tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4620119931492662582024-03-13T18:16:21.154+00:00The wisdom of the crowd.Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comBlogger23125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-32703448323308630292023-04-11T13:00:00.010+01:002023-04-19T20:10:10.873+01:00Artificial Intelligence. The cause for concern is political. Who will control it?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">A.I. is suddenly in the news as a tool
for humanity, for good ends or bad. I've been having lots of fun
with my new mate "Bard", Google's own "Large Language Model" (L.L.M.). Many pundits predict, rightly, that this new technology will be the mainstay
aggregator of humankind’s collective wisdom for decades to come, exceeding
the impact of other hyped tech fads of late, such as “virtual reality headsets", "space tourism",
"the internet of things", “driverless cars” and “the Metaverse”. Jordan Petersen predicts the university is doomed. A friend of mine called Martin produced an 92 page tender for his company written by ChatGPT.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">As some readers may know, my interest in these L.L.M.s comes from my development of Wisecrowd, a mobile app that aggregates online data, analyses it and adds some A.I., mechanically. For Wisecrowd the data is collective judgements drawn from players of a online game, for L.L.M the data is pretty much everything accessible on the internet. Both types of robot data interrogators face the same regulatory issues, specifically concerns about responsible ownership and control. These concerns are part of a wider conflict between rulers and ruled, neatly described by Matthew Goodwin, in his Values, Voice and Virtue book.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">The significance of the new A.I. language bots to political debates quickly becomes clear when I started asking my new friend Bard some questions. It seems to have really thought about the request, delivering a distinguished looking answer in seconds. Now my daily intellectual company is transformed overnight, (no disrespect to Jo). </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">It's like having the brightest person in the world on your shoulder, always switched on.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm17k0THetubJ5pL1cAdDBl6eHz3FKzsHuqY2PwMt4aQtceIKL14mxP2X9A5ly_9PhOtP4NW6ikj749o8VtSwXDivCE7mO93a5JPN74JpK5_Rp8GuNFjWuvBVgBoJT194iucOCvwK0kfJ9ybi6Is-yhSC3o0Ujra9z26MBscNX0d9-zI0NT0fuFgEkIQ/s1247/bard%20image.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="702" data-original-width="1247" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm17k0THetubJ5pL1cAdDBl6eHz3FKzsHuqY2PwMt4aQtceIKL14mxP2X9A5ly_9PhOtP4NW6ikj749o8VtSwXDivCE7mO93a5JPN74JpK5_Rp8GuNFjWuvBVgBoJT194iucOCvwK0kfJ9ybi6Is-yhSC3o0Ujra9z26MBscNX0d9-zI0NT0fuFgEkIQ/w400-h225/bard%20image.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">This tech is clever and powerful as well as polite. Cloud processing capacity seems no future bar on processing vast numbers of searches, using ever more complicated formulas across growing global datasets. </span><span style="font-size: 18px;">Presently, these thought robots are doubling their data search capabilities every few months, so Bard's not just a bright kid, its learning very quickly too. Needless to say, Bard’s retentive memory is flawless.</span><span style="font-size: 18px;"> </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">Within the new-found public focus on A.I. there has been insufficient discussion as to whether these powers and talents will be exercised
responsibly? Who will own the bots and how should they be regulated,
if at all? Eyelids flashing, blinking into the new dawn, it would be good if all humanity convened to agree how to react in our human-wide interest - very much in the spirit I hope of Elon Musk et al.'s recent request for a global moratorium on the subject. There needs to be a global treaty probably, a sort of Geneva convention for a new type of warfare. This stuff is just too important.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">The current A.I. talk is largely about how helpful or irrelevant
A.I. will be, set against human intelligence, and its potential impact on our
society, productivity, art and lifestyles. We are shocked that A.I. generated music is outselling human artists, although there is plenty of human creativity behind A.I. music. </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">Then there are the
entertaining red-herrings about the machines taking over the onward march of “technological determinism”- an old idea bequeathed from stoned discussions in the 1960s. The machines never did take over, which had been prophesied at regular intervals since the days of H.G.
Wells. Time may speed up or it may stop altogether as a result of
technology, but the machine never seems to take over from the man, under any realistic examination. The war never came either. There was no Armageddon.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">The issue is not the robots ruling us, but the transfer of power
(information), via A.I,. from one group of humans to another, who end up
controlling the technology. Man devises the system, the system didn't
devise him. War isn't inevitable. Man can prove remarkably resilient and has managed to organise sufficient supra-national governance such as NATO and the United Nations to stave off war.. He likes having control
of the machine’s buttons. The buttons definitely work, he knows that, but for the benefit to
all of us they must be kept working, and not sabotaged by the owners or controllers for their
own private interests, or smashed up by Luddite regulators on the grounds of an
impending mechanical apocalypse. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">Data aggregators like the Bard and ChatGPT are no different to the
original internet search engine structurally: simple aggregators of our own humanity's
collective wisdom turned into data packets, and then restrung in pretty,
generally well-written English. Who is responsible for what goes into the
machine and what comes out the other end are the owners of the
technology. In principle, the closer the owners are to the general
public, the better, because it's not fair on the general public if humanity's
wisdom is controlled by a narrow, special elite, be that corporate, government
or both. It’s also dangerous. For “the Wisdom of the
Crowds" to be effective, </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">a liberal media is essential. If
private interests can control the data, amounting to the entirety of our common knowledge base, and
the output of the bots across every subject of humanity, they’re likely to frig it in their own interests, if their past form is to go by, looking their sanitation of first generation search engines and social media. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">This brings me to my biggest fear of all: A.I. can be given by the owners a
political bias, easily. That would threaten the machine's positive impact on our own breed’s
survival and relegate the technology to just another channel for one group of humans to hector another</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">... I'm thinking in particular of Davos-types. Toe-curlingly
earnest middle-class elites taking control with missionary zeal; pushing
forward globalism, political correctness, international labour markets and slightly
tired Keynesian economics. I fear most of these bots, given whose
constructing them, will take this particular colour, packaged as ever as Universal Truth, no dissent tolerated. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">The primary job of A.I. will not to be establish a clearer idea of
what Truth is, but support a particular view on the world from many. It
should be left to us for us to choose which version of the truth we prefer and
there must always be choice. Hopefully, thanks to competition between
A.I. bots of different political hues, we can hope for some natural regulation through
supply and demand, the good choices winning market competition and the relatively sane customer (crowd) would have a chunk of the power. I also think we have not yet seen how the bots will develop short-term without any global leadership of the industry and universal rules. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">There are other approaches to aggregating collective wisdom which may differ from the L.L.M. bots methodology, but achieve similar results. For example, for many years now I have been associated with a mobile app called Wisecrowd (which has never been delivered yet). It's part online social game, part opinion poll. The product draws opinions and knowledge from the players of a game, applies some formulas or algorithms and then returns to the player with the A.I, which are rankings of comparable user submitted photographs of anything by category. Eventually, this game will rate reliably pretty much any "people, places and things" stuff out there - based entirely on perceived public preferences and some theory that "the many are smarter than the few" (under certain conditions). LLMs and Wisecrowd both exist to add intelligence to the world, mechanically, hence could be well-described as "Artificial Intelligence". The process is exactly the same for both - 1) aggregate data, 2) analyse data, 3) report back to customer with his data, improved - with the added artificial intelligence. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">(For those interested (potential investors), I hear the Wisecrowd project is 'oven ready'. The front and backends have been fully specified. It will cost £750,000 to build apparently, and be launched and run for a three month trial. So if you want your very own ChatGBP product, one can be yours for just £750,000! If you would like to get in touch, please email albert@addlestonebowls.com. You will be sent a presentation, including the business numbers. This would be perfect for a gaming operator looking for some differentiation in the social gaming space, benefiting humanity. It might suit the market-research industry because its a quick, cheap and easy polling mechanism which makes being a respondent, fun. For the gaming industry Wisecrowd offers rigour and relavance. For the polling industry, it offers the chance to make their opinion polling more interesting through gamification. </span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;">The emergence of talk about LLMs being successful has breathed a bit of fire into my belly about Wisecrowd and this is an idea that really needs to happen now, defining the regulatory space as it goes. I thought I had got Wisecrowd out of my head and was enjoying some lawn bowls. But the prospect of greater forward momentum with wider A.I. bot development has bolstered my estimation about the likelihood of Wisecrowd getting launched and maybe some more work for me down the line.)</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">Yet I fear for the Wisecrowd bot that he may be throttled at birth or permanently censored one day, just like Bard could be emasculated on</span><span style="font-size: 13.5pt;"> welfare
and safeguarding grounds alone. Regulation I predict will be subsumed under a wider
debate about the culture wars and the role of the elite to protect the masses,
speaking directly to the current debate between the rulers and the ruled. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">The alternative pluralist model sees each bot not as an arbiter of
wisdom but a competing view from which we pick. Unless we chose this
pluralist model, we are left with the nightmarish Orwellian vision of the
future where “the party is always right” so the A.I. too, must always be right.
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">To this aim, as per 1984, “every record has been destroyed or falsified,
every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street
building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is
continuing day by day and minute by minute", until the modern dream of
ending all forms of “offence” in human discourse is ended, the ultimate goal of
cultural Marxism, no longer economic equality but safe cultural spaces for all.
This apropos Orwell quote was splashed across a double-page spread in the
Telegraph last week, prompting me to think about the links between PC debates, artificial intelligence and the Wisdom of the Crowd idea - and also Matt
Goodwin's new book that examines emerging new conflicts between rulers and
ruled.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">In his 1940 review of Aldous Huxley's Brave New World, Orwell
wrote that "the democratic principle has no meaning unless the common man
is capable of thinking for himself." (Incidentally, Bard told me this quote, I think he likes referencing Orwell).
For man's healthy self esteem, A.I. will benefit as a tool to
help him think for himself, not pretending it can replace the thought of us
humans. If we believe in the right to think for ourselves as pretty
basic, we must ensure that we adopt sensible rules for the bot operators - i.e.
support a pluralist, unfettered free media. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">"The problem are the bot operators! Don't trust them
with damn anything! They don't want to operate the system for you but for
themselves! Cultural Marxism is their shaky ideology demanding heavy regulation to address inequity and unhealthy power
relations written through our culture and civilisation as per Foucault. And we have already
been through this before with internet search and social media. They don't trust you, anymore than
we trust them...”<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">With perfect timing, Prof. Matt Goodwin has written his new book on this
called "Values, Voice and Virtue"*. The book is a clear
exposition of new and emerging political conflicts between ruler v. ruled
today. Now is the key moment when the rules of the A.I. game are
enshrined into law and precedent, dictating the management of our civilisation
between rulers and ruled for decades to come.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Which side wins control of the A.I. language bots will be at a healthy advantage.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; orphans: 2; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt;">See: <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Values-Voice-Virtue-British-Politics/dp/0141999098">"Goodwin
M.J (2023) .Values, Voice and Virtue, The New British Politics.
Penguin. </a> Matt now has 12,000+ monthly paying Substack
subscribers and I notice the book sold 2,535 copies in its first week, 2nd in the General Paperback chart.</span></p><p></p>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-16054293026487261092022-12-06T15:10:00.003+00:002022-12-06T15:13:31.106+00:00Some Bowls Club - Addlestone Victory Park<p><br /></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b> </b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><br /></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX69PgNvhcvgIYDVeAFY_6prBJQNaua6B1XLrpc1P_2mOymnbRKnXgwRIrPCdXQQ3zF6S-g5eRP8PbMjfXtlAZvmmePwpc2CSEEGlvDIxeGnyFrnBlYfSTR7nJSD_SWeHebKM-Bt5eIwU4MWrDsQXAwg80Ap0NBkfOs9NVm7v3aQO89AoeeAPR0JW2eA/s3125/base_logo_white_background.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1875" data-original-width="3125" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX69PgNvhcvgIYDVeAFY_6prBJQNaua6B1XLrpc1P_2mOymnbRKnXgwRIrPCdXQQ3zF6S-g5eRP8PbMjfXtlAZvmmePwpc2CSEEGlvDIxeGnyFrnBlYfSTR7nJSD_SWeHebKM-Bt5eIwU4MWrDsQXAwg80Ap0NBkfOs9NVm7v3aQO89AoeeAPR0JW2eA/s320/base_logo_white_background.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><b><br /></b><p></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Submission for the
Runnymede Borough Council Civic Awards </span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">(Sports Club of the Year)</span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">December 2022.<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Secretary and Treasurer: Albert Tapper.</span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Headline Summary<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>From five members to over one hundred in 18
months. <o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>Winner of the Bowls England “Story of the
Year” Award. <o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>Over 1,000 locals attend Jubilee “Party in
the Park” and Open Day (the largest in the Country).<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>A new community café opens attracting an
average of 50 customer transactions and £150 sales a day for trial period
12.03.22-14.11.22.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>Disabled and learning difficulties bowls
started. <o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>The largest Junior membership section in
Surrey emerges.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">·<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]--><i>New self-funded plans to reinvigorate Victory
Park and boost local community.<o:p></o:p></i></span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Lawn bowls is a sport in crisis and communities built around
local clubs are imploding. Of 183 Surrey
bowls clubs in 2001, only 118 remain.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn1" name="_ednref1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> The number of English bowlers according to
Bowls England has declined from 150,000 twenty years ago to just 80,000 today. And the demise of Addlestone Victory Park’s
Bowls Club had been dramatic too. From
over 100 members in 2001, it was reduced to just five by March 2021. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Before the 2021 Season started, the remaining members held
an emergency meeting, voting 3-2 to stay open.
Here at least was a chance to try something new – the “gift of
desperation” as the Club Secretary described it - to overcome five perceived barriers
to recovery: <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">1)<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->An old-fashioned club management that had made
the Club inaccessible and excluding.</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">2)<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Local borough councillors threatening
“consolidation” of local council clubs.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn2" name="_ednref2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">3)<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Declining public engagement in pubs and clubs as
people “hunker down” at home.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn3" name="_ednref3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">4)<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->The negative public image of lawn bowls as “old”,
“slow” and “boring” and an unappealing playing experience.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn4" name="_ednref4" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">5)<span style="font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span><!--[endif]-->Covid-19.
</span></p></blockquote><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">The problem with bowls, if one is honest, is of its own
making. It is not the fault of the
public, the Council<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn5" name="_ednref5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
(most clubs think subsidy is a right<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn6" name="_ednref6" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>) and
Covid – or why were the golf clubs suddenly full post-lockdown? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Victory Park, like so many one-hundred year old bowls clubs,
was trammelled by sclerotic structures, out-dated and defeatist attitudes, a
lack of hospitality, arcane dress-codes, and a phobia of modern technology,
particularly social media. The only
aspects of the game that didn’t need changing were the flat green, the curving wood
and the long standing, well-evolved rules.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Into Action<o:p></o:p></span></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">The Club did have £3,000 in the bank. By June it had spent every penny on an all
-or-nothing Open Day and rent to the Council.
The Open Day was heavily promoted in social media, especially local
Facebook groups. 100 free cream teas
were given away to bring in the crowds.
New members were encouraged to join with a £10 annual membership offer, reduced
from £100. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">It worked. Twenty-three
new members joined up and fixtures that had previously been cancelled were reinstated. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Unfortunately, some old attitudes remained, but one
incidence of bullying by a Committee member precipitated change. On
safeguarding grounds, a full meeting of the Club’s new membership was called in
August 2021, which voted unanimously for a full Committee change.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">At the same time the whole club voted by a margin of 87 per
cent to adopt new guiding values of “Accessibility” (Opening the club up to all
the public) and “Inclusivity” (making everyone feel welcome and at home within
the Club).<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn7" name="_ednref7" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">A third value of “Financial Self-Sufficiency” was also
adopted. To be a community asset and not
a burden on local taxpayers, it was felt the Club should be self-supporting. Runnymede Council (R.B.C.) estimate it costs
£16,000 to maintain the fine turf and Clubhouse every year. The Club is committed to meeting these costs,
becoming fully self-sufficient, paying commercial rents and all its own
maintenance within five years. In 2021
it paid a total of just £2,400 to R.B.C.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">By the end of the 2021 Season, the Club’s paid-up playing
membership had grown from 23 to 36. Via
Bowls Surrey<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn8" name="_ednref8" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[viii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
news of the goings on in Victory Park had now reached Leamington Spa,
headquarters of Bowls England. Here was
a pioneering Club with reversed attitudes that offered new hope for the
sport. It was shortlisted from over 100
nominations to the final three for the “Bowls England Story of the Year Award”,
and now subject to a national vote. The
Club placed park legend, the spur to change and now President, Barrie de Suys,
87, at the heart of its bid, not least for his Hannibal-like heroics walking
2,400 laps of the park in Lockdown, raising £10,000 for the RNIB. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Campaigning successfully within the supportive local community,
using social media, local BBC Radio Surrey and Sussex (twice), even broadcast
television to get the public to vote for Addlestone’s very own Captain Tom and
its amazing bowls club. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">It won the national award (see video evidence). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">But the job was not finished. In April at the start of the 2022 Season only
23 of the 36 members had paid the new membership fees, hiked to £100. This was barely enough members to fulfil a
now lengthy fixture list<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn9" name="_ednref9" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
and the Club no longer had any funds to offer subsidised £10 memberships. With the award won, and amazing community
goodwill, something was needed to maintain momentum, uplift membership and thank
the locals for voting for the Club. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">£3,000 of funds<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn10" name="_ednref10" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> were
raised to hold an “Open Day” in May and a “Party in the Park” for the local
Community to celebrate the Queen’s Jubilee in June (see video evidence). The Club’s new Sponsor, the local Gingerbread
Man Bakery, provided 600 boxed afternoon cream teas at a reduced rate. Team England Commonwealth Games para lawn bowler
Gill Platt hosted the Open Day with Disabled Bowls England, themed on the
inclusivity of Bowls for disabled persons.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn11" name="_ednref11" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">200 attended the Open Day, making it the largest bowls club
Open Day held in England in 2022.
Astonishingly a staggering 800 locals attended the free Party on
Thursday 2<sup>nd</sup> June (see video).
All the cream teas were given out within an hour, but everyone over 18
got a free glass of Prosecco or two. The
most exciting result was the number of children (160) who played bowls for the
first time on the green. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Before long the playing membership<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn12" name="_ednref12" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
had quadrupled to over 100, including 18 Juniors and three additional needs
bowlers<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn13" name="_ednref13" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>. On top of that, the Club now has 24
non-playing social members – in total it now has 128 members.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn14" name="_ednref14" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> A Club lottery registered with the Council
raised a further £1,100 and funded five new sets of junior bowls for the new
junior members, four of whom are now playing for Surrey Under 25s. The Club has run for the last two years a
weekly roll-up for Adults with Learning difficulties and this year offered a
month of coaching for all its new bowlers, from a fully qualified Bowls England
accredited coach, Carole Baker. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">The Club continues to excel at online marketing and public
relations. It has over 750 friends and
followers on Facebook, a presence on Twitter, TikTok, Instagram and a YouTube
channel with videos attracting 24,000 individual views, currently 3,000 a month.<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn15" name="_ednref15" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
It has a new website – addlestonebowls.com – and new branded merchandise with a
logo designed by a 17 year-old member.
It engages in the science of bulk personalised text messaging to a
database of over 1,000 local supporters. However, the extraordinary growth in 2022 and
transformation of the Club’s image has another cause – the new Clubhouse
community café – a glowing example of being accessible. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Clubhouse Café <o:p></o:p></span></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Surveys of park-goers had shown a desire for food and
beverage provision. It was hoped that
the Club could eventually draw more people into the park – and towards bowls –
by opening a clubhouse café. This was
sanctioned by RBC as part of a trial to assess demand for further capital
expenditure on facilities, in a bid to Surrey County Council’s “Your Fund
Surrey” community development programme.
In thirty weeks of operation, it has gained a five-star food hygiene
rating<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn16" name="_ednref16" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
and generated £9,000 in total weekend sales<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn17" name="_ednref17" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
of Gingerbread Man Bakery product, from an average of 46 customers a day<a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_edn18" name="_ednref18" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
– nearly all of whom had never been inside the forbidding territory of a bowls
club. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">Whilst Club turnover has grown from £5,000 to 2021 to
£25,000 this year, little financial profit has been generated, but the exercise
has proved the solution to the Bowls Clubs image problem. For ninety years it had been trying to keep
the public out. Now they were being
welcomed with open arms into the Club’s inner sanctum. How many bowls clubs would tolerate this? The high barriers between the public and the
bowls club came crashing down – people saw with their own eyes that the Club
was not intimidating, inaccessible, exclusive, old, slow and boring.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">The Future<o:p></o:p></span></u></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">However, park footfall remains stubbornly low, and doubts
remain that new hospitality by itself, and a thriving bowls club, is going to restore
the fortunes of Victory Park – or will prove financially self-sufficient by
themselves. New non-bowling attractions
are required, to cross-fertilise new hospitality facilities and the existing
bowling. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;">In return for the promise for self-sufficiency within five
years, the bowls club is now asking the Council for deregulation and planning
permission for further development as part of a new park management plan. In particular, the land adjacent to the Bowls
Club - currently an underutilised croquet lawn area – could be developed as an
18-hole miniature golf course reflecting local history. This will be a multi-sports bid, with a new
clubhouse, café, licensed bar and changing rooms and tea facilities for park
footballers. £500,000 of capital
expenditure will come from an expanded Your Fund Surrey bid. The new facilities will be run commercially
by a new Community Interest Company (CIC), constituted and regulated to serve
local people, including supporting all park amenities, including the bowls club,
serving school groups, local business hospitality customers, other community
groups and residents of Runnymede of all ages and needs. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p>
</p><div><!--[if !supportEndnotes]--><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><br clear="all" />
</span><hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
<!--[endif]-->
<div id="edn1">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref1" name="_edn1" title=""></a><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[i]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span> Bowls
Surrey records. A large proportion of
these loses were Council owned clubs like Victory Park.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn2">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref2" name="_edn2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[ii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Peter
Winfield, Runnymede Borough Council’s then “Head of Green Spaces” reported that
the Community Services Committee were concerned at the levels of subsidy given
to local council clubs (four within four miles) with “dwindling memberships”
and “and little effort being made to open themselves up the local community”.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn3">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref3" name="_edn3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[iii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> <span style="background: white; color: #202124;">Putnam, Robert. 2001. “Bowling Alone”.
London, England: Simon & Schuster.
This argument, otherwise known as “declining social capital”, reinforces
defeatist attitudes within lawn bowls, that nothing can be done, and that the
bowls product is not to blame – the public are for hunkering down at home and
not going out.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--></span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn4">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref4" name="_edn4" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[iv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Bowls England public research for “Fit for the Future Strategy”, 2021.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn5">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref5" name="_edn5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[v]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> In
September 2022, Runnymede Borough Council was awarded the inaugural Barrie de
Suys award for services to the Club, presented to Shaun Barnes. See attached picture.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn6">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref6" name="_edn6" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[vi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
<span style="line-height: 115%;">For
two good examples being Luton West and Staniforth Bowls Club. See the
depressing story of Luton West (notice the composition of its membership – all
white, older and male) – see: </span><a href="https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/health/historic-luton-bowls-club-at-risk-as-council-pulls-funding-3509219"><span style="line-height: 115%;">https://www.lutontoday.co.uk/health/historic-luton-bowls-club-at-risk-as-council-pulls-funding-3509219</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> and also Staniforth
here </span><a href="https://www.thetfordandbrandontimes.co.uk/news/23105366.relief-bowls-club-saved-closure-rent-hike-compromise/"><span style="line-height: 115%;">https://www.thetfordandbrandontimes.co.uk/news/23105366.relief-bowls-club-saved-closure-rent-hike-compromise/</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> . Accessed 10.11.22</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn7">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref7" name="_edn7" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[vii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
A safeguarding and welfare officer was subsequently appointed and took a Coach
Bowls “Time to Listen” Safeguarding course.
See attached PDF file.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn8">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref8" name="_edn8" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[viii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached letter from the Secretary of Bowls Surrey (S.C.B.A.) in word file
format.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn9">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref9" name="_edn9" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[ix]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached PDF file.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn10">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref10" name="_edn10" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[x]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Particular thanks to local Addlestone County Councillor, John Furey, for a
large donation from his Community Allocation Budget. Funds were also raised via the Club’s new
“Clubhouse Café”.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn11">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref11" name="_edn11" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> See
Youtube video. <a href="https://youtu.be/dM28GWYpcE4">https://youtu.be/dM28GWYpcE4</a>
. Many thanks to Egham Bowls Club who
loaned Addlestone their Bowls Royce wheelchairs.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn12">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref12" name="_edn12" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
Not including 24 social members.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn13">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref13" name="_edn13" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xiii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached excel file.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn14">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref14" name="_edn14" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xiv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> See
attached excel file.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn15">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref15" name="_edn15" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xv]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> As
of November 2022.<br />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br />
<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn16">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref16" name="_edn16" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xvi]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached image file.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn17">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref17" name="_edn17" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xvii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached image file.<br />
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<!--[endif]--><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div id="edn18">
<p class="MsoEndnoteText"><span style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: medium;"><a href="https://d.docs.live.net/04985a14dd25732c/bowls%20campaign/Runnymede%20Borough%20Council%20documents/bRBC%20Civic%20Awards%20Sport%20Club%20of%20the%20Year%202022%20-%20Addlestone%20Victory%20Park%20Bowls%20Club%20Submission.docx#_ednref18" name="_edn18" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[xviii]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
See attached image file</span>.<o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-74533172173258645802022-01-18T08:30:00.009+00:002022-03-10T21:54:08.196+00:00The wonderful story of Barrie de Suys and the revival of a local bowls club.<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Winner of Bowls England's "Story of the Year" Award, 2022.</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Watch Barrie pick up his award here:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7OukyCz_kaE" width="320" youtube-src-id="7OukyCz_kaE"></iframe></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Listen to Albert and Barrie on BBC Radio Surrey:</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/BwXRB3p-m6s" width="320" youtube-src-id="BwXRB3p-m6s"></iframe></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><p></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><div><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjWLUrFaJ-c" target="_blank"><br /></a></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span></span></div><br /><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Many locals consider him the original Captain Tom. Yet Barrie
de Suys, 87, is little known beyond his hometown of Addlestone on the outskirts
of London.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> <span style="font-size: large;"> Now the winner of Bowls England's "Story of the Year 2022" his</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> unsung achievements during Covid may become a morale booster to a wider
audience.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Further, his revival of a flagging
council-owned bowls club – from five members at the start of 2021 to forty
by Season's end – could become a template for other struggling council clubs to follow.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Addlestone Victory Park Bowls Club has endured a long and protracted
demise since 2002 when it had a hundred members and Barrie last served on its
Committee as a successful Captain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By
2020 local Councillors began moves to end the subsidy of the Club (effectively
closing it down).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They felt it was
making little effort to recruit new members.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Increasingly, reports began to surface of unfriendliness at the
club and members leaving as a result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On one sad occasion a newcomer to bowls was turned away at the gates for wearing shorts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Barrie himself had retired from outdoor bowling in
2016.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had arthritis in both shoulders
and lacked sufficient power to deliver the bowl more than half the required distance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His medical record also included heart attacks and
heart surgery.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2018 he had a
replacement hip operation which left him with a pronounced limp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">But his legs were generally sound and strong, as was his willingness to serve the local community. </span><span style="font-size: medium;">At the start of lockdown in 2020, for everyone's mental and physical health, Barrie decided to draw people
into the Park by walking around its 965 metres perimeter for charity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;">By October he had completed a staggering
2,400 circuits - stunning the local community who took to cheering him on.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">A</span>bsent on only
three days (due to heatstroke) he raised over £10,000 for the RNIB.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He took several falls on his way but waived
away those who told him to stop.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
total, he covered 1,440 miles, far further than from Land’s End to John
O’Groats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The oldest person to complete
that trip previously was aged 74 – yet Barrie received only minimal local press
coverage for his accomplishment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEDJd6ssCFPebuIjmzgysiC3RtQ9GXTDlsbbn5VcjOrpbqptR_UkIL4ROHFnYmX5uFDYWdjUg3PpYFcUDJJdNcy6Yiv3FXATcTD37A61InanpIyuynau3cNdNDN3c9DxDz8P-VNxxMOne0kV4TLVupofqCMwzsdJx84fHVSv-uuNleV3O8gSofREel4Q=s395" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="395" data-original-width="395" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjEDJd6ssCFPebuIjmzgysiC3RtQ9GXTDlsbbn5VcjOrpbqptR_UkIL4ROHFnYmX5uFDYWdjUg3PpYFcUDJJdNcy6Yiv3FXATcTD37A61InanpIyuynau3cNdNDN3c9DxDz8P-VNxxMOne0kV4TLVupofqCMwzsdJx84fHVSv-uuNleV3O8gSofREel4Q=w400-h400" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Barrie en route, with police guard.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Barrie was deeply concerned about the state of his old club
in the Park, of which he was still an honorary life member. The immediate
problem in 2021 were the boards around the green which had become rotten and deemed a health and safety hazard by the Council.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">They would
fit new boards if he painted them with creosote.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This he did, single-handedly, twice
over.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">This involved two months
pre-season work in March and April, working from 9am to dusk.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Meanwhile, the Club decided to invest all its remaining
funds in recruiting new players via an Open Day, with free cream teas and
subsidised annual memberships.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> For advertising</span>, it followed what proved wise advice from Bowls England: to market
the occasion in local Facebook groups and use the stock Bowls’ Big Weekend
digital images (both of which were free).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">For the 25 new members who signed up at the Open Day, Barrie
quickly became a totemic figure: the ‘Duracell Bunny’ was by now gardening
around the green every day, also umpiring when called upon, and coaching a new
Adults with Learning Difficulties bowling group he helped set up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was a figure of inspiration and awe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He drew the new group of players together as
the Club’s figurehead like a kind of glue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>All the new players were united by his tangible goodness and
leadership.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He became the yardstick by
which to measure decent behaviour, in short, he set the standards and they were
high: ask not what you can take from the Club but what you can give.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Park-goers were drawn into the Club to see
him and give him food and drink.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>People
joined up because of his local reputation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Pressure mounted on him to play again, and his frustration
grew at not being able to get his woods even the minimum length, right-handed
or left-handed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In recognition of his
service to the Club, it gifted him a mechanical bowling arm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">At first it seemed to be wasted precious money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The bowls were fired off in a wide arc from
mid-wicket to extra cover, and still nearly always too short.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he never gave up and within a month,
through hard practice and grit, he learned how to use his new tool with his
wonky shoulders, even delivering running shots and the</span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;"> occasional drive.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">For new bowlers and
weaker bowlers in the Club, giving up had suddenly become more difficult.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">If Barrie could play, so should they.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">His spirit and</span></span><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial;">encouragement kept them playing.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">In July 2021, out of 34 playing
members, 28 played, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">with the remaining six off games, injured.</span><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">Amazing numbers, considering over half the
Club’s members were new to bowls that year.</span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Barrie’s most important contribution of all was to change
the direction the Club was heading.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He
was the spur to much needed change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He embodied some
new values that seemed to be emerging at the Club.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Inevitably there was some internal tension between old forces and the emergent new forces. He led the later, looking to revive the still inward-looking club by opening up as a public service for all</span>. Measured by his high example, old behaviour began to look wrong and out of place, and change inevitable.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Barrie precipitated the creation of a new
Committee with ten positions quickly filled by new members.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps uniquely, he helped push for the Club
to adopt three new values, to guide it into the future, which were approved by
87 per cent of the membership in a vote:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: arial; mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">“Accessibility - previously known as sport for
all”.</span></span></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">“Inclusivity - every player and spectator is
made to feel at home inside the Club”.</span></span></li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large; text-indent: -18pt;">“Self-sufficiency – helping the Club become
asset for the local community as a Council maintained club, not a burden on
local tax-payers”.</span><span style="font-size: large; mso-spacerun: yes; text-indent: -18pt;"> </span></span></li></ul><p></p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">This was the makings of a successful strategy to survive and
recover.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But tactically, the Club was still
struggling to recruit local players.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
became apparent that endless videos of match highlights were not making the
required impact in local Facebook groups.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>People were not interested in bowls per se it seemed, perhaps due to its
national image, perhaps due to the product the Club was offering, less likely
because people were ‘hunkered down’ at home, an idea which smacked of
defeatism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If this was really true, why
were the golf courses suddenly full post lockdown?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Communications with the local community started to change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly, a suspected lost pet parrot filmed
on the Clubhouse balcony hit the mark with locals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A video of the Adults with Learning
Difficulties was also well received.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Then it was decided that Barrie must be the best content, himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A tribute video to him went viral locally,
seen by 15,000 locals and liked by nearly 200 in the town.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was also kindly shared by Bowls Surrey,
and Barrie finally got some recognition from a wider area and more members
joined up.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnxYZp64qhDA7NtLaBjPaFs4QL9c632aE8hr5nVwC2PMxVMJOgWhpdqwcmhLpdZfeFKIjMmUi86i1xwTUgssneJdrybhL5siF0wsZvkHqzeLn2OdzDs5zX1dNZkPw5TPXeTk-yWpvTr-NnzUOwSgTnCBUlLuL4VXxiPTFQitIldTt4GCIuuYYwyydMrA=s4032" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img border="0" data-original-height="3024" data-original-width="4032" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgnxYZp64qhDA7NtLaBjPaFs4QL9c632aE8hr5nVwC2PMxVMJOgWhpdqwcmhLpdZfeFKIjMmUi86i1xwTUgssneJdrybhL5siF0wsZvkHqzeLn2OdzDs5zX1dNZkPw5TPXeTk-yWpvTr-NnzUOwSgTnCBUlLuL4VXxiPTFQitIldTt4GCIuuYYwyydMrA=w400-h300" width="400" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Barrie de Suys working at the green, December 2021.<br /><br /><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In conclusion, the Club has nominated Barrie for three
reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly and most importantly - he
deserves it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Secondly, it’s felt his
story and how he brought new players into the game is instructive for
others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And lastly, the Club is critically
short of funds for marketing, and public relations like this is always
free.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Winning this award would help
generate more interest in the Club locally, both in online and offline
media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It would help relations with the
Council, and the story will help the Club raise the funds we need to subsidise
our memberships and develop in other areas. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">In 2022, f</span>or every ‘over 60’ member the Club must pay £62.50 to the Council, and for every ‘Under 60’, £125.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These are precisely the same amounts the Club charges in membership
fees, so the Club currently runs at a loss.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
future, Addlestone Victory Park must either charge more, difficult in a
relatively deprived and predominately working-class area, permanently fund-raise or develop reliable new income streams such as providing food
and beverages to local park-goers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Donations to the club would be hugely appreciated by anyone
who wants to support it, directly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Please call Albert (Club Secretary) on 07427 664 600 or via email:
albert@addlestonebowls.com.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every pound
given will subsidise the memberships of new bowlers to the game who cannot
afford the fees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span>Barrie was elected as the new President of the Addlestone Bowls Club in
August 2021, unopposed.</span><o:p></o:p></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><i><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"><span><br /></span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhULDDcAB_4BRZVVhscdJ5hjeTmBT-ReMwwsXvLnkt4O6BrxOCoR5vmC-VsWiqLunxNivN9pGVEumZCSWTlqke0D1FMZMEu8iGz_BmQFOhd20Khxyrx9wnJS9lJq88Kfnohtktiidm_obXLoByGoI-abr5wRAkqwVkCRv5MzfhyVMEm1BrRe3QSqeOESA=s2048" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1536" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhULDDcAB_4BRZVVhscdJ5hjeTmBT-ReMwwsXvLnkt4O6BrxOCoR5vmC-VsWiqLunxNivN9pGVEumZCSWTlqke0D1FMZMEu8iGz_BmQFOhd20Khxyrx9wnJS9lJq88Kfnohtktiidm_obXLoByGoI-abr5wRAkqwVkCRv5MzfhyVMEm1BrRe3QSqeOESA=s320" width="240" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Barrie recieves his British Citizens Award, House of Lords, September 2021.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">See also <a href="http://www.addlestonebowls.com">www.addlestonebowls.com</a></span></div>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-49772966918175257372020-10-29T16:51:00.122+00:002022-03-10T21:46:24.750+00:00The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election and Political Prediction.
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><p style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial;"><b style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Pt.1. Failing to predict.</span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-outline-level: 3;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">$3.7 billion was a lot to offer. This
was the amount Caesars Entertainment agreed to pay for William Hill this month.
The stated target of the Vegas-based gaming giant was the British bookmaker’s
‘trading expertise’, to expand their sports betting business during a post-prohibition, covid era, boom-time in American online sports gambling. </span><b><o:p></o:p></b></span></p><p style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial;">
</p><p style="background-color: white; background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Every month seems to deliver a new record
level of sports betting in America. $3 billion was staked in September
2020, with new-blood Yankee sports bettors providing healthy trading margins of
5-10 per cent. But just after the purchase of William Hill, Caesars
should have got the message that British bookmaking practices may not be ones
to trust, long term; and the bookmakers themselves, not worth the money. </span></p><p style="background-color: white; background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p></p>
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: normal;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">Bookmakers
manage political prediction markets badly</span></i></span></span></p><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: normal;"><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">Hill’s much vaunted
market-making and public relations abilities were put to test this month, on the
hardest of all betting markets to manage, but the blue ribbon market: the U.S.
Presidential Election. Over £200m has been staked by bettors on British Betfair alone, on the contest decided next Tuesday night. And this is the market which the rest of us are actually
interested in, especially now, and I imagine Caesars were too, although as yet,
political betting is curiously illegal in America. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">But over in
England, where the practice is legal but where the spectre of safeguarding
regulation looms like the Sword of Damocles, at times during October, not a
single British bookie was brave enough to stand above the parapet and offer
his services, including William Hill. Betting on the Presidential
Election had been suspended.<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/462011993149266258/4977296691817525737" name="_ednref1" title=""><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">[i]</span></a></span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The bookies’ </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" lang="EN">reason for existence is managing predictions</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">, or rather adding up and averaging the predictions of
its customers, the general betting public. That is where their
wisdom comes from. The crest on their Coat of Arms could read: ”The Voice of the People is the voice of God." If the bookie takes on the public, thinking he knows more than
they do, in the long run he will lose. That is a short history of
British political betting over the last thirty years.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">As Sporting Index’s political trader in the 1990s, I used
to get regular rollickings from Alistair Hunter, the venerable head trader, for
conducting too much academic research, running insightful novelty markets and
losing money. When the limey bookies get cock-sure, they always get skewered by the
punters who know more. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Less insightfully, we took bets on how many sips of whisky the Chancellor would take, in
the House of Commons, during his budget speech, as well as how long he would talk.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">
</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">When the dour Scottish Presbyterian Gordon Brown gave his first speech, he had us reaching for the Johnnie Walker's.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">
</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">We had based our 'expert' prediction on the form of Brown’s predecessor,
the clubby, genial, wide-smiling, Kenneth Clarke.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">
</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">We knew Clarke drank heavily, as many as 6 or 7 sips during his speeches
at the Dispatch Box.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">But Gordon Brown
was a teetotaller and we didn’t know it.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">In
the end he didn’t even touch his glass of water.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> Needless to say,</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> the crowd of punters knew. They
sold the market heavily, i.e. went low on his sips.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> </span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">For ever sip he didn’t take, it cost Sporting
Index £20,000, and we had originally estimated four.</span> </span></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: large;">
</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: large;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: large;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; line-height: 150%; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The best political bookies hoover up
information from their customers. They know who the long term winners are, so they give
disproportionate attention to their behaviour. They listen to their
customers. If they listen to the wrong people, such as academics and
journalists, they lose. And the good bookmaker talks up his losses and never issues tips on his own markets.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Ladbrokes lost an estimated £2m on the 2015
election, and William Hill reported a £1m loss in their official results, eye-swivelling
amounts when you consider how much is staked on politics today,<a name="_ednref2"></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_edn2" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">[ii]</span></span></a> and the fat margin built into bookmakers’ prices. It’s not so much what
they lost, but what they should have won. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">The bookmakers own stewards’ inquiry in 2015 was brief:
“We trusted the polls and the expert analysis. The customers got
lucky.” But yet more was lost on Brexit and Trump in 2016, doing the
same thing, i.e. swallowing the media and the academic account of the
referendum or election, rather than understanding what their customers were
saying with their bets.</span><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">As documented in this blog ad nauseam, when managed
correctly, the betting market is a more reliable guide to what will happen in
politics than: a) fast-whirring academic models of many breakable parts, b)
voter intention opinion polls – a snapshot of opinion, not a prediction in any
case - and c) the views of political pundits, i.e. tipsters, the most
unreliable source of all. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">A market price prediction, particularly on a matter of
public interest, often draws up more relevant information from a wider range of
varied sources than expert opinion can, essentially because it has more
tentacles. The market, as Hayek put it, is a vast information storage system.
Its tentacles are the bettors, now motivated by winning a game, to think
harder about what will happen, largely ignoring emotion and their own
prejudices - if they are good and going to win. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">In this regard, Dominic Cummings was right when he said:
“political news makes you dumber.” Right now, we need political
betting like never before, as an alternative to polling and the pundits, to
answer questions like: What was the impact of the first televised debate
on the race? What is the effect of
Donald Trump catching covid on the outcome of the Presidential Election? Indeed what will be the effect of covid on the
result? At the time of writing, all I have heard is conjecture on that
last question, and a resounding silence from political scientists who prefer to
start their work, after the event. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">But
multivariate analysis of opinion poll data would reveal rigorous conclusions, especially in ‘time-series’, modelling the shock of covid on the American electorate over
time, rather than at a snapshot of time. British political science doesn't have the will or the skill to do it - with a few notable exceptions - to understand what will happen in politics using Bayesian methods, although it would have predicted the result of the Brexit referendum. Understanding how support for E.U. membership moved over time was what my PhD was about. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I found the dedicated study of political prediction is largely confined to a small 'prediction unit' hidden away in a dirty peeble-dash bungalow cum Nissen hut, at some obscure university in South Wales. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Meanwhile, in the gleaming towers of the City, these difficult skills of Bayesian analysis are the norm. They are used to predict economic outcomes, such as the movement of interest rates over-time, currency price fluctuations, as well as the effect of shocks like covid on everything economic, and how these effects will dissipate into the future.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Political correctness infects accurate
insight</span></i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I listened to the Today programme the morning after Trump's covid diagnosis, hoping to find out about its impact on the election. Even the sports news is about
politics on the Today programme, even the insulting racing tips at the end are
somehow selected for the topicality of the horse’s names, so the ghastly little
toad who does the sports news can share a political joke with Nick Robinson,
the main presenter, thus reducing them to a segue to another item. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Unsurprisingly, I was none the wiser about the election after a
miserable three-hour long ordeal. Now I will revert to checking the
odds instead, for a numerical ready-reckoner of the impact of news on the
predicted result, as I have always done, particularly at a time of crisis and
seismic fast-moving events, should the prices be made available.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I shouldn’t be the one saying bookmaking works, that it
should be a rival to mainstream media in educating us about politics. The
bookmakers should be saying it. Their job is to represent the magical
mechanic of the market - the soothsayer of probabilities, i.e. their product - and their customers - the two things that make the wisdom of crowds work. They
have to believe in their product and defend it to the hilt. I don't think
they have that fight in them. They don't understand of what their sometimes socially useful trade can deliver, instead they descend to where only frivolity lies: cheap product sold with cheap TV adverts. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">It should also be the public’s choice whether they bet on
political affairs, even on an election when the pale cast of death hangs
overhead. It shouldn't be taken away from them by their
bookmaker. The element of death must be calculated in too, we can't
be squeamish about this. Incapacitation from fighting the election
is about a 10 per cent chance I would think, but this is the component of the
betting decision which the bookmakers say is distasteful. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face=""Verdana","sans-serif"" style="background-color: white; background: white; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt;">Then there
are the regulators at home to consider for the bookmaker, and a perverse desire
to play up a sort of virtue in </span><i>not</i> doing their
job – a new and unlovely feature of British bookmaking. Bookies now flock to
the scent of progress, smelly little orthodoxies really, like blue-bottles to a
dead cat. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Political progress used to be about the steady empowerment of the people, such as giving everyone the vote, including women and the working class. But modern political progress - cultural correctness - is a swindle. The end is never
reached, conflict will go on and on, there will always be something more to vanquish, until the scythe of progress comes down on
the bookmaker himself, in the form of an outright ban, on safeguarding grounds. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Or the British bookmaker succumbs to the heat of Vegas. An old colleague and friend of mine called Humid, who sweat a lot, found even the more temperate climes of Gibraltar too much. He was a gigantic man, as so many bookmakers are, and we were all heavy drinkers on the Rock, where a litre of Smirnoff was a fiver and more expensive than the Red Bull we mixed it with. One steaming morning, </span><span style="font-size: medium;">seperated from the air-conditioning, on a cigarette break outside, Humid keeled over in the sun. He was successfully medevacked back to the U.K. - but was never to return to Gib. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">I simply offer this as a warning to any bookmaker who may be Vegas-bound. The problem with the place is the problem for the bookmaker. The best bookmakers in my experience, like the best players, are addicts, it takes one to know one, but, increasingly, they must practice their trade in some of the most dangerous places in the world for them. With Vegas, top of the list.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: center;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">***</span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The old code of the bookmaker, once his only code, was “not
to bet on human suffering”. It used to
only apply on bets about someone actually dying.<a name="_ednref3"></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_edn3" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">[iii]</span></span></a> A
betting market on Trump dying, would, I suppose, be unacceptable, rightly. But now the rule seems to apply to any factor
involving suffering, within the betting calculation of a wider, more important, and different outcome: i.e. he may die – and that will affect the result - so the whole innocent election
market gets written off. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Of course the market’s importance goes way beyond the
health of one individual, even if it’s the President. I’m sure he didn't mind too much, he knew the stockbrokers were doing the same thing, just not downing tools. It’s major ground to concede by the bookmakers, not
assessing Trump’s survival rate, but I am a hard liner who thinks we should be
firing all our guns at a time of crisis. The biggest guns are the crowd.
The covid tracing app is another good example of employing the crowd, to police
covid, using new technology. The government, either sabotaged it or
didn't give it the support it needed, not trusting the behaviour of the crowd
and fearing the reaction of the civil libertarians at The
Telegraph. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">We should be betting on covid rates of infection in my
opinion, because that will give us the best idea of what is going to happen to
covid numbers – better than any single epidemiologist’s view, based on another
expert algorithm of many breakable parts. Never mind the new
middle-class morality of not causing offence. Let’s save lives, we are in a crisis like a war with five-hundred people being killed a day. Imagine them, in a field, like the fifty at the end of The Great Escape: and then they are all mowed down. Sometimes, I needs the horrific mental image, of something we can manage, to knock myself out of denial and easy sweet talk about civil liberties. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">And where exactly does all this new found sensitivity
about politicians end up? There is animal suffering involved in
horse-racing. Horses are killed regularly. Does that
apply any less than human suffering? And if hunting is wrong because
human pleasure is derived from killing a fox, why not ban horse-racing, which
is also for our entertainment? </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I fear the bookmakers have opened a door here that will
not be easy to close. But the real problem is this. They have never
properly made a case for political betting as a tool of
insight. Having social value is the best bulwark against regulation,
as well as hooking the government into a share of your profits.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Even Betfair, not really a bookie but the facilitator of
exchange betting between players, suspended its market on the result this week,
announcing: “We do not feel it is right to provide a market, given the
circumstances,” continuing either piously or deceitfully, probably deceitfully:
“our thoughts are with the President and First Lady at this time.” </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">This after matching £100m in bets, with the company Political Analyst and PR man, Paul Krishnamurty, telling all its customers
Biden was a great bet throughout the campaign. Report the market, it is
more interesting. Tell the world what you are finding out about politics
from your customers. If not, public expectations on the election
cease to find expression. We are left with the experts view
only. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">One thing we do not want more of is the expert view.
In any case, lines from political pundits jump into place like iron
fillings obeying the magnet. If the expert view on the election turns out
to be the correct one, we already know what that view is. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">If you aren’t already aware of the British mainstream
media view on the 2020 U.S. Election, I think at least my American readers will
find it interesting. What the limey British media thinks of you, my
friends. It's one ginormous sneer after another I’m afraid. I promise you, many of the British public like you a
great deal, certainly more than the French or the Germans. They would like
Trump too, because he’s an entertainer and best appreciated as such,
particularly when he is making an otherwise dry political point, - I liked his
joke about the North Korean leader, “Rocketman” - perfect - but I’m afraid the
British public has been ‘got at’ by the British broadcasters. No one says
anything too positive about Trump on social media, out of fear. The elite view
is largely synonymous with the B.B.C. view. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Here it is, I heard it on the Today Programme:</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">It’s just too downright uncertain to get involved with
political predictions, at all. American politics right now is too
turbulent nay chaotic. It’s ill-tempered divisive and now ‘polarised’
(i.e. extreme). Accurate information is in short supply and the
Russians and the Chinese are trying swing the election with misinformation. The public are for
one conspiracy theory or another, and generally not very well informed on the
details of the debate. But this is a unique election where the usually strong
incumbency advantages do not apply. Covid has created a new and
dominant issue of competency tackling the virus. Given what is going on
over there, this can only be bad for Trump. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Over 200,000 Americans have died from Covid in six
wearisome months, over seven million have been infected, and now the President
has gone down with it, four weeks before the poll on 3<sup>rd</sup> November
and is in and out of hospital. Jon Sopel, the BBC’s North America
Correspondent,<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/462011993149266258/4977296691817525737" title=""><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">[iv]</span></a> says
"the White House are scrambling like crazy to work out what to do” – a bit
like the Telegraph newspaper: “the power cord has been yanked out of his
campaign” (02/10/20) – i.e. you lot are rudderless and without a
plan. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Meanwhile, U.S. GDP has tanked 30 per cent; a third of
California has been incinerated, and the country is on the verge of a
constitutional crisis, if not a well-armed civil war. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Unsurprisingly, whilst a prediction is never made
explicit by the BBC, against such a backdrop any listener would call it as a
Biden win by default, backed up to some degree by his lead in the voting
intention polls. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The British punters, following it’s pundits,
under a sustained barrage of undisguised English sneers about Trump, the
President you voted for, forget the average American - the voters - cares
less about politics than is made out, they are not either for Antifa or the
Pretty Boys, and not all America is rioting. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></i></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;">An alternative academic view of American
public opinion<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">American public opinion is generally moderate,
conservative and authoritarian, as my favourite political scientist put it, an
American himself, called Morris P. Fiorina. He is no fan of Trump.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The American public have been like that for some time,
political change is over-egged at the public level, only the political elites
have become significantly more radical, and this is merely a reflection of how
political choice is working in America. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">It is how policies are packaged together and sold to the
public in the American two-party system. Given the circumstances, it’s quite
rational for the two rival candidates to move apart - usually it is rational
for them to move together, like two ice cream vendors on a long beach will both
position themselves together in the middle, assuming sun-bathers are evenly distributed along the length of the beach.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">However, American politics is changing currently in this
respect, with a realignment of policies around ‘identity politics’, and away from economics. The Democrats are now
more pro-free markets in their economics than the Republicans on questions of
global trade. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">In short, what is
happening in American politics is natural change, it is not so mad, bad and
sad, if you want to analyse it honestly and dispassionately. The American
political system is more likely to produce more leaders like Trump these days, leaders
that play on the new political divide, because it is a more convenient way to
package themselves - successfully. If he loses, it will be because of the coronavirus, not his populism.</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium;">I follow Morris P. Fiorina who says the culture war
thesis is over-egged at the public-level. It’s the politicians and the media who
have moved apart to the point of conflict.
Culture wars aren’t emanating from the public as the writers in the
Telegraph tell us, or as Douglas Murray argues in his infuriatingly entitled
book, "The Madness of Crowds". The mass of
the American public is not that interested. It’s in the middle and could go
left or right. Will they buy the liberal package to the left, or the
populist package to the right? We will know after this election whether
the challenger liberal package of Biden will take the crown. </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I do not however, underestimate how important questions
of competency are as drivers of vote choice. But there must be some
uncertainty of how much covid will provoke change in the ballot box, beyond a
referendum on populism and liberal packages. Covid is surely a big ‘shock
to the system’ and the more Trump moves the debate onto the territory of culture
wars, the better for him. He has a built-in majority on that
front in the U.S.A. </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></i></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">State of the prediction market</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span>As
of Monday 5<sup>th</sup> October at 21:30, Trump had just 33 chances in 100 of
winning in November, according to Betdaq, Betfair’s smaller rival.
Currently, on the 29<sup>th</sup> October, the prediction is similar. The
expert models predict that Trump has smaller chances, the most celebrated expert
being Nate Silver, who gives Trump just 13 chances in a 100. Either the experts
or the markets have got it wrong. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-size: medium;"><u1:p></u1:p>
</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: white; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><span><span style="font-size: medium;">For William Hill,
Biden’s chances leapt from 56 / 100 before the first T.V. debate, to 63 / 100
after it.<a name="_ednref5"></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_edn5" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="text-decoration-line: none;"><span style="color: black; text-decoration-line: none;">[v]</span></span></span></a> When
the news about Trump’s covid diagnosis came in, and then he was hospitalised,
they suspended the market, but Biden’s win probability rose to a high of 67 /
100 on Betdaq who bravely didn’t suspend their market. It fell back
slightly to 64 / 100 when Trump announced he was leaving hospital and has
fluctuated around that mark since. In
betting terms he is a 2-1 on shot. Stake
£200 to be returned £300, or lose it all if Trump wins, as of 29<sup>th</sup> October
2020, less than a week from the Election on 3<sup>rd</sup> November.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p></span></div></div><p align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: small;"><br /></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPdThDzOrhqKm6PyndegsbkLoC8a_TZ9RuIMI0pbNUFYLAkQcP4v86LxHnG43qnz52mPr-zEpPzO1w36uAlaT78_ngyhkE67xAQmfqQX06ppetB2Izn-RRujm4aGAIXB-KZvLrHDwFWrJI/s1334/betfairsuspendspresmarket.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1334" data-original-width="750" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPdThDzOrhqKm6PyndegsbkLoC8a_TZ9RuIMI0pbNUFYLAkQcP4v86LxHnG43qnz52mPr-zEpPzO1w36uAlaT78_ngyhkE67xAQmfqQX06ppetB2Izn-RRujm4aGAIXB-KZvLrHDwFWrJI/w281-h500/betfairsuspendspresmarket.png" width="281" /></a><br /><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: x-small;">Betfair suspends it market on the Presidential Election, 02/10/2020.</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: verdana; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: medium; line-height: 115%;"><b>Part 2. A silver lining... alternatives and an opportunity.</b></span></span></span></p><div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Since leaving Betfair in 2009, I have been engaged mainly
in political science and attending rehabs, doing an MSc and then the unfinished
PhD. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">However, academia did stoke my interest in prediction
games. I became increasingly
disenchanted in academic approaches to prediction, ones that didn't acknowledge
the crowd’s wisdom and relied too heavily on expert assumptions, and also the internet
polling industry, upon which the academics relied, who refuse to gamify their
product because they felt it was below them. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Pollsters are already fully occupied bodging their online
polling data to correct for chronic biases in their self-selecting internet
panels of respondents. There is only one
vote intention opinion poll that is ‘gold standard’ and that is a random-probability
survey, where every single voter has an equal chance of being selected for an
interview – like the British Election Study. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">But these more representative surveys of opinion are extremely rare and expensive. They involve canvassers visiting most postcodes, leaping over garden fences,
and avoiding dangerous dogs to access the randomly selected interviewees. So we only get the gold standard very rarely,
and the opinion polls currently showing wide-margin leads for Biden over Trump,
are nearly all internet polls. Not only
is the polling and market research industry not moving forwards with new products, it is moving
backwards with its existing offering. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The problem, specifically relating to the U.S. Election,
is that it takes a particular type of person to even contemplate filling in a
twenty minute survey for fifty cents, by signing up for one of the panels. This type of person tends to be either
conscientious (middle-class) or a penny-pincher – they tend to be of a type that
likes voting Remain or supporting Joe Biden.
On the other hand, Brexiteers and Trump supporters are generally 'risk-takers' in profile -and
if anything, more likely to have a bet - which can also create biases in
political betting, but not such serious ones. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The pollsters admit the problem now, after it was the
primary conclusion of the highly credible Sturgis Report on why the opinion
polls have been failing in the last five years.
So they have to correct for this, by giving greater weight to working
class respondents they are under-sampling, but the amount of correction is pure
guesswork and assumption on the part of the expert psephologists. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">The problem is exacerbated by the new cleavage in British and U.S. politics which causes disturbance to their assumptions about
which groups of voters support which candidates on which criteria. More working class people up North are supporting Boris Johnson and
Brexit, and more middle-class voters, who voted Remain, are supporting Labour. Brexit sped up this realignment in Britain, as has Trump in America. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Believing internet polls requires trust in
the abilities of these experts to be omniscient about the scales of these changes, and also
to know the likelihood of each new competing group to turnout and vote – ‘differential
turnout’ is another reason why polls aren’t predictions and shouldn’t be
treated as such. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">Maybe low-risk taking Democrats will be less likely to vote than red-neck Trump supporters, at a time of covid, we just don't know. We really don't know why turnout in this election is so high, already, before polling day, and whether this favours Biden or Trump, it either suggests the wind of change is blowing, or it's because of a positive effect from Trump's livelier campaign, on his more passionate supporters. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">But the dilemma of political prediction today is really
this: the bookies know or care little about insight, and the polling people
know little about customer engagement and fun. The future is the Yin and the Yang – gamified
polling. I am confident that neither industry has the capacity to deliver that;
a missing mechanism needs inventing, probably by someone with a missing
mechanism himself, that both gamifies polling yet still delivers accurate and
reliable insight. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Consider how pollsters and bookmakers get on together. Pollsters are particularly snooty about
bookmakers, who in return revere pollsters in a fawning way. I remember on some
high floor at the L.S.E, at the big academic prediction conference on the 2015
English General Election, a nervous bookmaker from Ladbrokes pitched up and was told by the
academics, in a form or a question, that the betting public were biased on
politics weren’t they, and the bookmaker, with a weak embarrassed smile, meekly
agreed: "political markets are not a good guide to what may happen", he said. I noted his words down at the time. There is nothing easier for
bookmakers to desert their trade and make peace with the British Establishment,
and nothing more sickening. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">They are running from the fair representation of
their customers, who they think are stupid.
They even publically pronounce during this campaign that too many of
their customers have backed Trump and the price is wrong, and jobs are on the
line if he wins. And that is their PR
man! </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">It was at that L.S.E. conference that the scales fell
from my eyes about expert prediction, and I saw how the assumption-laden models
were in reality as toothless as carp. But
worse was the distain in the room at the alternative: asking the public what
they think will happen. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">I sat next to an esteemed American professor called
Michael Lewis-Beck, and he looked slightly stunned too. Of the twelve academic models on display that
day, all attempting to predict the 2015 election – the only non-expert ‘crowd
wisdom’ prediction came from a German called Andreas Murr. Andreas' model turned out to be the second most accurate of the twelve when the results
came in. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I left my PhD to look at social gaming product, in the
belief that I had a way to improve on what Andreas Murr was doing, aiming to
rectify the maladies of social scientists, market-researchers, pollsters,
bookmakers and of course the media, with an alternative. A compelling game is required, which aggregates
crowd wisdom but does not involve players losing money and ruining lives, and
delivers the insight to make it truly social. It’s not an easy nut to crack.</span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Gambling companies’ disingenuous social
gaming developments</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">This - changing the product - if you have the time and the effort to think about it, would be the honest and
socially responsible thing for bookmakers to do themselves. </span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Consider how Philip Morris has got
surprisingly honest about the dangers of smoking, and is investing heavily in vape
technology. Or the oil majors, Shell and Co, they really are investing in renewable energy. But social games to the bookmakers are nothing to do with
social responsibility. Rather their
games are designed as a wolf in sheep's clothing to the unsuspecting players.
Witness the iTV Seven and Sky’s Saturday Super Six – both built by Sky Bet, a
British bookmaker now owned by the Canadian The Stars Group, </span></span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><span style="font-family: verdana;">owned in turn by Flutter, who also own Paddy Power and Betfair.</span> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Somewhat astonishingly, jaw-droppingly really, they are a funnel
for customers in the other direction to the one Philip Morris is taking,
i.e. from vaping to smoking. In this form of social gaming, the player starts off in a harmless world, a bit like
being safe in a clean white walled vape room, rather than down the pub, with free entrance,
free liquid, and all legally promoted on the TV by Jeff Stelling.</span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"> </span></span></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Then he finds himself, all of a sudden, in
the betting green forest of the wolf, via the back door, lured in with
a free bet. I know revenues of £800+ per player are an average for
an effective online sports betting and gaming site - once you have rinsed the
same players through the casino (the really hard stuff) and then fed them to
the Swedes in the online poker room. That's like chucking chunks of red meat
to lions.</span></span></span><span style="font-family: verdana;"> </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Apart from the bogus commitment to social responsibility,
the big problem with the bookmakers version of social gaming is the same problem
with fixed odds betting, the industry ignore the potential of their games to
provide insight as well as entertainment.
As ever, the games are frivolous. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">I'm not so interested in synchronous video game play
counting as social gaming, nor eSports, 'skill gaming' or Fortnite - because these games generate no
socially useful insight. Puerile social casinos are the same, along with
fantasy sports. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The Dream11 fantasy game has its merits, currently
operating on the IPL – to you Americans that is the Indian Premier League cricket
tournament. Players pick a team before an individual match starts, from which players on
both sides will perform best, with points for wickets, catches and runs and double for your Captain, a sort of tie-breaker. Dream11 are clever because the IPL is principally about player
performance, not team performance, among the public. The territory of
fixed odds - “who will win?” - still of course has a value, but the gap between
when the bet is struck and the result being known is yawning, which makes it
less compelling. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;">There are more exciting games to play, too. What we need now in sport is a new creation
to re-engage the crowd who have been locked out of the live sporting venues,
that is healthy and represents the public in sport in a new way. Something better is needed than the insult of
artificial crowd noise, controlled by a single sound mixer technician; who has
a habit of sending the viewer the wrong way by pushing the ‘loud cheer’ button
when the batsman has drilled it straight to the fielder. Every time it happens, we are reminded that
the expert is no substitute for the real crowd who know more, collectively.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">The Indians are getting their kicks out of sport in a new
way. They love the Dream11 game, it has
well over 100 million users (that's 7 per cent of all Indians), and had enough
cash to buy the IPL's lead sponsorship in 2020. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">However, Dream11 play the same trick on the
regulators as Sky Bet, having been classified as 'games of skill' rather than
gambling by the Indian courts. The free play tournaments get promoted in the
broadcast, including directly by IPL commentators as part of their deal. But
the prizes are tiny with the free play games. Players soon want to move
onto the cash tourneys where you can lose real money but the bigger returns
make the whole exercise worthwhile. Of course, that all happens away from
the eyes of the broadcasting regulator.</span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Where it ends for the punter</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">When the player is under the cosh of the bookmaker, in
some dark place, then finally accepts that the online casino has beaten
him, he is rendered powerless as the bookmaker puts £1,000 cash into his casino
account, a few days later, on non-withdrawable terms. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Mechanically, he returns to the laptop to play, and then
cannot stop. I know this used to happen, I used to issue the money
myself. We simply had to keep the best players playing. In an online
casino 90 per cent of the profits come from just 10 per cent of the customers,
and they only last two months on average until they know they are beaten, stop
playing and maybe try online poker because it’s a game a skill – and all
gamblers think they are skilful. Shower these lapsing players in cash and
they will give you more cash back. If you give an alcoholic a bottle of scotch,
after he has stopped drinking for a month, he is sure to buy a crate from you
in less than a week. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">This is the duplicitous theory that lies behind the player
reactivation strategies of online casinos.
It sits uneasily next to the fine words of the Betting and Gaming
Company spokesman announcing political betting market shutdowns out of
‘respect’. Respect your customers first.
Bookmakers are best off staying out of the morality game altogether,
unless it is to change their product. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><i><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">A fixed odds bet on the U.S. election?</span></i><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">If the market is infected with the mainstream view, their
view-taking is there to be punished by you - if you agree with me - although of course
it’s still a dangerous course of action, something I no longer advocate - having a bet. There
are safer ways to draw socially useful information from a prediction market,
which will be more entertaining. The something missing is coming my friends, but in the meantime, if I were to bet,
my rationale on the 2020 Presidential Election is similar to my tip to back
Brexit at 11/4: the odds reflect the established view of the media and
academics, it's not one hundred per cent punter sourced. The result will probably be closer to the betting market forecast than what the pundits are saying, and the academics and the pollsters.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This does not mean I support Trump, I have my
sneaking, and weak sympathies for anglo-philia which may help Britain. I like the way he never looks down on the public. He is flawed like I am flawed, like miserable little egotisms together. There is a certain realism and honesty about that, in a back-handed way. But a populist government is a
contradiction in terms.</span> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">What I mean by this, is that real populism, if we are heading in that direction, is about people governing themselves, a vision of the future if you like, not a boot stamping on a human face. New technology and good science can empower the people to
govern themselves, without recourse to coercive government, even lockdowns. Any government needed in such a State would be truly old-fashioned liberal,
crediting the public with good sense. This is an English tradition laid down by John Locke, and before that Aristotle the Greek at the dawn of Western civilisation. It is what made our civilisation, and how we survive in hard times. </span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><br /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif"><br /></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">Notes to reader:</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: verdana;">I will give you more thoughts about social gaming
and my version of it - i.e. engagement + fun + insight + safety, in 2021.<br /></span> </span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">If you are interested in my approach to social gaming, or
have any thoughts or would like to get involved, please contact me at </span><a href="mailto:albert_tapper@hotmail.com"><span face=""Verdana","sans-serif"" style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">albert_tapper@hotmail.com</span></a><span face="Verdana, sans-serif">. <br /><br /><o:p></o:p></span></span></li><li><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: medium;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="line-height: 115%;">For more
discussion on the U.S. Election story and political prediction, please listen
to my interview on the excellent "Gamble on" U.S. podcast, on
political prediction and the U.S. General election - here: </span><span face=""Verdana","sans-serif"" style="color: black; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><a href="https://soundcloud.com/gambleonpodcast/episode-114-betting-handle-records-alexander-westgate-dispute-election-betting-with-albert-tapper">https://soundcloud.com/gambleonpodcast/episode-114-betting-handle-records-alexander-westgate-dispute-election-betting-with-albert-tapper</a></span><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="line-height: 115%;"> - 25 minutes and 30 seconds into it.</span></span></li></ul><p></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-size: initial; text-align: left;">
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span face="Verdana, sans-serif" style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: small;">Ends / 6,100 words / edited, 30/10/20. </span></p></div><div>
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<hr align="left" size="1" width="33%" />
</span></div></div><p align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; text-align: right;"></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-family: verdana;"><span face=""Verdana","sans-serif"" style="font-size: small; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 13.5pt;"><br /></span></span><p></p><div class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; background: white;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: small;">
</span></span></div><p>
</p><p class="MsoEndnoteText" style="background-color: white; background: white;"><span style="font-family: verdana; font-size: small; font-weight: normal;"><a name="_edn1"></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_ednref1" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">[i]</span></span></a><span> With the exception of Betdaq, which has continued
trading.<a name="_edn2"><br />
</a></span><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_ednref2"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">[ii]</span></span></a><span> Over
£100m was matched on the Betfair exchange before it was suspended. Eventually, over £550m would be matched.</span><a name="_edn3"><span><br />
</span></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_ednref3"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">[iii]</span></span></a><span> It still
goes on, but underground. I know a private group who run a
ten-to-follow game, if one of your selections dies in the calendar
year, you win 100 points minus their age. </span><a name="_edn4"><span><br />
</span></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_ednref4"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">[iv]</span></span></a><span> BBC
Radio 4. Friday 2<sup>nd</sup> October 2020.</span><a name="_edn5"><span><br />
</span></a><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20wisecrowd%20general/Bookmaking%20in%20trouble.docx#_ednref5"><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;">[v]</span></span></a><span> See Las
Vegas Review Journal: </span><a href="https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/election-odds-taken-down-after-trumps-positive-coronavirus-test-2135622/"><span>https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/election-odds-taken-down-after-trumps-positive-coronavirus-test-2135622/</span></a><span>. Accessed 05/10/2020.</span></span><span face=""Arial","sans-serif"" style="color: #222222; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><div style="mso-element: endnote-list;">
</div>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-92030062977680874892019-01-17T08:11:00.011+00:002023-02-05T14:01:23.197+00:00Bohemian Rhapsody and its critics<div align="center" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;">
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-outline-level: 2;"><b><span face=""arial" , "sans-serif"" style="color: #222222; font-size: 9pt;">Note: Since the piece below was written, the film Bohemian Rhapsody won four Oscars (2018-19), although not Best Picture.</span></b></div>
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***<br />
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<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">As I went through the doors into Screen
Six, the first sound was a triumphal wall of graphite-strengthened
guitar. I was in time for the 20th Century Fox opening fanfare at the
beginning of the film, Bohemian Rhapsody (Oct. 2018). T</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">he original fanfare had been dubbed over by Queen
at a higher voltage. Right from the start, this drummer-boy dub seemed to
define the whole exercise, a prelude for what would be stirred emotion, but a
pointless one for the critics. I wasn't
sure why. </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">From
then on, in the following two hours or so, every melody that came along was an pleasing acoustic memory. </span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Now with pictures, it was important and interesting history. The loud
sound and sonic effects, the ones you only get watching films in cinemas,
amplified my euphoria. A week after its opening, I had viewed it
three times, and each time the images grew stronger and the whole point of all
the emotion, clearer. And with
things going wrong in Britain right now, don't we just need a soothing
spoonful of the Freddie Mercury syrup?
Britain’s favourite syrup. It's rather comforting to be reminded,
that we, the British, are still the world's finest exporter of culture,
especially when we team up with Hollywood.
Us Anglo-Americans again! A-A… A set…
American-Airlines… Pocket-rockets…
Two-Aces in the hole! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I am writing about the unashamedly popular art of
Queen. It’s the genuinely heroic tale of Freddie Mercury, delivered by
the best professionals in the film-making business, costing fortunes but hated
by the mainstream critics. In its first month, not one professional
critic awarded more than the seemingly obligatory three stars (out of
five). I saw about 20 three stars. And now today, in early January
2019, it has, 'surprisingly' according to the B.B.C., won two Golden Globes:
one for best film drama, and the other best drama actor (Rami Malek). The
earlier tocsin-ringing by the critics was ignored by the Golden Globe voters,
who sided instead with the public. The public had rated it an '83 per cent'
on the useful IMDb app, compared to the miserable ‘49 per cent’ <i>Metacritic</i> average
of the reviewers. I suppose those producers in Britain and Hollywood are
just that much closer to the public than the reviewers, who have all sorts of
personal motivations for what they write.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
<br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">And show those producers in Britain and Hollywood a
hero, and they will write you a tragedy, full of emotion and tug.
Deliveries of emotional art are much sort-after, but elusive. What really
helps is a good subject. They are equally rare.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Find a good subject and show those producers, Britain and Stateside. All that glitters is gold is the rule. Someone like Alex Higgins with his potting will do. Take a peep at Dave "The Devilfish" Ulliott on the poker tables. Show them Bobby Fischer with his moves. "I only believe in good moves", Bobby will tell them, not "psychology" - in 'Pawn Sacrifice' on Netflix. Show them T.E. Lawrence and his Arabs, or
Freddie Mercury with his musical anthems and strutting about. Genius and
illness must be conjoined. Then perhaps, perm a
light tale, from the array of those terminally unique, and your chances of
delivering artistic success improve measurably. In sales or votes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">But
don't get slaughtered in the process, like they all did. The critics will
accuse you of making frothy and shallow emotional appeals to the public. They
will call your work 'populist art' rather than 'popular art', preferring the
former. 'Populism' is the elite's own term, loaded with danger, delivered
with a distaste for an emotional public, or those pied-piper populists, like
Farage and Trump, who serve the public.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">One is never sure whether the pied-pipers are to blame, or the public,
or both.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">Generally, critics of populist
culture target the producers, not the audience, more so than critics of
populist politics </span></span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">who readily and brazenly dismiss the public’s
views.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
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<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwgpdRjjzE7SiZ2jUHPrM83dN9ZSD4FYhxCEkaGHLzKPpT3Xx32wcyBMGaacSbnjQnnPXY5gKX78i9Fm8peZNpDbBm-bWSS1QOHE_28t6QKuSqQRYpsrQhD3oLgjZH7ppEqd6ouB1xAdrv/s1600/freddie-mercury.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="529" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwgpdRjjzE7SiZ2jUHPrM83dN9ZSD4FYhxCEkaGHLzKPpT3Xx32wcyBMGaacSbnjQnnPXY5gKX78i9Fm8peZNpDbBm-bWSS1QOHE_28t6QKuSqQRYpsrQhD3oLgjZH7ppEqd6ouB1xAdrv/s320/freddie-mercury.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">The
realism of the film: Freddie Mercury at Live Aid. Or is it Rami
Malek? </span></div>
</div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">No
copyright infringement intended. Source: </span><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/werandomwriters/home/culture-and-creative-writing/music/rock/freddie-mercury"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">here</span></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span>
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">With this film, t</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">he totemic lines come regularly
and in-time - evocative now in the light of Mercury’s death - lines which,
frankly, defy rational explanation. But we still know what they mean
when Freddie Mercury the man rears up to deliver them, and knowing enough of
his story: Who wants to live forever? Everyone wants to
put me down. Ay-oh!... Ay-oh!... Ay-oh. The Show must go
on! Keep yourself alive! I want to break
free. Don’t stop me now! Does anybody know what we are looking
for? Gordon's Alive! What are these lines
about? What does it even mean, “Bohemian Rhapsody?” asks Mike Myers,
who plays the music boss. “Nothing really matters to me, just
keep the sentences short, and don’t use a long word when a short one will do…
and add a new para ___</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
And add a track called: “I’m in love with my car.” The film reveals
the band management's pressure to publish that song, and it did indeed appear
in <i>A Night At the Opera</i> (1975) - ‘the machine of a dream’ -
the most expensive album ever made at the time. The vast money down
was a warning sign for the critics then – the cost – just like “10 years to
make, multiple directors” regularly comes into the critics sight-line with
Bohemian Rhapsody the film. They say good art is often spontaneous and
cheap to produce. Critics take themselves off to obscure film
festivals in places like Reykjavik to produce their kindest
reviews. With populist art however, being lavish helps greatly.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">The totemic anthems of Queen
– the band’s speciality and essential vigour – are lost on the new film’s mainstream
critics. Are they even mainstream anymore? They have always seen
Queen and its straightforwardness as rather vulgar, like Status Quo, when
measured against their own expert yardsticks: just a bit simple and
obvious. And the direct crowd engagement and <i>sing-alongs </i>to
‘We will rock you’ are: proper ugh and yuk. The material isn’t obscure
enough to dig their critic tentacles into, and tell us what it is all
about. We know already. It's an emotional procession or
something, it's enjoyable and meaningful to us in our own way. We don’t
really need the critics parading their talent for revealing hidden meanings,
and picking up on odd controversial remarks, when this show is so gloriously
simple, but, somehow, requiring a hatchet job. <i>The more you
blithely ram into us</i> the <i>same regurgitated brain-dead clichés</i> (ah,
both clichés themselves), – the more we don’t listen, or read, or watch.
The less we care. In the digital world, increasingly, people want to
choose their own stuff, on demand, and make their own minds up. And look
at the star ratings on Amazon or somewhere to determine what our fellow man
thinks, because that’s the most reliable guide for now, aggregated and averaged
up, rather than a few opinions of experts. But something new will
come along that's an even more reliable guide, mark my words!</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Clearly the censors deliberated long
and hard about whether Bohemian Rhapsody was a 12 or PG, eventually coming down
on the side of a 12 / PG13 certificate. What a discussion that must
have been! I’m glad I was out of the oak-panelled room, as the great and
the good of the British Board of Classification (another B.B.C.), no
pipe-smoking to be seen, but deep-sunken in their weathered leather armchairs
around the board table - ironically made of an (E.U.) banned material -
mahogany - itself of nuanced and much-analysed grain – opined on the nuanced
textures to the film. Or lack of them, probably. Whatever "nuanced textures" are? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Maybe they are only visible to a few
when the fog of reviews descends on art and glorious simplicity is
lost. I think the textures may have been about homosexuality and
drugs, at the highest level. And whilst we are now sanctioned to take
teenagers to see the film, and are grateful we may do so, the reviewers were
desperately upset! They (and Sacha Baron Cohen who left
the part of Mercury thankfully) seemed to want the film to have enough
drug-fuelled descent and lurid homosexual action to warrant an 18
classification. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I sympathise with drummer Roger
Taylor’s relief when they were rid of Baron Cohen. “We didn’t want
it to be a joke… we want people to be moved”, said Taylor recently, “as
ever… as ever”, he could have continued ad infinitum. But the
reviewers wanted their truth out, how Mercury challenged the prejudices of the
day: the film ‘could have been a little franker on Mercury’s gay
relationships’, lamented <i>Tim Robey</i> in <i>The Telegraph</i>. (Reasoned
conclusion: he didn’t sufficiently represent his homosexuality and gay
rights). What about how difficult it was to be an immigrant at the
time, from an obscure Parsi background via Zanzibar? (Conclusion: ‘he was a
victim too’ – B.B.C. <i>Radio 4 Front Row.</i>) </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
And here was the ‘missed opportunity’ ‘bedevilling the whole thing’ (<i>Telegraph</i>):
what might have been rather than what was. Jasper Rees, writing
in <i>The Spectator</i> (groan, has PC reached this far?) wanted more
of the feast of life, but the film was a famine: “Demoralising, the weird tale
of a Parsi immigrant, an astrophysicist, a dentist and an electrical engineer
is packaged as a succession of pre-digested clichés…” </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
I think this reviewer wanted a study of the whole band Queen, not Freddie
Mercury! </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Is he mad? <i>Keep the band away from the film altogether</i> should
have been the maxim. That this largely happened, is a tribute to the
humility of the band in their direction of the film. No one says
this, yet we know Mercury wrote all the hits as well as singing
them. The relationship between the “Mercury” in “The Band” is like
“Britain” in “The E.U.." Freddie is sort of in the band, but it’s
Freddie that really counts. He is the interest and the
spark. The appeal is always the person or the
country. Not the band or the E.U.. Both are only required
sparingly.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">That of course – ‘the what’s missing’ -
is the favourite tack of any reviewer; his pretext to talk about his own
creative ideas and mock idealism, giving up on the film itself, boring us all
senseless. ‘<i>Den of Geek</i>’ displayed in his review, another
tiresome habit of the critic: a penchant for comparison with all the other
films he knows about, to reveal his own very precise knowledge, and ability to
pigeon-hole within a continuum of all the other rock biopics he has watched and
rated. Den says “in essence, Bohemian Rhapsody is a greatest
hits album wrapped in the same package that moviegoers received for Ray, Walk
The Line, Beyond the Sea, and Jersey Boys (it’s lesser than the first two but
far superior to the later)”. Where will “Rocketman" (2019)
about Elton John, to be released next year, slot in, do we all
wonder? I hope it somehow weaves in Trump's use of the word
"Rocketman" as a description of Kim Jong-un, because it was
perfect. But I fear it's going to be a long time. A long,
long, time. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />When Rocketman is launched, expect its gayness to be analysed in minuscule
detail. And discussed, more worryingly, by the critics clutching a glass
of wine in the foyer, at the pre-screening in Shepperton Studios. That
was where, I presume, they had agreed to give Bohemian Rhapsody three stars -
"But no more!"… They had exclaimed in unison a couple of times,
"BUT NO MORE!", and were now rolling around with laughter, wine
splashing about, their spectacles gone quiffy so spastically did they roll
around. But, taking control of themselves again, they took in a deep,
long intake of breath whilst arching their backs to upright, specs nudged back
into place over their long noses. </span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Some hands were thrust into mainly skinny hips, jolting them sideways as
a result. They looked down
solemnly. Some placed a hand their chin.
They were chastening themselves from all their jeering, and feeling their
rancour. A guilty feeling probably, for being such a venal lot. But
once the ice was broken with the three stars business, the critics seized their
opportunity once more, to fire their best lines into the huddle, on how the
film fell short, and laughter erupted again. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><i><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span></i><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">The <i>Metro
</i>man</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> bemoaned Brian May and Roger
Taylor’s insistence on the film remaining ‘family friendly’. There was too much about the heterosexual
relationship with Mary (to whom he left most of his estate, b.t.w.
Metro). However, a friend with me at the cinema enjoyed that bit the
most – “every good film should have some love story” she
declared. </span><br />
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">And do people really want gay advocacy
and raw cock shoved down their throats... as I have just done to you? Doesn’t
it make you squirm and feel uncomfortable? I only say those words to
illustrate the point – I don’t like writing that sentence. And
shamefully I will not easily put politics before my popularity with
you. But I challenge any reviewer to say it, too, or if they really
mean it, to say this film is “beautifully gay” (and it is). I want
to see it on paper. From a progressive paper. <i>The
Guardian</i> would be nice, but not essential. I’ve never seen
that even in The Pink Times – I think I’ve seen “beautifully African” somewhere
and agreed, but never “beautifully homosexual”, although both are ugly and
generalising labels. They will do however for now, just to feel the
reviewer’s tolerance. For as long as he utters specious stuff such
as "gayness could have been explored further", I will remain
unconvinced. Such phraseology is needed
if one wants to name things without calling up mental pictures of them. Worse,
I will think the male writer is pulling a fast one, bathing in a warm virtuous
feeling of being ‘right on’, without paying the fare that is risking his
readership to get there – a sham signaling of virtue, not virtue
itself. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">***</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><b>George Orwell and the "Nancy-Boy" (Mandarin style) critics</b><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
This is the true enemy of promise that the 'Nancy-boy Poets' suffered from, as
described by George Orwell in <i>Keep the Aspidistra Flying</i> (1936)
and <i>Politics and the English Language</i>
(1945). Lots of words about very little,
Mandarin style done badly. Staleness of
imagery, lack of precision, dying metaphors, pretentious diction, always in the
passive, meaningless words untethered from real objects. The kind of
thing that 'those moneyed young beasts... write almost in their sleep', as they
glided gracefully from Eton to Cambridge and then on to the critic columns of
the old press, with no intervening time whatsoever. 'Money and Culture!
In a country like England you can be no more cultured without money than you
can join the Cavalry Club.' I think Orwell would have taken heart right
now, at least with the lowering of Old Media’s colours. There are good
things about our world today. Let's say it!</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Warming to my task, I plead to the reviewer, just say “raw c*!k” to show
honesty, but “C*!k and balls”, a dying metaphor, will not do. If you
want raw c*!k on celluloid, then just mention those words in ink why not, on
your own canvas, as a starter? Don’t be
disingenuous. Prove to us your true worth, not your double
standards. Don’t criticise a film’s taboos, whilst shying away from
them yourself, without even showing a picture, but as graphically as is
possible - just spell it out on paper! </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
The woman from the B.B.C. piped up that it was against the Trust’s
constitution or something, and the man from <i>The Independent</i> said
it was firmly against the editorial guidelines, even OFCOM. “I would
be sacked” he said. “Well come and write online then!” - thinking of turning rebellion into money: </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">“You can make good cash if
you write what we don’t get in the established papers, and people like it” I
thought, “although you may have to pay 63 per cent of it back as Universal
Credit tax."</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
I suddenly feel a twinge of sympathy for the mainstream reviewer; he’s
perfectly well, just caught in the whole wretched declining system of old
media. I say: “being a fit and healthy writer, in old media, not on
benefits… you are missing out on so much that is new and
interesting." This conversation did actually take place, with a
pro-reviewer friend, in a London Club of all places, on Carlton Terrace between
Whitehall and Buckingham Palace. 'Enemy territory' I suppose, but the
grand-old-enemy in the form of the Nancy-Poets, who have some sneering charm,
and nearly all are genuine public school and Oxbridge. I like the old
Nancy-Poets. Generally they elevate the aesthetic above the political,
and therefore are more interesting. Not this burgeoning new cultural PC
enemy who are more likely to be found in the Groucho Club, when not in Millbank
presenting B.B.C. Breakfast or 'Today'. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Worst of all is that ghastly
little toad who somehow manages to swap the sports news for sport politics
news, every time, at around 07:25, and then rounds of his bulletin with
farcical racing tips, disgracefully dismissive ones actually, usually drawn by
funny name or topicality, to round off the miserable little report about
women's cricket, the thin gruel of what's left of the B.B.C.’s 'crown jewels of
sport', and link back as quickly as possible to John Humphries.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Originally, this new cadre of the elite harked from Northern housing estates,
so the story goes. They had one attribute in common: intelligence. Therefore, arguments about meritocracy could
be employed to justify their promotion. They were made good (or less
authentic, depending on your view) via grammar schools, even comprehensives,
and then the red-brick universities.
This process was very much like a new car being put through the paint-shop.
Prior to this make-over of the best of the working class into MP material, Labour
MPs were ex-public servants or union men, their politics hewn from practical
experience. Likewise, Tory MPs got
practical experience of life via pre-political careers in business or in the professions.
Now, if the new cadre haven't already slipped quietly into the B.B.C. in their
early 20s, or slotted-in high up the civil service via the administrative grade
exam ('administrative' is civil service code for the top reaches), they will be
destined to be political researchers for a single-issue lobby or a Lord or an
MP; then policy advisers, always with the aim of becoming an MP
themselves. Only three per cent of current MPs have a blue collar background.</span><br />
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span>
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">We are talking only about the current non-creative side of
the new elite, the most dangerous side. Of course the creative
Nancy-Poets would never have dreamed of going into politics. Even their
direct descendants, the modern day critic, although more politically motivated
and very political in his or her writing, wouldn't fancy politics as a
profession, at all, either. That is for the new cadre of the politically
motivated, whose spirit intends to govern, rather than understand, who put a grimy revolver to our noses and growl “Be
like Me or Die!” To regulate rather than to create is their only mode of
operation - <i>regulare nec creare</i>! That could be on their Coat of
Arms. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
I felt grateful that I could write in my home territory of Addlestone, not in
this stuffy club, or in the dried-out atmosphere of a Millbank
tea-room. </span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I like to
get deep-down and dirty with my subject, by living, working and playing where
it exists. Poverty is what I am writing about and I find it here in Addlestone.
It is my gift that I was forced to report the matters of the poorer towns, from
the poorer towns, where writers are few on the ground yet excitement
abounds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Orwell knew the external treasures lay about, going down and out, but he didn't
have the helping hand of alcoholism to take him there. He was though,
always a physically weak man, riddled with tuberculosis by the end, with a
bullet injured throat yet still a smoker. Coughing and spluttering
through the dust, he became a professional ethnographer – learning about it, by
being part of it - rare and good. But his descent into poverty from the stellar
trajectory promised as a trained little-winner, then precocious Eton scholar -
was made out of political choice, not really circumstance - however much he
often pretended otherwise. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">For all his integrity, he played his literary
tricks, but hardly committed any offences. Where others may have
been found guilty of minor fraud, Orwell was of 'good moral standing' - so his
integrity gave him ample scope to play games. Highly entertaining ones
they were, for our benefit. He never spent very long down mines, or
as a plongeur in a Parisian hotel in the 1920s, or homeless in London, or
getting shot at (and hit in the neck) during the Spanish Civil War in
1937. But reading him you would have thought he had spent most of his
life ducking in and out of trenches or small-doored hovels, or bumping his head
as he struggled along the two-mile stretches of tunnel to the coal-face, a mile
down. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Coming up for his air, as soon as his notes were taken, the pencil was thrust
behind the ear, his lips were pursed below his pencil moustache, and he tried
to work out where the train station was. His tufted hair was a crest of
dignity combined with that long, earnest, but caring face, in his working
uniform of the ethnographer: a tall tramp's suit, slightly moth-eaten hairy
twill, patched-up; woollen tie, old Clydella shirt, looking around again,
before heading off to<i> another industrial town</i>.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">He hoped he would return after only a few weeks
more away, although the Spanish trip occupied him for months, as did Paris.
He usually resurfaced in the pleasing surrounds of a Hertfordshire village, or
in the care of a champagne socialist like Sir Richard Rees on the coast.
Orwell would have made a promising subject of a heroic biographical film.
But it would have to be a courageous one that didn't include his work after
1946, ruling out Animal Farm and '1984', when he was largely spent, close to
death and could hardly crawl from bed to desk at times. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
At this low-ebb, Evelyn Waugh unexpectedly pitched up at Orwell’s bedside.<a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/Bohemian%20Rhapsody%20and%20its%20critics%20FINAL%20as%20blog%20170119.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a>
They had never met, but now were the two English titans of their literary age,
standing tall above the post-war rubble, like skyscrapers. And despite
all their similarities, and shared interest in responding to the malaise of
their times, Orwell was told by Waugh he had got it all horribly wrong in his
contempt for the spiritual. And I think Orwell knew that the truth he had
told was an overly-material one, as the pale-cast of death loomed - as Waugh
loomed - along with the ghost of Lord Marchmain by his side, especially for
Orwell. The once arch-atheist patriarch of Brideshead, Lord Marchmain, was
now making a feeble sign of the cross, once more. For Waugh, the
truth about the malaise could be found inside a Catholic church, not down a
coal-mine. Anywhere really, bar in external
objects.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">***</span></div><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Back in the London Club with my friend, I was just a guest in a very
big house where the Nancy-Poets formulate their words around their aesthetics –
where you stand a good chance of talking about Waugh and Orwell, knowing the steak
and kidney pudding will be paid for. It's an established rule that the
member always pays for his guest in his own club. "A splendid rule!"</span></div>
<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">
</span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I offer further inducements to my host
and friend, this professional reviewer, to come over to my side, and I think he
is politely losing patience with my cheekiness, as I teed off again: “It
will cure you instantly of all those bad and lazy habits you have picked up
writing for the papers, and not for your readers.”</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">“And you can write much more, 5,000
words even, if you can carry the reader with you via the compulsion of your
words.” </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
I’m back in the unsympathetic groove, hostile and slightly angry, the state any
writer should be in at least at the outset, before the bravado is kicked out of
him by the subs, the industry and the critics - just like what could have
happened to poor Freddie. In the film, one could feel his torture in
his press conferences, from the endless questions about drugs and his
sexuality. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
I suppose it’s the writers ideal of authenticity that can feel threatened, as
he comes blinking into the world of being sampled, recorded, reviewed and
minced. I noticed that Rami Malek used
that word, 'authenticity', an avowed attribute of the populist, at the Golden
Globes award ceremony. The actor talked about how Queen resisted losing
it, when they would have been feeling the pressure to actually alter their
output, to conform to a numbing code of acceptability. Pretty much the
same code the actor was now hearing in all the other acceptance speeches at the
Golden Globes ceremony. They were
nauseating. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I suppose the pommelling effects of the critics is</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> why the first material of any popular artist
will often stand as his best, after which his steam has been spent and no
longer propels the whole venture forward. How much energy does political
correctness kill in the creative? In Mercury's case, admirably
little. That was the core of his heroism. Never giving in to the
critics or the bosses. Staying unique to the end. Terminally unique.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">What the pro-reviewers seem to forget,
or not pick up, is just how brazen Freddie was about “getting f#£ked all the
time” (his words in the film and also in real life). I gathered from
the film alone that he liked Burt Reynolds types, but from Northern
Ireland. Thick-set, square jaw, short hair to the side, classic
butch good looks and moustachio’d. And he probably liked them <i>recibiendo</i>. How
much more detail about this, or indeed the drugs do we need to know about
before laws of diminishing returns kick in, and we are all sufficiently
aware? </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">We resist the siren calls from the critics for <i>More!
More!</i> We are helpfully reminded by Lucy Boynton, who played Mary
(and is rumoured to have had a relationship with Remi Malek </span><a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6343419/Rami-Malek-girlfriend-Lucy-Boynton-pictured-LA-Bohemian-Rhapsody-released.html"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">since</span></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">),
that “Freddie Mercury proved your sexuality doesn’t have to define you”; but
for the reviewers, the film, somehow, remains a ‘homophobic biopic’ (<i>Forbes</i>),
before the feeble qualification: ‘whether it’s homophobic or slut-shaming, it’s
icky’. For <i>Little White Lies’</i> Hannah Woodhead: ‘the
attention paid to his sexuality feels cheap, with one scene contrasting the
recording of ‘Another One Bites the Dust’ with Mercury visiting a gay
club’. <i>Apropos</i>, I thought, through the gathering gloom of
memorising these unmemorable reviews. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">For <i>The Guardian’s</i> Steve
Rose, ‘the film might have explored the relationship between Mercury’s
hedonism, his mostly closeted sexuality and his on/off-stage personas in a more <i>nuanced</i> way’
(that word again), no doubt like all those Steve has watched with his reviewer
pals, at some art-house cinema near The Barbican. Or through that
side door, round the back of Waitrose in Barnsbury.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">And of course Mercury wanted and got
more drugs than we see or ever have seen. We all want more
palliative drugs. That is the modern condition. It’s just
that we’ve had enough of the anti-heroic drug-demise film genre, and for some
of us even the drugs themselves. Wisely. We have turned the corner,
off misery porn street. I feel spared in this film from the squalid
details which I know too much about. But I enjoyed the line from
Freddie: ‘Being human is a condition that requires
anaesthetics’. That, really, is all you need to know about the problem
of drugs. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I turned to the review in <i>The
Sun</i>, thinking that if anyone would step out of line and award more than the
seemingly obligatory three-stars, it would be the populist paper of
Britain. But no, three-stars had been awarded
again. Remarkably, and I don’t know whether the reviewer still has
his job, The Sun’s beef was the commercialism of the whole
project: ‘to make you walk out of the cinema and immediately start
streaming or downloading the band’s incredible music… if however, you were expecting
something more than a rose-tinted version of what could have been… beware.'</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
***<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Out of the Club and back in Addlestone’s
cinema, I feel that warm inner glow of contentment again, thrusting backwards
into the over-sized chair, and resting my legs on a poof
provided. (A furniture poof that is, Steve). I know it’s
not going to last long in this exciting brand new cinema that is packed
out. We will be caught up, oblivious to life irritants:
tobacco-craving - the filling bladder - the coughing-person behind - “you’ve
already had your six cans of Red Bull today”; in the company of a truly great
but tragic rock hero. Facing it with a grin, never giving
in! Carry on Maestro, please! Until your fast-approaching
death, that is. There really isn’t time to hypothesise about drugs
and homosexuality, on with the show. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">What descends on me in the
cinema, watching this film, is a rare moment of internal peace during which the
washing-machine head asks no questions, especially political ones. I’m
going to enjoy the ghastly tub-thumping bits. And all the bizarre
and wonderful moments that are rarely mentioned in the reviews: his glorious
debut for Queen, singing the wrong lyrics to a different old Queen song - and
the astonished band's reaction as they played the backing, it was either Seven
Seas of Rhye, Who Wants to Live Forever, or Keep Yourself Alive! - it could
have been any two from three in either order - a reverse combination forecast
if you had to bet - but it was clever and risky unless down brilliantly - which
it was of course. There was the understandable kinship with gay DJ Kenny
Everett; the stage action combining imperious vocals with perfectly synced
strutting, with the long, delayed swinging arms (he must have seen bullfighters
do that so gracefully with the cape and the sword). I've practised the
move many times in my part-time job with the tray as microphone.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;">The slow and steady, parabolic movement of hand and tray, withdrawing
from the dining table, tray perched on four fingers and thumb, all splayed to
the very maximum, the waiter then bowing, piroeting and finishing on tip toes before walking away quite normally, thereby signally it was all for the crowd.</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Those shots from behind, showing Mercury alone bar the prop of the microphone,
which has now become sexualised in a bewildering number of ways, in front of
another ginormous Wembley full crowd, sometimes giving a knowing smile of stadium unity, a
sincere thank you, signed off at Mercury’s zenith, at Live Aid, with the most
elaborate and beautiful bow you have ever seen. Good night Freddie:
it doesn’t get better from now on - and I feel tears coming. Before
that, ‘Miami’ Beach always looking like a teddy bear was oddly memorable, but
Tom Hollander always plays a teddy bear! Mike Myers as the gnarled
music boss, his pores still oozing toxicants taken back in 1967, yes
definitely. The sound mixing and huge effort of recording Bohemian
Rhapsody – the most expensive record ever produced at the time – everything
Queen did was the most expensive. And I thought about the title, 'Bohemian
Rhapsody': dictionary accurate for both the song and the film. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Do you know how the song was first
received by the critics back in 1975? It was a similar reception to
the one they gave the film over 40 years later: “It will be interesting to see
whether it’ll be played in its entirety on the radio” observed Pete Erskine
of <i>The NME</i>. “It’s performed extremely well, but more in terms
of a production than anything else… Someone somewhere has decided that the
boys’ next release must sound ‘epic’. And it does. They sound extremely
self-important.” Here is another early catastrophic judgement
of anything Queen, with Ray Fox-Cumming of <i>Record Mirror</i> the
most unmoved of all: “It has no immediate selling point whatsoever:
among its parts there’s scarcely a shred of tune and certainly not one line to
latch onto.” It would become the UK’s third best-selling single of
all time, a nine-week UK No.1, including Christmas 1975. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br /><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Throughout <i>Bohemian Rhapsody,</i> we
see a muscular, still swaggering Freddie Mercury from the rear, a good Rami
Malek rear (although you must know it’s an American rear!) Or is it an
Egyptian one with a bit of Greek? Is it
erotic? Yes. But the gay rights critics want politics
here, not aesthetics. He’s about to climb the Live Aid stage in
1985, bouncing like a bull-fighter again. The bouncing is all about
the bum, and Rami Malek bounces brilliantly. For a moment I consider
that homosexual aesthetic and its beauty. I remember it was the bum
of the bullfighter, clad tightly by his suit of lights, that offered
considerable pleasure to my gay friends at the bull-ring in Beziers or Seville,
and to me a bit, if I am honest. I realise that the whole Bohemian
Rhapsody is shot through with homosexuality or gay erotic to enjoy and write
about, and my mind unfortunately flicks back onto the reviews
again. Like <i>Variety’s</i> <i>Owen Gleiberman</i>,
groaning out loud, ‘it treats Freddie’s personal life – his sexual-romantic
identity, his loneliness, his reckless adventures in gay-clubs – with kid
gloves reticence’. I suppose this is one step short of the prim
incomprehension of Kate Mossman on Radio 4, who, with a baffled shrilling, says:
‘<i>it’s a</i> [pause, up an octive]</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><i><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">very odd</span></i><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;">[</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">down
an octave]</span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 13.5pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">film.’ She’s talking about
the least odd film of the year! Or the final descent into the
bizarre with the New York Post’s review: ‘it looks like it was shot in a
sauna’.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">I scribbled a note when I watched the
film, "Bohemian Rhapsody will receive no Oscars", but now my feelings
are less certain, with these Golden Globes awards. But the reviewers are
unrepentant. <i>Scott Mendelson</i> came back with a rejoinder
after the first reviews and the hoards had flooded the cinemas. Look! you
are the problem here, not me! “Although it's rather out my province to affect
viewership figures” - plenty of disingenuous humility there – and unconvincing
modesty here: </span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">“Bohemian
Rhapsody is just the latest big movie with bad reviews to score big
specifically because even the pans didn’t necessarily scare off those who
wanted certain (populist) elements from a given movie” – god, what a
terrible sentence to re-type. And they said exactly the same thing after
Brexit. And Scott Mendelson boasts he has “<span style="background-color: #fcfcfc; background: rgb(252, 252, 252);">studied
the film industry, both academically and informally, and with an emphasis in
box office analysis, for 28 years.</span>” What an indictment of
both cinema viewers and his long weary life. And he still doesn’t
know what causes a box office smash. A good film makes you feel
better not think harder, lean-back not lean-forward.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">Bohemian Rhapsody is a biographical
account which is best not carved up. If the myth turns into reality,
sometimes you still need to print the myth, to echo director John
Ford. What the reviewers aren’t doing - and what Mercury did so well,
and this film does too - is connect with the public and give them what they
want - in order to feel better. That, by itself, is good enough for
a populist artist, his only trusted measure of success is moved
feelings. So it was for Mercury who said his best songs were the
ones that sold best. If you want ‘meaning songs’ look elsewhere, or
if you really want to analyse what Bohemian Rhapsody could mean –
try the internet </span><a href="https://m.ranker.com/list/best-fan-theories-about-the-meaning-behind-queen_s-_bohemian-rhapsody_/drew-grant"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">here</span></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">. But the
genius of Bohemian Rhapsody – dictionary defined ‘an emotional or ecstatic
construction by a socially unconventional person’ - is actually that ‘it can
mean whatever you want it to mean'. That, incidentally, is the band’s
retort to Mike Myers, the despairing music boss who wanted more convention,
ironically, given how he looked himself. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 12pt;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">This is the wrong film to batter with
sociological commentary from the old divides, questioning the motivations of
those involved, and how it all could be so much better. Mainstream
media has lost its way here on the biggest film of the year, not you the
viewing public. Their dead hand of political correctness sees the
challenges to Mercury’s success as the interest or the problem, being
homosexual, drug-use, his immigrant status, his public school, the capitalist
industry and his relationships with the band.
If those were really the challenges, the real interest is how he overcame those
challenges, rather than the challenges themselves. Mercury is the living thing, and should be
written in the active. He is like the
hammer that hits the anvil. He isn’t the
anvil being hit by the hammer. That said, I think getting HIV was the main challenge
– a genuine challenge to Mercury. One
could credibly say that AIDS destroyed him.
AIDS got Freddie, he didn’t just get AIDS. He was acted upon, he didn’t act in this
instance. Although Mercury the hero kept battling on, finally with the album <i>Innuendo</i> (1991)
which is largely an elergy to himself, coming down with a fever and going
slightly mad. "Rule with your heart" and "live with your
conscience" - not bad at all - "these are the days of our
lives".</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><br />
Overcoming challenges is tantamount to being heroic and this film is a visceral
study of heroism. It’s with some understatement and maximum strength
he sings at Live Aid - 'We Are The Champions' and that it’s been no bed of
roses”. Central to film, truthful or not (we don’t know), is the
suggestion that he appeared at Live Aid knowing he had AIDS when none of the
audience did. What a secret. What a challenge that
is. The critics' suggestion that Mercury didn’t know for certain he
had AIDS as early as 1985, is designed to defuse the populism of the movie,
despite evidence he may well have known then he was doomed. The
purpose as ever is party-spoiling by the reviewers. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">When I recognised what mean tricks the
reviewers were up to, (see </span><a href="https://www.nme.com/news/film/bohemian-rhapsody-film-reviews-queen-movie-2393540"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">here</span></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> and </span><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/2018/10/24/bohemian-rhapsodyreviews-round-up-did-critics-think/"><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;">here</span></a><span face=""verdana" , sans-serif" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> for a full
cross-section), that once again the established media had, en masse, got Queen
wrong and misjudged their popularity; then I knew I was impelled to spit out my
own review, to help correct the balance in a very small way. But the main
reason for what I have written is to say it again: trust the wisecrowd, not the
experts! The many are smarter than the few! In our digital age! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-outline-level: 2;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt;">***<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-outline-level: 2;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 10pt;"><br />
</span><b><span face=""arial" , "sans-serif"" style="color: #222222; font-size: 9pt;">Editing notes. Originally written
7/11/2018. Revised 05/12/18 (9,500 words), Proofed, Amends made, Revised again
after the film’s Golden Globes win 08/01/19 and 14/01/19. The purpose of the essay is to affirm the
wisdom of crowds – the many are smarter than the few. This latest version: Thursday 17<sup>th</sup>
January 2019. 6,547 words.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , sans-serif"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/Bohemian%20Rhapsody%20and%20its%20critics%20FINAL%20as%20blog%20170119.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="line-height: 115%;">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></a> Lebedoff,
David (2008). <i>The Same Man: George Orwell and Evelyn Waugh in Love and War.</i> Random House (New York). Chapter 8: ‘The Meeting’. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="color: black;"> Freddie Mercury, performing at Live Aid, 1985</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif"" style="color: black;">Remi Malek Performing as Freddie Mercury, 2018</span><span face=""verdana" , "sans-serif""><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comAddlestone, UK51.369813 -0.4886410000000296351.2905005 -0.65000250000002957 51.4491255 -0.32727950000002964tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-35181240366910928872018-08-26T12:06:00.000+01:002020-05-20T19:12:13.628+01:00Larkin’ About Hospitals<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The essay below looks at how three alcoholic writers might have responded to the NHS' 70th birthday, if they were still alive. They all spent plenty of time in hospitals, and wrote extensively about them. </span></i><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">I take a look at jottings in the jaundiced ‘Low Life’ book by the comic <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jeffrey Bernard</b>, and his acceptance of life as a professional active alcoholic to the last.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The second book I had to read, was an autobiography (2015) of the</span> acerbic critic, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A.A. Gill</b>, who got his break in journalism by writing about rehab, defining himself as a professional recovering alcoholic, even renaming himself as such. He was just plain old ‘Adrian’ before. Thirdly, I examine the life and works of the controversial poet <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Philip Larkin</b>, positioned as Britain’s No.1 post-war writer by The Times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Larkin lived out his final years in an alcoholic stupor, forced to turn down the honour of Poet Laureate which he had coveted all his life, because he could no longer write drunk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All were tragic authors, sharing a specific terminal uniqueness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In turn, they laughed at (Bernard), loved (Gill) and loathed (Larkin) - hospitals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Which one of these three will you identify with, if any…?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></i><br />
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<i style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">I wrote this piece during a recent stay in St. Peter’s, Chertsey, drawing on my own experiences there and the people I met. </span></span></i></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Short and stocky Bobby waltzed into our ward, full of chutzpah, ignoring the large </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">post</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">-quarantine warning on the door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bobby is a market-trader.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Three days sober, he had been transferred up from ‘Accident and Emergency’ and the interim ‘Acute Medical Unit’ to the winding corridors and long-term wards of Level Four.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each ward further away and harder to return from.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But this is the beginning of the pleasant end of alcohol and drug detoxification.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The sedative drugs are still potent, although the nausea, hallucinations, sleep-deprivation and physical risks are waning, as described in a </span><a href="https://alberttapper.blogspot.com/2017/09/who-knows-about-cirrhosis.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">previous post</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">. That is a very small step in rebuilding from the spiritual and emotional wreckage of the addicted life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Reversing decades of looking outwards for any form of external stimulation, to a more peaceful reality deep down within ourselves – some spiritual calm or higher consciousness of life and truth – is the great challenge: “to be able to take a completely different direction to the one that made us what we are” as Pavras said on the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Night Train to Lisbon (2013)</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">But the long-term ward Bobby was entering offers a break between the pain of early detox and the harsh realities of the cold, lonely and half-destroyed flat Bobby will have to return to, very soon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For now there’s three meals and four rounds of meds a day, loving nurses and occasional joviality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The monumental challenge of spiritual recovery can be knocked down the ward corridor for just a little longer. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Bobby began talking as the door to our section swung back shut behind him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was trying not to get excited. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">We had </span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">Norovirus</span></b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-size: x-small;">in the ward before Bobby arrived</span><o:p></o:p></span></span></b></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">‘Afternoon all - has the meds trolley been round?’ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Continuing without pause: ‘</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">Don’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">t tell me I</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">ve missed it - I</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’m rattling bad, folks</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This was a language understood only by other addicts in the room as an urgent requirement for Valium or some other sedative.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It served to bemuse the rest of the ward mates, who felt this strange little man must have escaped from the hospital’s mental health unit.</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">‘Which of these two beds shall I take?’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">‘Is there mobile reception in here?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">I’</span><span lang="DE" style="line-height: 125%;">m on Vodafone.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">’ Not hesitating, he switched back to the bed issue,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"> </span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">‘</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">I’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">ll take the one by the window.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anyone got a charger for Samsung? I</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">m out of battery. Hopeless phone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give me back my old Nokia.’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Then greeting a large African nurse he knew from before, he exclaimed, ‘Hello Julius old fella - short time no see. Still backing losers?’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The words and questions flowed on, without time for a response from anyone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The rest of us were shell-shocked after five days of Norovirus which had been confined to our part of the ward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It had claimed victims of us and now made us weak men.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">One patient was peculiarly resilient.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was a 94 year-old diabetic Sergeant-Major called Alan.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had won the Military Cross at Monte Cassino in Italy, one of the tougher and more gruesome battles of World War II, claiming over 50,000 allied casualties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On a night in February 1944, American Bombers dropped 1,400 tons of high explosive on the 6<sup>th</sup> Century hill-top Benedictine abbey, rendering it a craggy expanse of rubble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The raid failed to achieve its objective as crack German paratroopers subsequently dropped into the ruins, establishing excellent defensive positions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After repeated failed attacks, hand-to-hand combat was required to dislodge them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At the time, Alan was the youngest Sargeant-Major in the British Army, responsible for the discipline of 250 soldiers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was still a pillar of strength.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He retained the ability to keep our flagging spirits afloat during the Norovirus outbreak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All he worried about was his bed was made correctly.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Ruins of Monte Cassino (1944)</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The ward had come to smell worse than a Calcutta Railway station khazi on a hot day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nurses entered as if Ebola was present, all masked up, and doctors - who can prove hard to spot in normal times - made no show at all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We weren</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">t allowed out of that hell-hole without very good reason.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One chap, who was Yangtze yellow with jaundice from end-stage liver cirrhosis, had been removed when the virus first struck because it would have killed him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he died two days later anyway.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Our section had been thoroughly cleaned, involving a team of eight Romanians working hard for two hours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They had even changed all the curtains used to divide off each bed into private units.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were all now deemed non-infectious when Bobby joined the ward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It </span><span style="line-height: 125%;">was like</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"> November 1918 or August 1945.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His entrance heralded a brief interlude, as if to celebrate the end of war, or more accurately, plague.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A new levity existed - our pains and fears vaporised for a while.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We were united at least by the energy of the man.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it wasn</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">t to last.</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Bobby confided to me – and to the rest of the ward who were now listening somewhat intently - what else was there to do – that he liked to wander around other wards, including female ones, chatting to fellow patients and nurses, and investigate items in the ward depositories. These contain toiletries and clothing items like socks and disposable pants. </span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">True to his word, he was soon on the prowl.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was taken by a unique pair </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">of hospital pyjamas in a ward store that were shiny pink. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bobby was soon strutting around in them, proud, dancing even, showing off to the nurses, unaware that they were reserved for patients with </span><span style="line-height: 125%;">‘</span><span lang="IT" style="line-height: 125%;">chronic fall risk</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bobby wasn</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">t one of those.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes he did have a prodigious appetite for wobble-inducing benzodiazepine drugs - obtained by fair means or foul - but he was strong-boned and never would tumble.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We didn’t see Bobby again.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had entered like a fizzing top and left under a cloud just 12 hours later.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The meds trolley arrives four times a day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is no shortage of drugs in British hospitals.</span><o:p></o:p></span></b><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Bobby is of some infamy within the local Surrey hospital network.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But clearly British hospitals have had more famous patrons of different form but same ilk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The columnist and legendary drinker <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Jeffrey Bernard (1932-1997)</b> talked often about the Middlesex Hospital in central London as his second home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He wrote at great length about West Indian nurses (not always positively).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He made light humour of boorish hypochondriacs he had to share a ward room with, in his weekly Spectator column called ‘Low Life’ – described by Jonathan Meades as ‘a suicide note in weekly installments.’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 125%;">A Young Jeffrey Bernard</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Bernard’s life-long underlying thesis was vast swathes of the British population are intensely dull.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">s a truth rarely spoken about, and it takes sharing a room with Mr Backbone of England to find it out for real, Bernard maintained.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You might find out hearing them in The Coach and Horses (his favourite pub in Soho), but would never know just passing them in the street or sitting next to them on the train.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The acid test is living and sleeping next to them 24 hours a day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The depressing revelation is reinforced when <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mrs</i> Backbone comes to visit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the worst moment in the hospital experience. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To be bedded next to a wife visited bore is the cruelest cut of all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s the most serious thing that can happen to you in hospital short of getting the Norovirus (or dying). The banalities, shallow sympathies, endless small talk about garden fences, new patios and the like.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The gluttonous sharing of cheap chocolates. ‘The wasteful, weak, propitiatory flowers’ – (Larkin</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">s line - more on him later.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Somehow the relatives have been known to camp bed-side for eight hours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worse, their low grade conversation reinforces another dreadful, self-pitying thought.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Certainly for me, far less so for the celebrated Bernard, visiting fatigue sets in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are only so many friends will keep visiting you in hospital when you are in there so regularly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All you are left with is listening to other people’s friends, thinking… <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I had better ones than them, once</i>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">Bern</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">ard knew all this too well.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He had the added problem of journalists arriving at his bedside to write pieces unoriginally entitled,</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"> ‘</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Jeffrey Bernard is still unwell.’<a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/larkin%20about%20hospitals%202.docx#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span lang="EN-US">[1]</span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But rather like Bobby - Bernard</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">s trick was to seek out like-minded miscreants inside the hospital for entertainment and company.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Sometimes he would hit the jackpot and find some old Major who also liked horse-racing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He liked military comrades because they were stoics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I seem to remember a Newbury cottage hospital he was taken to, whilst ambulanced away from a visit to his beloved Lambourn (a horse racing orientated village in Berkshire), which had a pleasing verandah attached to the ward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">The nurses wheeled out a black and white TV for him and this aged Brigadier he had struck up a relationship with, so they could watch ITV Seven racing, drink Smirnoffs and smoke Gauloises.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those were the days.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now hospitals are no-smoking zones encompassing exclusion zones so wide outside the hospital walls, that only the fittest smoker could make it to a legal smoking haven.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The walk to the hospital entrance is long enough, and multi-level, involving slow clunking lifts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Bernard laughed at hospitals but disliked them, and would never die in one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite diabetes, an amputated right leg due to gangrene and renal collapse, which meant he spent his entire 65<sup>th</sup> year in The Middlesex, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">he begged doctors to let him die in his Soho flat.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="background: white; line-height: 125%;">‘I will surprise God because I'm late,’ he said. ‘I'm usually very punctual. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was always punctual with the devil.’<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white; line-height: 125%;">‘I don't mind dying,’ he once said, ‘I just don't like the idea of being dead. I'm gregarious. I shouldn't think there is a bar in heaven.’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Bernard was terminally unique, and stayed loyal to the cause of his death to the end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He also recognised it was the cause of his fame.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was truly professional about his drinking:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="background: white; line-height: 125%;">‘In the past, at my lowest ebbs, I used to think that maybe drink had destroyed my life, but that was dramatic nonsense and temporary gloom. Without alcohol, I would have been a shop assistant, a business executive or a lone bachelor bank clerk. The side effects of my chosen anaesthetic have at least produced some wonderful dreams that turned out to be reality.’</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">Such acceptance, good grace and humour provides quite a contrast to the death of the brilliant Sunday Times Restaurant critic, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A.A.Gill</b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"> (1954-2016)</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another professional alcoholic, Gill was of the recovering variety – so it was indeed tragic that he should die three years earlier than Bernard at 62.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But he never stopped smoking and that’s what got him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Smoking is usually a slower train to the same terminus, but for Gill it pulled in first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2014 he admitted he continued to smoke about 60 per day until he was 48.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Gill’s break in journalism came from derailing his relatively brief drinking career – permanently - at Clouds House rehab in Wiltshire, aged 37.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(I’ve been there too, a couple of times).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gill wrote an article about Clouds which was published by Tatler</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">, and who subsequently gave him his first writing job, having been a failed artist when drinking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He even changed his name to ‘A.A.’ from ‘Adrian’ because it did sound better.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A few years later came the move to the Sunday Times where, according to Lynn Barber, ‘he quickly established himself as their shiniest star’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite being dyslexic, his exceptional mind allowed him to dictate all his articles down the phone line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>From journalism alone, he was able to leave a fortune of £3.4m to his wife and children.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">He once wrote caustically about </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">hospitals, as well as most things that ever hit a plate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What makes him interesting is his Damascene death-bed conversion to the NHS as something holy, having been diagnosed with what he </span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">memorably described as ‘an embarrassment of cancer, the full English.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="background: white; line-height: 125%;">There is barely a morsel of offal not included. I have a trucker’s gut-buster, gimpy, malevolent, meaty malignancy’.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Wracked by chemotherapy, Gill wrote at length on the NHS and his denial of death in his last Sunday Times article (December 11th, 2016), published a few days before his end.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He seemed to be echoing stricken Little Bob (Gene Hackman), the sheriff shot by Clint Eastwood at the end of the film Unforgiven: ‘I don’t deserve to die like this’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Deserve</i> has nothing to do with it’ replied Eastwood’s character.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">For Gill: ‘The NHS represents everything we think is best about us…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We know it is the best of us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can’t walk into an NHS hospital and be racist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That condition is cured instantly…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You can’t be sexist on the NHS, nor patronizing, and the care and the humour, the togetherness… by both the caring and the careworn is the Blitz, “back against the wall”, stern and sentimental best of us’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stephen Hawking was to say, similar the following year before he died: ‘the NHS brings out the best in us.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who could possibly speak badly of these brave titans of illness?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">They all found in the NHS institution some spiritual unifying force, beyond its powers to restore physical health.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As said, recovering alcoholics are keen on drawing on spirit not spirits – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">spiritus contra spiritum<a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/larkin%20about%20hospitals%202.docx#_ftn2" name="_ftnref2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">[2]</span></b></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a></i> - none less than the noisy Russell Brand.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He used the same ‘the NHS is the best of us line’ as Gill in <a href="https://www.russellbrand.com/writing/nhs-saved-mum-spirit-country/">a blog piece</a> – twice – and going further: ‘the NHS has symbolic value, it is this country’s soul.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But it is much more than a symbol, it is carnal as well as divine’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But does it follow that by heaping praise (and money) in external healthcare we will find some inner salvation?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I will return to this question when discussing our third alcoholic writer, Philip Larkin.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">Gill was told by his Consultant that his big hope (despite his cancer having spread like a nimble cat-burgler) was a new-fangled drug called</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"> Nivolumab.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such was Gill’s desperation if not deserving, and his Doctor’s acquiescence, he was prepared to venture into the medical research frontier-zone of immunotherapy, beyond the ghastliness of chemotherapy, and costing </span><span style="line-height: 125%;">£</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">100,000 a patient (about four times as much as chemo).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He didn</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">t get it on the NHS at first, but with all his noise he made he received it in the end after his pancreatic tumour grew to the size of a fist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(A version of Nivolumab called Pembrolizumab is now licensed by the National Institute of Clinical Excellence – known by an acronym of the benign State - N.I.C.E.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gill was forced to purchase Nivolumab privately).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">So how exactly did Gill’s example of his intensive interaction with the British hospital system of the NHS show up the best in him and others?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was Gill filled with one-ness from being part of it – invigorated, fortified and more determined?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or was he just made even more scared and desperate?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">His Sunday Times piece is drained of humour and life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It smells of fear, when its perfume was intended as bravado.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gill is most definitely clutching at whatever life-preserver might provide ‘a stretch more life… more life with your kids, more life with your friends, more life holding hands, more life shared, more life spent on earth…’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He sounds worse than the most sentimental of dying patients you don’t want near you in hospital.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Amazingly for A.A., the descent into sentimentality gets worse.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He actually revels in it when partners shuffle in ‘to share sandwiches, talk about shopping and the cousins in New Zealand and window boxes.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">We know most of Gill the man from his autobiography ‘Pour Me’ (2015), before he got ill. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To him the most important thing was being frighteningly talented.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this book, he offered stories ‘not to show off my cleverness, but to underline it’ (p.60).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">He didn’t achieve it as a self-obsessed artist, but he did in later life as a sober journalist.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is the defining trait of the alcoholic that the self-centred ego drive is dominant over any spiritual considerations about others and otherness.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Reversing that balance is the solution to recovering from alcoholism).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any amount of perfidy, manipulation and greed can go on to achieve false pride and satisfaction in the bottle and use of other people.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However many A.A. meetings one attends, and A.A. Gill even changed his name in honour of Alcoholics Anonymous, old defects of character can rear up like botulism on steroids.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gill the political turncoat of Disraelian proportions was evident, for example, fliting in and out of scepticism towards the European Union as it suited, for example when courting and then marrying Amber Rudd, the Europhile Home Secretary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Gill was an alcoholic charlatan whose words dictated his expressed feelings rather than his feelings dictating his words.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He would gladly have written anything, however offensive, so long as it was funny (which it usually was).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was indeed extremely clever.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who else could write as well as he did, always down the phone through dictation because of his severe dyslexia?</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">But when he had to write something truly honest, about his life and death, he couldn’t do it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is both unbelievable and pathetic, even scared.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any pretence to accept his fate is laid bare as false.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 125%;">As a truly great critic, Gill</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"> desired to please by being horrible.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As death drew in, he understandably did not want to be remembered for example, for calling the welsh</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">: ‘</span><span style="background: white; color: #222222; line-height: 125%;">loquacious, dissemblers, immoral liars, stunted, bigoted, dark, ugly, pugnacious little trolls</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">.’<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Or saying the historian, Mary Beard, ‘should be kept away from the cameras altogether’.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His quote about the NHS bringing out the best in us British was such an attempt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tapping into such an obviously popular current idea, giving it a bit of intellectual shape, all shrouded in a wiff of his own bravery and struggle, he was pushing at an open door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But at the back of that cancer addled brain, he must have known he was playing on one of the most insidious ideas of our age, and most dangerous.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Our obsession with the NHS and our 168 hospitals is far from the healthy one it may at first seem.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">For sure Adrian Gill knew he was on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">terra firma</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nigel Lawson once wrote that </span><span style="line-height: 125%;">‘</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">the NHS is the closest thing the English have to a national religion</span><span style="line-height: 125%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The £125 billion we will spend on it this year is over 20 per cent of public spending and 8 per cent of GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 1955 it was 3 per cent of GDP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2000 it was 6.3 per cent - stealth-like growth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, when the chancellor stands up each year at the House of Commons dispatch box and announces yet another, seemingly obligatory small increase in NHS spending, it amounts to huge increases in the long term. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since being founded in 1948 the NHS budget has grown 8-fold in real terms and N.I.C.E. show ever greater largesse in offering us remedies to add some extra years, just for you.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Institute of Fiscal Studies says that the NHS budget must rise by almost 50% (£56 billion) in the coming decade to cover the costs of an aging population.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NHS has become the fifth biggest employer in the world, with nearly two million staff.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>According the British Social Attitudes Research Centre, 61 per cent of us would support higher taxes to pay for more NHS spending and over 90 per cent believe there is a funding crisis (April 2018).</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Politically right-leaning Gill would have known that giant bureaucracies never make people great or even bring out the best in them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They depersonalize, make them greedy for resources, political and lazy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes, there are wonderful caring people working in the NHS, particularly nurses, who are rightly admired though abused by ill-mannered patients who think they have rights – or the plain demented.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There are also legions of volunteers in the NHS, serving for free - one just poured me a cup of tea at my hospital bed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any altruism in British healthcare comes from the individual consciences of decent people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is deeply patronising of Gill to suggest that this decency comes not bottom up - from the staff to the NHS, but top down from the faceless NHS to the staff, as if they are made good by an organisation that merits a birthday reward.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the NHS is great - it’s because of its staff.</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">But Gill wasn’t just talking about the NHS bringing out the best in its employees.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was mainly focused on us citizens; how the universalist, free-at-the-point off delivery service inculcates a decency in us all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We all chip in and help out others when they get ill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Again patronising - and again against every sinew in Gill’s life-long political philosophy of being a free-marketeer: nationalised industries and services are always coercive of us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have no choice but to pay for them through compulsory taxation - so how can we act generously (or morally) when the choice is forced on threat of jail?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This squeezes out any true generosity in health-care provision.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If anything this brings out the worst in us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It makes people angry and resentful that they have to pay taxes to fund the healthcare of the obese, the hard-drinkers, and the smokers, when really they should have to pay more in health insurance – but only if they can afford it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Universal provision of healthcare penalises healthy people and benefits unhealthy ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What would really bring out the best in people would be charitable giving for the broken, beaten and the damned.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And a bit more openness and accountability for how the NHS is funded and operates. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Examples of Billion pound wastage on huge computer systems to store our medical records have been documented, but little examples abound everywhere in such a big business unit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>At St. Peter’s, my local hospital, 35 ‘Stryker’ wheelchairs, the very latest model, were recently purchased at a cost of £1,750 each.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Over half have simply been wheeled out of the hospitals grounds since.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Little more than a dozen remain, (pictured, now padlocked).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><b><span style="font-size: x-small;">The famous Stryker wheelchairs at St. Peter's, Chertsey. Most have been wheeled out of the hospital. </span></b> </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=462011993149266258" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">My last alcoholic writer on hospitals rose above the everyday noise of socio-political jostling on the NHS, from his lofty academic citadel at the Brynmor Jones Library of Hull University, where he was Librarian and I was an undergraduate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He did however find himself writing in the middle of the vast expansion of the welfare state, well beyond the intentions of its founder, William Beveridge, as an insurance system for the poor rather than a politicised tool for egalitarianism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this writer, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Philip Larkin (1922-1985) </b>didn’t find that to his liking.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He reserved his most potent criticism of the expansion of welfarism to the National Health Service, providing a critique of its aggrandizement which in essence, is aesthetical and spiritual.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOGFAWJz5OWZSFL4xFR8HYNdkQ9PIzqvaX5a6LOHxoHd6hOB6zKbLgycNpaR_ADQ-yTT49k8Ig9RPUlwLmZ9MnXB4W5ZcJ0Gt9VprFuNizRafwB6YrLAn4D-jKr2aLzZPxfjBxjvzbX3Zu/s1600/larkin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><b><img border="0" data-original-height="467" data-original-width="700" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOGFAWJz5OWZSFL4xFR8HYNdkQ9PIzqvaX5a6LOHxoHd6hOB6zKbLgycNpaR_ADQ-yTT49k8Ig9RPUlwLmZ9MnXB4W5ZcJ0Gt9VprFuNizRafwB6YrLAn4D-jKr2aLzZPxfjBxjvzbX3Zu/s320/larkin.jpg" width="320" /></b></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b>Philip Larkin. One of the most brilliant Englishmen never to be knighted.</b></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Armed with language of deadly accuracy and beauty, he decided to assassinate the modern hospital in a poem called </span><a href="http://www.poetryatlas.com/poetry/poem/4724/the-building.html" style="font-family: verdana, sans-serif;"><span class="Hyperlink0"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">The Building</span></span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;"> (1972).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Larkin’s position was that the attempt to forestall death and make us less fearful of it through better healthcare - with new pills, scanners, more doctors, nurses, all framed within the functionalism of the modernist hospital - was to reduce the value we place in life here and now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Death was inevitable and only by accepting that fact in full, without assurances of endless end-of-life support, could we really live, could we really value each day in the here and now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Acceptance is the key – and big hospitals deny us this acceptance of living in the day for a few extra tomorrows.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And extra tomorrows aren’t worth living when they come around.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are foolish cowards of death to think they will be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is to talk in spiritual terms; if one is prepared to take a further step and talk in religious terms, where exactly does this fear of death, epitomized by our own life-support machines, leave our faith in the after-life?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">The growth of the NHS has only served to make us more fearful and less faithful because it is a block on this acceptance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In spiritual terms, it brings out the worst in us.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To get this argument, requires an understanding of the suffering endured by those who are actually being treated in hospitals which is beyond the scope of this essay.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One gets to feel it through personal experience of being inside a hospital like I am right now, long enough.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve got the uneasy feeling that the processes and principles (of a big organisation) begins to trump humanity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Patients it seems must be kept alive at all costs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They seem to become the playthings of aspirational medics, keen to employ the latest technique, rather like the crazed New York Surgeon in the praiseworthy US television series ‘The Knick’, Dr John Thackery (Clive Owen).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was a pioneering surgeon (and an addict), who eventually dies trying to operate on himself.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Those were the pioneering days of anesthesia and surgical operations, but medical progress is always pioneering and it goes on and on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The human begins to resemble a totally impractical vintage car which must be kept on the road at all costs.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Give it some of A.A. Gill’s Nivolumab oil if needs be at £100k a pop, even if the back axel is about to crack with rust.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When exactly will it end?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Only could a nationalised health service behave in such away.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Selina is terminally ill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I smoke with her, sometimes pushing her wheelchair the long distance.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She is 56 and whilst a fighter, is pretty sure she won’t make it to 57.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She has brain, lung, liver, and skin cancers.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She is on a high dose of palliative morphine.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Selina is remarkably positive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She wants to enjoy everyday and lights up all us smokers who group together like a small reviled minority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>She wants to leave hospital because she desires to be with her family.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However she has an ulcer on her foot (she is also diabetic).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of the chemotherapy and radiotherapy she is receiving, the ulcer is not responding to antibiotics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The doctors insist that the foot is treated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So they have applied maggots to the foot, to eat away at the necrotic tissue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These are special maggots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are not available at your local fishing tackle shop because they are sterile (and extremely expensive - it costs over £100 for a small bag of larvae).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One course of maggot therapy has failed Selina but the doctors think they must try again – despite Selina making polite protestations to be allowed home.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is but one example on how our modern NHS behaves in a bullying way.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">I should be clear that I do not believe that the NHS is always pernicious and of course it has a role as a national provider.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>My father was a doctor for many years, and I know about the goodness it did through his work.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He would make over 100 house calls a week, every week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I simply question the NHS’ capacity to make reasonable decisions about treatment, with a dominant ethos to save life at any cost, whether pecuniary or in terms of human suffering.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is not possible for it to be accountable to its patients in an effective way, nor its funders, the tax-payer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">Take a second example of Paul.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is a thoroughly pleasant and rather brave patient in the next door bed to me right now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He suffers from the same condition too – cirrhosis of the liver.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Paul’s cirrhosis causes raised blood pressure in the spleen, oesophagus and stomach called portal hypertension.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In turn, this causes in both Paul and myself, varices, which are bulging veins inside the stomach that can burst.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If this happens, the patient has a 40 per cent risk of mortality because the bleeding can be so effusive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It happened to Paul the day before yesterday and he started vomiting blood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The ambulance got to Paul in time and saved his life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has lived under a bush since losing his job as a fishmonger.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He has no ability to pay for healthcare (and often no ability to care about health) and is a prime beneficiary of the NHS.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An immediate threat to kill him was averted – and he now has another chance at sobriety.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So long as he stays sober he could live decades, with regular check-ups and banding of suspect varices.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Brave Paul in the next door bed to me.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Recovering from a variceal bleed (stomach) that had him choking on his own blood.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It was caused by raised blood pressure in the portal system (portal hypertension) caused by severe cirrhosis and his alcoholism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A vein bursting in your stomach carries a 40 per cent morbidity rate.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The NHS saved his life after his blood pressure dropped to 60/30 and he struggled to reach the phone to call for an ambulance.</span><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 125%;">So, hospitals play a life-saving role but they are over-extended.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They can’t distinguish between worthy patients like Paul and ones who don’t even want the ridiculous treatment like Selina.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">Nothing however about our obsession with the NHS and the largesse of Governments towards it, is more dangerous than the spiritual damage it does our society.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To explain more, I now turn in more detail to the greatest poem ever written on Hospitals: The Building by Philip Larkin (1972).</span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">Read it here:</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.poetryatlas.com/poetry/poem/4724/the-building.html"><span class="Hyperlink0"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #0079ff;">http://www.poetryatlas.com/poetry/poem/4724/the-building.html</span></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">The Building (1972) is almost certainly about the Hull Royal Infirmary which was completed in 1968.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">I was hospitalised there in 1991, having become critically ill after dropping an acid tab and a bottle of Courvoisier in 30 minutes.</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">(I became president of the Hull Royal Infirmary Club, for student’s who had been admitted there after ‘recreational’ drug and alcohol use.) </span></div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b style="font-size: medium;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 20px;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The Hull Royal Infirmary showing its ‘clean-sliced cliff’ face</span></span></b></td></tr>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 125%;">I wasn’t sentient enough to witness the appalling modernism and size of ‘the building’ at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But I went back there with Larkin’s poem and marveled how he had nailed the place with such precision: ‘here to confess that something has gone wrong’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="line-height: 125%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US">And then the stark ending, so typically of Larkin</span>’<span lang="EN-US">s morbidity:</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">T</span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">his place accepts. All know they are going to die.</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">Not yet, perhaps not here, but in the end,</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">And somewhere like this. That is what it means,</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">This clean-sliced cliff; a struggle to transcend</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">The thought of dying, for unless its powers</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">Outbuild cathedrals nothing contravenes</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">With wasteful, weak, propitiatory flowers</span></i><span style="line-height: 150%;">.</span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">Larkin isn</span><span style="line-height: 150%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">t just being morbid, The Building is a diatribe against the ghastliness of it all. The buildings are horrendous modernist structures, the porters are scruffy, the patients get pushed around in </span><span style="line-height: 150%;">‘</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">washed-to-rags worn clothes</span><span style="line-height: 150%;">’</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">. The places are expensive and wasteful. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One might add the really old and sick in there (maybe 50 percent of the population) are so pathetically weak and hopeless, constantly shitting themselves, surely they should just be given a healthy dose of diamorphine to send them on their merry way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yet when this <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-44547788">actually happens</a>, there is an outcry!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 150%;">So, Larkin didn’t like the aesthetics of hospitals, or their pecuniary squandering, nor the way, somewhat paradoxically, they hinder our ability to embrace life.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without them, we would have more reason to live in the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is something about death that brings us closer to the spirit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We have spiritual thirst us alcoholics, but quench it in the wrong way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That is why others bungee jump, or run with the bulls in Pamplona.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It may also why I have played a dangerous game of brinkmanship with alcohol and its physical consequences for so long.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can’t deny that, physically, hospitals have saved me many times.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But spiritually?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are harmful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are not the best of us but a sick symptom of our material age where we still take ourselves, as human beings, way too seriously.</span><span style="line-height: 150%;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 150%;">5,775 words.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; line-height: 150%;">Written: May 2018. Edited: August 2018.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">South Downs, Sussex, England, May 2020.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/larkin%20about%20hospitals%202.docx#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn1;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference">[1]</span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> Keith Waterhouse’s play ‘Jeffrey Bernard is unwell’ originally ran in the West End in 1989 when Bernard was still alive.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was played most memorably by Peter O’Toole.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For a clip see <a href="https://youtu.be/EgRv3a0-1Gg">here</a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;"><a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/larkin%20about%20hospitals%202.docx#_ftnref2" name="_ftn2" style="mso-footnote-id: ftn2;" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoFootnoteReference">[2]</span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a> ‘The spirits against the spirit’ – a formula coined by Carl Jung in response to the founder of Alcoholics Anonymous, Bill Wilson, 1961.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>See the letter in a previous post - <a href="https://alberttapper.blogspot.com/2018/06/spiritual-recovery-from-addiction.html">https://alberttapper.blogspot.com/2018/06/spiritual-recovery-from-addiction.html</a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-1306831575263035652018-05-04T20:22:00.003+01:002018-05-05T19:32:29.095+01:00Book Review: The Secret Surfer by Iain Gately. Head of Zeus, 2018. £16.99 (Hardback). <br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Iain Gately's latest book on his quest to 'catch a tube' has been subject to rave reviews. Philip Marsden in The Spectator writes about the 'peculiar intensity of involvement' making it so enjoyable. See <a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/02/its-not-a-waves-crest-but-its-translucent-interior-that-surfers-dream-of/" target="_blank">here</a>. Surfers are obsessives with a day job. Selling strongly, it's a nourishing read about middle of life crisis, and resurrection in the challenge of nature, both physical and spiritual. It could be parked next to 'An Old Man and the Sea' on your bookshelf, without a trace of Hemingway's rampant egotism. Iain is both obsessive and humble, a rare combination. I recommend you buy a copy, whether you know about surfing or like the idea of it.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The subject matter of his previous work tells a story: the history of tobacco, global <i>ferias</i> (parties), and a cultural history of alcohol. All were beautifully written, <i>La Diva Nicotina</i> becoming a surprise hit in the United States, reaching the Top 20 best-seller list. Little of his writing, until now, was autobiographical. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I know Iain, which makes this book pertinent to me. His left hip crumbled, precipitating his return to surfing, as my liver started dissolving. If Iain could pull it back, get a happy family, and ride a big wave then maybe there was hope for me in his book. Indeed he charts a resurrection I would be proud of. His physical frailties get better and worse (his right hip starts to disintegrate in 2016, in sympathy for the left one, and he is reduced to finding a surfing work-around in 'knee-boarding' for a while). His spiritual recovery however, is a relentless upward curve of unconcealed joy. For Iain, it's all about surfing. Wracked as we are by the guilt and shame of the past, and fear of the future, he finds salvation in the present moment - the only moment - riding waves for what they really were, 'pulses of energy, rolling through the sea'. With honesty (and some characteristic understatement), he reveals he had 'dedicated himself to the comforts of life long ago, at the expense of neglecting its challenges' (p.2).</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">'It became a game to surf (waves), and so absorbing that any lingering angst vanished, together with the myriad of niggling, quotidian trivia that usually dart around my brain... I was surfing for the joy of it, with no thoughts for anything beyond the here and now' (p.217). </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Appealing hey? Here is a healthy connection with nature and the present: 'the only moment of reality is right then' (p.248). When he found himself too crippled to stand on his board, it was as if he was kneeling to God, an allegory he doesn't miss out on. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I first met Iain at the Seville Feria back 1997. I didn't see him again until 2002. I was living in Gibraltar launching online poker for Ladbrokes. We agreed to meet up again at nearby San Roque Bull-ring. He had walked all the way from his beach home in Tarifa, a very hilly 20 miles away. He appeared, hot, well-tanned and smiling as ever, with the same mass of thick curly hair, accentuated by his short but muscular wiry frame. He had a dirty linen knapsack containing some bread, cheese, jamon and seven half bottles of Fino, all empty. I wrote in my diary of that period when I saw him quite a bit:</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">'Iain
is one of the most extraordinary drinkers I know. It’s not so much that he drinks a lot of alcohol, it’s
just he doesn’t drink anything else – apart from a solitary <i>café con leche</i>
with his double brandy every morning in Tarifa’s <i>Hotel Continental</i>.' </span></span><br />
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As I waxed lyrical, it was Gibraltar that was proving my cirrhosis-by-the-sea, not Tarifa his.</span><br />
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We had good times. I admired him hugely. He had this immense capacity for fun and erudition, and it was amusing to keep on having to work out which one was showing its face. No one knew how he quite wrote a definitive, rather academic and glowingly reviewed history of tobacco. He had these beautiful Spanish girls knocking about, who supposedly were his researchers on the book. But that was long finished and they were still there. As was Tim (the Aussie surfer in the book), an endless production line of joints. I never really saw any defects I would now associate with an obsessive. In any case, those matters were not of concern to me then. </span><br />
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I was hooked by the book early on in Chapter one. I recognised the 'rare spell of objectivity'(p.4) that comes during suffering. The gift of desperation perhaps. For him it was during his painful recuperation from the titanium implants to his leg. He recognised he was powerless over advancing age but suddenly 'felt all new again'. There was 'plenty left to achieve, hang onto, or let go with good grace.' He is struck with a thought, which he underplays 'as a hint of mysticism' - 'the surfer might be alone in a deep-blue sky, and the tube their route to heaven' (p.7). This is the most important line in the book, because it sets up it's purpose: to show just how much zeal someone can muster in pursuit of a spiritual mission 'to add a coherence to life'. In short to find truth and connection. And how many great anecdotes he can ram in there, for our enjoyment.</span><br />
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Perhaps we are taken on one too many trips to the seaside during the rest of the book. When Iain is off and running he is difficult to stop. But one is left gasping for what comes of it. That however is missing the point of living in the moment. We live to ride and ride to live. I think the conclusion is too short, perhaps like Chapter one. We are told that the trick to life 'is to extract worth from our own insignificance' (p.284). For me this means we've got to stop playing God. By finding out who you are not, you get a better perspective on who you are. </span><br />
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In the meantime we learn something about, tides, swells, bathymetry, meteorology, St Piran, surfer rivalries, and why it is not a sport fit for inclusion in the 2020 Olympics. We learn about the ghastliness of beach officials, beach-side car park attendants, beach-goers generally in England, and beach smoking bans. But all with humour and a humility that comes from not taking oneself too seriously. </span><br />
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Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comNew Ct, Addlestone KT15 2EE, UK51.3771183 -0.492181899999991451.374640299999996 -0.49722439999999141 51.3795963 -0.4871393999999914tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-46420060733587649152018-04-11T11:47:00.002+01:002018-04-19T12:20:36.037+01:00My father's Memorial Service, Monday 9th April 2018, Shaftesbury Methodist Church.<br />
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><strong>Dr. Geoffrey Tapper (4th October 1931 - 2nd March 2018)</strong></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Below is my address at father’s Memorial Service.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Methodist Church in Shaftesbury was full, and the volume of hymn singing, particularly for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfmCH56VsSg" target="_blank">‘How Great Thou Art’</a> (Stuart K. Hine, 1925) – was both wonderful and deeply moving. It seemed the whole of Shaftesbury was roaring behind and above me during that first hymn.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thanks to all who came.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The main tribute, detailing his great life, was given by my oldest brother, Henry, and is viewable </span><a href="https://henrytapper.com/2018/04/10/dr-geoffrey-tapper-our-tribute/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">here</span></a><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> It is well worth reading. My shorter contribution is below:</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";">****</span> </span></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">“My father’s whole life was geared towards working in the
spiritual realm of goodness – as directed by God – <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">thy will not mine be done.</i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">On the front of the order of service for both my father and
his father’s funerals, was the same biblical quote:</span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Blessed is
the Man unto whom the Lord imputeth not iniquity, and in whose Spirit there is
no guile.</span></span></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span></i></span></span></span></span></span></i></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Simple, honest goodness mattered to him the most.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His inheritance to me, and to us all, is a spiritual
one.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">That is his still, small voice.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Still there.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span> </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Taken from Kings 19, his poem ‘Still, small voice’ was
preached as a sermon many times – several times from this spot.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">For many of us, spiritual revelation does not come as a
cymbal crash – 'the earthquake' and 'the storm' in the poem – but something
that persists and is 'gentle', 'low', 'calm' and a 'whisper' – alternative words
to 'still, small voice' used in newer translations of Kings 19.</span></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><em>Dad himself is that spiritual voice for me."<o:p></o:p></em></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><strong><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The Still Small, Voice (Geoffrey Tapper, 2001)<o:p></o:p></span></strong></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Elijah to Mount Sinai Fled<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">From the enchantress, Jezebel,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Israeli queen from outer Hell,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Or otherwise the man was dead.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The earthquake and the storm passed by,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">The rain, the wind were not his choice,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Then from a quiet and cloudless sky<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">There came to him the still small voice.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">How is it for the rest of us?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Do we respond to sound and fury?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Most of us are inured to fuss<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">And this world will not be the jury.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">My joys are pensive, life is slow.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"></span><br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">I sun sit on my patio,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">Switch on some tape recorded hymns,<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 16pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">While sipping a reflective Pimms.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">****</span><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOztbA2atJrOzHznLADW9HTA3Gpmac4gQJnMudBhNYAtvJ8ZRoERbb7HqDxe3vXKYAjem7s-L6aIRRQBMgUMr8pLdmWKgBQADo6szenUMiYeceNgltXME1Cj1qi75fhPgsZoxel4EfISV2/s1600/Shaftesbury+Methodist+Church.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="480" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOztbA2atJrOzHznLADW9HTA3Gpmac4gQJnMudBhNYAtvJ8ZRoERbb7HqDxe3vXKYAjem7s-L6aIRRQBMgUMr8pLdmWKgBQADo6szenUMiYeceNgltXME1Cj1qi75fhPgsZoxel4EfISV2/s640/Shaftesbury+Methodist+Church.jpg" width="480" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif;">Shaftesbury Methodist Church where my father preached his Still, Small Voice Sermon several times, and where his Memorial Service took place.</span> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comShaftesbury SP7, UK51.0046 -2.198082999999996950.984617500000006 -2.238423499999997 51.0245825 -2.1577424999999968tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-24036635522956874672016-07-01T13:26:00.003+01:002017-10-19T22:58:17.171+01:00Libor Mk2? Were the betting markets on the EU Referendum fixed by The City to manipulate FX markets?<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Wild political and economic times
breed paranoia and conspiracy theory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Right now, people are saying the Sunday Times is sniffing around about a big story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A gigantic story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Elements in the City attempted to rig the
relatively illiquid betting markets on the day of the EU Referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They wanted to send Foreign Exchange markets
the wrong way – i.e. strengthen the Pound – so they could sell it at high
levels and make a killing when it collapsed with a Brexit vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their losing outlay on Betfair was modest compared
to what they could win on the vastly more liquid FX markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Is this true?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKwC0zhVI37xXqF1fJsUTO9Rpe3fUMZCxLwV6BAMmQ5fEFHxd5rTDRoQV6JwfnqC-KR3QHRnjFn6SkWU4yXswUDroXYbVZDus2OA_DU4KYIM9FKm9p2KuN1PBTphIcMqVdyJvhGUwcbjdJ/s1600/city+traders+image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKwC0zhVI37xXqF1fJsUTO9Rpe3fUMZCxLwV6BAMmQ5fEFHxd5rTDRoQV6JwfnqC-KR3QHRnjFn6SkWU4yXswUDroXYbVZDus2OA_DU4KYIM9FKm9p2KuN1PBTphIcMqVdyJvhGUwcbjdJ/s400/city+traders+image.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: medium;">Were city traders political villains?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Allegations of market manipulation
at Betfair in particular had been circulating on Twitter for weeks prior to the
vote.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Arch peddler is a</span> <span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;">bête noire</span> of this blog, Professor Leighton Vaughan
Williams (<span lang="EN" style="color: #8899a6; line-height: 115%;"><a href="https://twitter.com/LeightonVW"><span style="color: #8899a6; text-decoration: none;">@LeightonVW</span></a></span><span lang="EN" style="line-height: 115%;">),</span><span style="color: #222222; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"> </span>Director of the Betting Research Unit and Political
Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School –
although he suggested manipulation was in the other direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He insinuated Leave were being ‘bigged up’ in
the markets, and merrily revealed how he was hoovering up value bets on Remain.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Just hours before the Brexit result became known on June 23<sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">rd</span></sup>, 'Remain’ traded as short as 1/10, a 90.9% probability that Britain would stay in
the EU.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Were the public sucked into
believing that Remain were winning, hands down?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Was the social media narrative of a failing Leave
campaign - on the crucial day - a bogus construction of some pernicious speculators?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like lemmings, did punters place losing bets
on Remain, thinking it a slam dunk certainty?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One £100,000 bet was reported at 1/10 from a member of the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Far more seriously, did the actions of some corrupt traders influence
how people voted?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Was the dark hand of
the City attempting a more audacious plot, beyond winning a few quid and
queering capital markets, to send voters the wrong way?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>News of the odds were public as voters
made that thoughtful trudge to the polling booth.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With a Remain victory looking like a near
certainty, perhaps voters either wanted to be on the winning side, or felt some
new assurance in a Remain choice, given their fellow voters were for staying in,
in the very hours of casting their ballot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If the suggestion of betting market rigging is true, this could be a Libor
Mk2 scandal with political knobs on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
vote for Leave might have been larger. Our political future could have been deranged.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For all the naysayers, betting markets have a credibility in
the public mind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is good reason for
trusting those bookies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This blog believes
that markets should usually be our most reliable guide to future political outcomes, in
fact any sort of future outcome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Unlike
answering an opinion poll question, the act of staking personal cash can be a
tax on stupidity - if you lose.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bettors pay more
attention.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The betting market is like a
vast information storage system.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
draws information from every nook and cranny of the public conscious.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Every speech, every interview, every slip,
every piece of punditry, every economic indicator, every pub conversation, every
grating piece of’ Vox Pop’ from the BBC.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In it goes into the mixer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And yes, dear old
polling goes in too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s trusted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But maybe less so now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The verdict on polling's value gets mashed, whisked, sieved and weighed with all other indicators.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
mass of punters attempt to sort the wheat from the chaff, motivated by the
power of self-interest.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the
fullest and most reliable aggregation of our public collective wisdom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">No one television commentator could compete
with it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the campaign, Laura Kuenssberg et al. should
have just read out the moving odds for Remain and Leave, with their implied
probabilities to make it really simple, and let it rest there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That would be our best guide to what was
going on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Unfortunately the professional journalists don't talk odds much, particularly the lofty TV ones, it usually gets in the way of their own take. They also loathe betting as a dirty business, probably thinking they have a responsibility NOT to mention it.</span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But what if this actually beautiful process of public
judgement making, political betting, was being buggered by nefarious capitalists from the City?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Did it happen?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The short answer is that only Betfair and the bookmakers will know who was
staking what.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I worked at Betfair and others.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just as they have been excellent in addressing match-fixing questions,
the onus is on them again to tell the public what was going on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Prior to the investigation however, I will
make two points in defence of betting markets.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Firstly, this is indeed a mad and paranoid story.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem with it – as a conspiracy – is
why would a small group of traders waste probably hundreds of thousands of
pounds, probably millions, to provide a indivisible benefit for many other City
speculators aware of what was going on. How was it all organised?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And how could they be so sure that Leave would win?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The final polling was dire for Leave.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Word has it the City ran its own exit
polling, but decent exit polling on a one-off Referendum is beyond the capabilities
of even the best British political scientists; not just hard but hideously expensive
too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any investigation needs to examine
whether there really was exit polling conducted privately, and what the results
showed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Secondly there is a lovely and even more paranoid
theory to counter the market-rigging one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Bookmakers have been getting increasingly peeved off about the Murdoch
press, particularly the heavyweight Times and Sunday Times, running endless stories
about problem gambling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>23 year old
accountants jumping to their death after losing money playing online poker, and
communities being destroyed by fixed odds betting terminals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's bad copy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I’ve heard rumours – and they are just that –
saying Rupert Murdoch is trying to weaken the existing industry prior to
introducing his very own betting service in association with The Sun – “Sunbets”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As yet, Betfair has largely escaped the
campaign, but this new story isn't great for them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Personally, I don’t believe this particular
conspiracy for a moment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the Sunday
Times run the story they will believe it’s true.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Without pre-judging any possible future inquiry – and leaping
forward several steps into the future, this is what I think actually was wrong
with the betting markets – although I do not know for sure until Betfair and
bookmakers reveal more information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘Wrong’
is also a matter of degree.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just because
Leave drifted to 8/1 on polling day doesn’t mean that the market got it wrong,
any more than the hugely liquid Grand National market got it wrong when Rule
the World romped home at 33/1.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Markets aren’t wrong just because an outsider wins.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are only wrong when outsiders win
repeatedly and the fair share of favourites fail to win in their turn, at a
rate implied by their probability expressed by odds.</span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">To
assess the value of political betting as a predictor of political events
(against polling), the researcher must use long-term data, i.e. a large number
of occurrences.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A large body of global
academic research that shows that betting wins in the long run, and is indeed
devastatingly accurate, material which I will gladly share.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">But a nagging trend has indeed developed of outsiders winning
political betting contests of late.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
is interesting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Think of the 2015
General Election, not just the surprise Tory Majority, but the extraordinary
performance of the Scottish Nationalists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Ladbrokes may have lost up to £2m on that election, and William Hill
reported a £1m loss at their official results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Think also of the remarkable victory of Corbyn, once priced at 1000/1 on
Betfair.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And Trump. All losers for the bookies.<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Bookmakers seem to be increasingly embarrassed – looking
weak.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They have started to produce some
proper hogwash to explain these results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Worse, they have turned on their punters, their very own customers, to
excuse their prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is the official Ladbrokes explanation for the
failure of their markets on the EU Referendum – and it's sad a once great
company has descended so far:<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“there’s a huge amount of wishful thinking
going on in people’s brains when they’re trying to assess the probabilities of
these results”.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">So yes, their
punters are stupid.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ladbrokes’ founder,
Cyril Stein, would be horrified.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Unfortunately, this sad explanation does not help explain why Remain was
as short as 1/10 on the day of voting – assuming that their wishful thinkers were the more emotional (less rational)
Leave punters. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Another now more
complicated explanation now comes into play from Ladbrokes, equally damning of
their own markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem Ladbrokes
says, was a majority of (“wishful”) punters bet on Leave, but the really big
bets came in for Remain, and the majority of the staking. Again, Ladbrokes present a picture of their markets working badly and their punters unable to react correctly to prices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We are also not told the vital
information:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What was their company
position on the main EU Referendum result, each day and overall?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Of course w</span>e would expect more money to be staked on an
odds on favourite (Remain) than an outsider.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Despite this, Ladbrokes could still be taking a position with Leave, offered at longer odds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Were they with Leave or Remain?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Can the pricing of the Referendum better be
explained by the bookmakers than the punters, including from the alleged
nefarious City types?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">One thing is for
sure, we know that Ladbrokes fancied Remain, revealing in the Times Red Box
expert survey a heady prediction for the ‘inners’ of 57.01% (they got 48.11%).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I am
guessing</i> that much of the explanation why Leave was always too long in the
betting – as I repeatedly mentioned during the campaign @mincer and </span><a href="http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2016/05/bet-leave-at-114.html"><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">see
this blog <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">passim</i></span></span></span></span></a><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> – was that the
William Hill and Ladbrokes wanted to bet against Leave, themselves.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not content to eek out a nice little earner on a
vast turnover by jobbing the market (i.e. balancing an equal profit on Leave and a
profit on Remain), they wanted a little gamble of their own.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When the money came in from Leave punters,
they didn’t move the price commensurately, as a neutral market operator would,
but kept Leave longer and more attractive than it should have been.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When some lumpy bets came in for Remain on
the day – they collapsed the price to unrealistic levels, really bad jobbing probably.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Assuming the role of bad political scientists
rather than proper bookmakers, they didn’t want to lay this money for Remain. Graham Sharpe, Head spokesman at Hills, confirmed to me during the campaign that his company was taking a position with "Leave".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It wasn’t the “City Traders” who were taking
the position – it was the bookmakers – just has they had wrongly against a Tory
Overall Majority in 2015, Corbyn and Trump.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If there was “City money” entering the market on the day, the bookmakers
accentuated the effect of it on the market price.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This may have had an effect on the Betfair
market, because of course they are linked.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Any arbitrage between the two will be filled in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Only complete openness
about their trading positions and P & L from Ladbrokes, Hills and
others and other trading information from Betfair will resolve why the EU Referendum betting market on Thursday 23<sup><span style="font-size: xx-small;">rd</span></sup>
June behaved so oddly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is
extraordinary that in such as tight two-horse race, at one stage, the betting
markets suggested Remain had over a 90% chance of winning - as I pointed out on my Twitter account at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">Of course this would have been an important
indicator to global financial markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The question remains:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was the
price of 1/10 a reflection of the weight of genuine money from the public for
Remain, money from the City for Remain - either legitimate hedging or attempting to rig the market, or the
traditional bookmakers taking fright and protecting their position - which
favoured a Remain outcome?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></span></span>
<span style="font-family: "calibri";"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">And was there
any secret exit polling conducted,as alleged by city institutions?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
allegations circulating are completely unproved, as our my suggestions that the
bookmakers were the real reason why the odds were all wrong, not the massive crowd of
punters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There may have been some big
bets for Remain, from whom we do not know.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>At the moment, there are more questions than answers, and openness from
bookmakers is needed.</span></span></span></span></div>
Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-25705409506595366732016-06-30T12:54:00.000+01:002016-08-09T10:44:08.499+01:00YouGov deserve credit for showing the weakness in telephone polling methods during the EU ReferendumBritish pollsters face a crisis of confidence. Witness the <a href="http://eprints.ncrm.ac.uk/3789/1/Report_final_revised.pdf" target="_blank">Sturgis Report (Jan 2016)</a> on their woeful 2015 General Election performance, highlighting response error, sampling error and even herding between the firms. <br />
<br />
However, for the (online) pollsters, EU Referendum performance was much better, particularly from the most progressive firm, YouGov. They courageously and correctly deconstructed Populus' (telephone) polling before the result. See their excellent critique <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/05/20/revealed-evidence-greater-skews-phone-polls/" target="_blank">here</a>. This was perhaps the most useful bit of academic analysis published by anybody during the entire campaign, and boldest. And the final result supported their claims. Telephone polling was collectively wrong, often predicting Remain 10+ points ahead, before mysteriously converging on the online firms/ numbers at the last minute. More herding methinks. The online pollsters had generally seen the race neck-and-neck. <br />
<br />
The divergence heaped more harm the industry but the telephone pollsters should take the blame. Rather pathetically, Populus had released a telephone poll in February with 44% graduates, and 46% in March in its weighted sample. Clearly their telephoned graduates responded in greater number, yet despite 'education' being the top demographic indicator of EU support, more important than age or class, Populus didn't weigh the interviewed graduates to the national average of 27%-33%, (the real number in the U.K. from the 2011 Census and adult population surveys.) This showed how fallible polling can be to expertly devised weightings and assumptions<br />
<br />
The disparity between telephone and online polling was the most pressing quandary for political science during the Referendum. But no one (to my knowledge) adjudicated between YouGov and Populus, bar Matt Singh who gave weak support for telephone polling, proving all winning streaks come to an end one day. In truth, the likes of Mike Smithson and co, weren't prepared to stick their necks out on something they struggled to reach a conclusion on. <br />
<br />
Very few got to hear about this major fallout between YouGov and Andrew Cooper of Populus, the retained pollster for Remain, and his new side-kick, Peter Kellner (pictured).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGouRIyQX0H3DKPiyWzvy945oHoYtjCCsjZrrdg58uD5raPjXJIeRy53V1BGTChKT1NiNj_PK1Zz7R_2QYo703kccpQAucoWN8lvsyzRaxG_Mv8I66Cws7e8vvUXxSu0aYK-zVcEnS1g4D/s1600/kellner.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGouRIyQX0H3DKPiyWzvy945oHoYtjCCsjZrrdg58uD5raPjXJIeRy53V1BGTChKT1NiNj_PK1Zz7R_2QYo703kccpQAucoWN8lvsyzRaxG_Mv8I66Cws7e8vvUXxSu0aYK-zVcEnS1g4D/s320/kellner.jpg" width="241" /></a></div>
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<br />
<br />
Remarkably, Kellner was President of YouGov until just two months previously, but now began railing against the whole online polling model that is championed by YouGov. <a href="http://politicscounter.com/?p=56" target="_blank">Stunning broadsides</a> flew at YouGov methodology from the ex YouGov figurehead. Ultimately, YouGov won this tiff on the basis of the final result. They have the best staff (like Joe Twyman, Antony Wells, Stephan Shakespeare and many others) and the strongest reputation - only enhanced by the EU Referendum. Kellner's status meanwhile, despite his undoubted eloquence, continues to nose-dive.Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comShaftesbury SP7 8NL, UK51.003248199999987 -2.188186500000028951.000750199999985 -2.193229000000029 51.00574619999999 -2.1831440000000288tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-15112883119935980992016-05-18T08:42:00.003+01:002016-06-28T10:27:05.189+01:00Bet "Leave" at 11/4In recent days, several people have asked for my view on the EU Referendum result. I have spent three years on a PhD looking at EU support in Britain and a lifetime in political betting, on and off as a political odds-maker. I've also taken some serious hits. The worst was a £16k loss on the 1997 General Election opposing the Lib Dems. As a spread bet, for every seat they won over 30, I lost £1,000. They got 46, including winning Winchester by one vote. The first one vote winning margin since 1867. Even today I wince as I drive past that place on the M3. So here we go again.<br />
<br />
This blog believes in 'crowd wisdom' as expressed by betting market indicators. On a liquid market like the EU Referendum, we should expect the market to be a reliable guide as to what may happen. Taking it on with a bet, together with the bookmaker margin, is unadvisable. Unless you have a strong view that is. And I think there are two things badly wrong with the market at the moment.<br />
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The first is bookmakers are taking positions with 'Remain'. It is likely that Ladbrokes and William Hill have £1m+ liabilities on a 'Leave' win. There are plenty of Leave backers out there, but generally the layers are not prepared to make commensurate changes to their odds when accommodating them. This means their prices don't actually represent market sentiment, but their own trading floor views. We've seen this before with the General Election, Corbyn and Trump, and each time they have come unstuck. They think they know better. <br />
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From talking to the current odds-makers, and seeing them operate, it's clear they are being 'advised' by political experts - academics and the like. Matthew Shaddick, the political man from Ladbrokes, likes pitching up at academic conferences. In an unholy alliance, he denounces the value of his customers opinions in front of an appreciative audience of expert political scientists, who also loathe betting as a predictive indicator. At one conference before the 2015 GE, he stated that "political markets are not a good guide to what may happen". So better take the expert view instead, the complicated academic models and frigged polling methods, with thousands of highly breakable whirring parts. Received academic wisdom tends to think that the 'Government cue' is still strong, like it was in 1975, and that voters are uninformed and uninterested on Europe and will fall into line. My own research of British Election Study data from 2008-2012 shows the opposite. Voters are increasingly independent minded (volatile) and have responded to the crisis in the Eurozone (something Leave should be focusing more on). Since 2000, EU referendums in Holland, France and Ireland have all gone against the pro-EU Establishment, much to their surprise. Who is to say it won't happen likewise in more Eurosceptic Britain?<br />
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The academic experts and even pundits like politicalbetting.com are also poor oddsmen. Firstly they are inherent favourite backers. That is what betting unsophisticates do. They think 'what is most likely to happen?' and go for it. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. But betting is about assessing chances against odds of reward, in short, value. <br />
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Secondly, all the noise you hear on Twitter is either from fruit-bat 'Leave' evangelicals or reasoned liberals. That is the image anyway. Academia - showered in EU money - is pro-remain, and hangers on to their output, particularly those noisy on Twitter, like politicalbetting, are well known liberals too. In short, 'informed social media' doesn't want Leave to win, and doesn't want to back something it despises. The same happened with the Tory victory, Corbyn and Trump, whilst the betting public felt differently - and won. Ladbrokes lost £2m on GE 2015. An extraordinary failure when they had so much two way business to eek out a profit. This was a golden opportunity for bookmaking to prove its worth against polling, instead it just followed it, breaking the golden rule that the market knows better than a handful of traders. <br />
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Lastly, I think a bubble for Remain is developing. This is most evident in the Times Red Box Survey, where the great and the good of British Politics (and the public) are asked to submit their predicted vote percentage for Remain (average is 54%). It's revealing. For example, Matthew Parris thinks 62.5% which proves he is unhinged. But surely, people are going to be influenced by what others have entered, even Parris and a phalanx of other liberal insiders, kindly marked up with an asterisk on the site so we can pay them special attention. The exercise lacks one key criteria for a 'Wise Crowd' - independence of judgement.<br />
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Then there is Betfair. People will say that this is a perfect betting market and it doesn't involve bookmakers taking positions, advised by their academic advisors and powered by their own egos. This is just wrong. The exchange market reflects the strong traditional fixed odds market. Arbitrages between the two are soon filled in. And the old world bookies are far less likely to move their prices. This is why they build up their liability positions.<br />
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Set against the noise of this betting event, and structural reasons why bookmakers may be underestimating Leave chances in their prices, there is some solid evidence to examine. Pollsters are all over the place and have lost credibility. But one thing about their averaged results can be relied upon - they will be consistently wrong over time. We may not know just how well Leave and Remain are doing at any one moment including now, but over the days and weeks we can see how things are moving for the two camps (assuming no methodological changes by the pollsters). Here there is a clear trend. Leave are winning this campaign. Look at the remorseless rise of the red Leave line to now challenge the blue Remain line. This trend matters hugely, because unless there is some fundamental change to how the campaign is being conducted, it is likely to continue. And that means - from the graph below (courtesy of Prof. Harold Clarke) - Leave could soon start to overtake Remain. (Update 13/06/2016 - And they now have).<br />
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(Updated 13/06/2016)</div>
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So what is the advice for someone who wants a bet? Look at <a href="http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result?selectionName=stay" target="_blank">Oddschecker.com</a>. 11/4 is generally available about a Leave vote. Have a go and pick up a free bet at the same time. These odds suggest there is only a 26.7% chance of Leave winning, and 73.3% chance of Remain winning. It is worth checking these percentages against the full gamut of prediction percentages on the excellent <a href="https://electionsetc.com/">https://electionsetc.com/</a>. <br />
<i></i><br />Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-27984846363518467862015-10-20T07:30:00.000+01:002016-12-28T00:10:57.021+00:00Academic unanimity in favour of EU membership is to be expected, but derogatory views about public attitudes are less acceptable<br />
<a href="http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/10/02/farage-for-breitbart-universities-are-rife-with-eu-propaganda-join-my-campaign-against-it/" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Nigel Farage has called a campaign for the impartiality of British academia in the forthcoming EU Membership referendum</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">. His argument is that academics are so widely and heavily funded by the EU they cannot be properly free-thinking. On this he is surely right. In July, Universities for Europe and Universities UK (which represent 133 higher education institutions) came out with unequivocal backing for the campaign for Britain to remain in the EU. How can this be reconciled with the idea that universities should be bastions of open-mindedness and free speech? How can any academic speak out without fear when the 'company policy' is against him? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I've spent four years studying public support for the EU (or lack of it) at a British University. I know about the pressures to conform to the orthodox wisdoms of academics. (My two excellent PhD supervisors are most certainly blameless here, as is Matt Goodwin who I worked for on his latest Ukip book - published next month). The tacit rule is don't question the EU funding arrangements for research. And never criticise the holy grail: the €14.7 billion</span><a href="http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/erasmus-plus/index_en.htm" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"> Erasmus+ programme</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">. You will have an irate Erasmus exchange student sitting right next to you. Sometimes I have felt like a dangerous heretic. Not once have I heard a qualified academic speak out in favour of leaving the European Union at a public event, such as an academic conference. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">A survey before the last election of 1,019 academics for the Times Higher Education Supplement found only a lonely 4 who supported the Eurosceptic Ukip. Reason enough you might say, to return to the days post 1603 of the 'fancy franchises' when Oxford and Cambridge Univerisites had two MPs each of their own. My arriviste institution, the Univeristy of London, was granted one through the Second Reform Act of 1867. Nowadays however, it's generally accepted that the more cerebral do not necessarily make better voters. </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">They like the rest of us have their own interests. And these, as much as their unique insights explain how academia has become so embarrassingly detached from the collective wisdom of the average voter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Armed only with one vote like the rest of the public, academics can still exert considerable influence on our politics through their research. As I show below, it's one central idea from academia that frames how the media report the public debate on the EU, and unsurprisingly, it's a favourable idea for the 'remain in the EU' lobby.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The idea actually stems less from decent research than a prejudice academics hold about the wisdom of public opinion on EU matters. My research work has challenged the central 'EU friendly' rule that dominates European Studies departments and colours voter behaviour research on the EU issue. It's this: the public cannot be trusted to make sensible decisions on EU integration. They don't understand its complexities. They are uninterested in its remoteness. And, most seriously, they are led by their emotions (when not by the political class). The intellectual justification is in part poor empirical research and part suspect psychological theory. More specifically in Britain, the public, so the argument goes, see immigration and economics as separate concerns within the overall EU debate, but too often their rational economic judgements get infected with more visceral (non-rational) feelings of national identity that drive immigration attitudes. To use the academic vernacular, EU support is structured two-dimensionally, and these dimensions are 'cross-cutting' or 'orthogonal'. Simply put: the two types of support which make up the overall 'remain or leave' judgement in the public mind are separate but conflicting. Rational thoughts can't be squared with visceral feelings. How could voters make head or tail of it? </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The derogatory stance of academia towards the voting public on the EU is an all important subtext to the forthcoming referendum. Whilst the 'remain' lobby would not be so unwise as to say explicitly the public are confused and can't be trusted, the Europhile camp believe it. They will use the 'two dimensions' idea in a more subtle way to frame the debate. They want arguments about immigration and economics detached so they can play on economic fears, whilst branding the immigration side of the debate an emotional side-show. So far they are succeeding. In the public debate, the idea of independent economic and immigration aspects of the question are independent is all pervasive. When you hear the ubiquitous words 'soft' (economic driven) and 'hard' (identity driven) Euroscepticism you are hearing a narrative of divided, incompatible attitudes. Even opinion pollsters measure interest in immigration as separate from EU membership (and then conclude there's not much interest in the EU question). But the public don't see it this way. They have no difficulty reconciling their economic and immigration views. For my PhD, I have researched different types of attitude towards EU membership, particularly on immigration and economic questions. Having analysed a range of survey data, I have found no empirical evidence suggesting economic and identity attitudes on the EU question are anything but one-dimensional. Economic and identity concerns are tightly correlated - i.e. they face the same way, either against or for membership. They only form observable separate dimensions when survey indicators are 'cherry-picked' to conform to the beloved two-dimensional theory (E.g. Boomgaarden et al., 2011,<em> Mapping EU attitudes: conceptual and empirical dimensions of EU support</em>. European Union Politics, 12(2) 241-266). </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: large;">Some of my research is displayed below. The table shows a range of 'items' or survey question responses from British voters (vertically) to the 'Intune' survey of 2009 (random-probability sampling). Some of these questions ('Diffuse Identity items') tap voter feelings of attachment and belonging to Europe and represent deep-seated emotional ties - 'hard support' if you like. The second set of questions are more specific and are meant to tap rational (economic) evaluations of membership and EU performance, such as whether it benefits me personally or the country. This group of items represents so called 'soft support'. According to the received wisdom of academia, these two sets of attitudes should not load onto one dimension, but load onto two dimensions. In other words, the set of hard identity items should correlate with each other, and so should the set of soft performance evaluation items. But the two groups should not correlate together as one because they are different dimensions. This is not the case. The one dimensional model is a better fit to the data than the multidimensional model (denoted by a higher Bentler-Bonnet test score and a lower Standardised RMR test score). This means it more accurately reflects public attitudes to Europe. The public see the questions of identity and economics as one. The idea of two dimensions is a fiction, according to my research. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Imaging British public attitudes as one-dimensional helps explain why support changes in response to new information - and it does. If British EU opinion is a 'great concrete block' of deep-seated unconscious prejudice - as Tony Blair's pollster Philip Gould* said in 2002 - why should it move in a meaningful and measurable way? But it does. You will have to wait for my PhD to be published for more on the structure of EU support, and why levels of British public support go up and down. Suffice to say now, the main implication of my work is that we need to take the wisdom of the voting crowd far more seriously than the existing academic literature would suggest. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">For campaigners, this is yet more reason to adopt a bottom-up approach where the public are engaged by the respective sides and take part in the debate. Don't think they will be influenced by elite arguments like they were in 1975. The public know a lot more about the EU now, and elites are less trusted. In my PhD I also provide multivariate modelling of time-series data, showing that the power of politicians to influence public attitudes has reduced sharply, particularly during the Eurozone crisis between 2008-2012. The public are increasingly drawing their own conclusions, armed with new information on EU performance. They now have sufficiently well structured views to be repelled by patronising politicians who they don't trust much. They are far more likely to listen to the rest of the public, which could make crowd sourced 'bottom-up' campaigning a decisive tactic, if anyone knows how to do it. And don't imagine that their judgements won't change sharply in response to new information on the immigration issue, on EU or domestic economic performance, or moving evaluations of the party leaders.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">I don't believe that either side of the debate (particularly remain) are ready to really trust the public with a crowd-sourced campaign. The expensive PR agencies of central London will be in heavy demand once again, producing winning arguments and clever slogans led by often suspect opinion polling. Inside their lavish offices the detached members of the political elite will devise plans to manipulate the conscious thoughts and unconscious desires of the public. The public will never be granted ownership of the campaign with a buzzing and gamified online strategy. By this I mean voter / activist / spokesmen profiles and fund-raising; grass-root campaigning leaderboards and prizes; cartoon, blog, and vlog competitions; online ratings of politicians or arguments and prediction tournaments on what might happen. If you haven't heard of this stuff, its because it has never happened. Instead the public will be cajoled as a plaything, not treated as players - never granted ownership of the campaign, for example on which spokesman should get to appear in the media. Excellent spokesman could emerge from the general public providing a greater voltage to the debate, perhaps having been voted as a winner within an online competition. Who is to say there is not a brilliant communicator out there amongst the general public who has yet to be unearthed? Such a campaign would not be devoid of PR spin. Any campaign that could show authenticity in listening to the public would have the right image. The voters would feel part of their own movement.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">The blog below on the pernicious impact of Sigmund Freud and family discusses why our intellectual culture has been anti the 'wisdom of crowds' idea - that the many are smarter than the few. It's the underlying reason why academics justify crowd stupidity and is most prevalent on the more established 'remain' side of the EU debate. The remain lobby has never believed in the wisdom of crowds since the days of Monnet. But their elite-centric view of the world of grand top-down plans and big centrally coordinated groups, is fast being pummelled into a flat expanse of rubble by the Internet. If there is a long term underlying cultural change that will see 'remain' lose, this is it. The crowd will understand it faster than the planners and Europhiles. The future is theirs.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><strong>Sigmund Freud and family have a lot to answer for - a rant against Freudianism in theory and practice</strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Apart from advocating
cocaine as an anti-depressant, Sigmund Freud first suggested that our behaviour
owes more to emotions and desires lurking in the unconscious than the rational
assessments we make consciously.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Western
civilisation represses these base instincts Freud maintained. Subsequently,
such repression would either be considered bad (as the Nazis thought, along
with the lunatic Wihelm Reich, Herbert Marcuse and a school of modern day
Marxists); or for good (as the generation of post-war paternalists
believed).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What united both the
fascists, Marxists, lunatics and the post-war interventionists, was a believe
that the unconscious desires of the masses were there to be either let loose or
managed by elites who always knew more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Effectively, by giving a pseudo-scientific account of the dangerous
capacity of the masses, Freud had legitimised any amount of subtle controlling
by our leaders, benign or not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>‘Nudge
theory’ is merely the latest incarnation of the supposedly benign variety.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Blair was perhaps the most pernicious recent
exponent of mass manipulation of the public into support for his just causes,
such as his liberal interventionist foreign policy and support for EU
membership. Without compunction, he and Alistair Campbell happily 'sexed up'
the dossier justifying war in Iraq in 2003.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Before the Internet, and
the emergence of a new faith in ‘crowd wisdom’, twentieth century business
followed the political manual of Freud, thanks in part to Freud's nephew, Edward
Bernays. He pioneered techniques to deceive the public into rampant consumerism
(helping to contribute to the Wall Street Crash of 1929).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was the first to talk of 'public
relations', a disingenuous term for as practice in 1920s America of tapping
public emotions over reason. One of his first jobs was to break the taboo on
women smoking in America by shoving cigarettes in the mouths of suffragettes
(who were then photographed) to connect the activity with female emancipation. The Freudians understood cigarettes at the time to be represented in the subconscious mind as penises, so suddenly women had willies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After WW2 he worked for the American
government stoking up the emotions of Americans against a perfectly legitimate
new government in Guatemala, the original 'Banana Republic', that threatened US
banana interests and was made to pose a communist threat to US security through
his falsehoods.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you haven't watched
Adam Curtis' documentary, </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ3RzGoQC4s" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">'The Century of the Self'</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"> (BBC, 2002), please do. (</span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=234H8X1-JiA" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">'TheMayfair Set'</span></a><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"> by him from 1999 is brilliant too – spot a similar theme).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bernays’ favourite word was stupidity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In fact he called most people around him
stupid.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Naturally enough, the alternative position to believing in
'crowd wisdom' is considering the public stupid and advocating
paternalism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are really two ends of
the scale.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Perhaps the greatest exercise
in paternalism since 1945 has been European integration. Think of the dominant
narrative of European Studies departments about British voters and the EU: that
European integration is objectively beneficial but remote and complicated,
beyond the cognition of generally uninterested voters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead those voters are falsely conscious of
their interests.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are obsessed with
the threat posed to British identity by EU governance and EU immigration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(See my critique of Hugo Young's 'This
Blessed Plot' on this website - May 2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In his final interview as Prime Minister, Blair offered a frank summary
of the false<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>consciousness theory in
respect to EU integration: 'The British people are sensible enough to know
that, even if they have a certain prejudice about Europe, they don't expect
their government necessarily to share it or act upon it' he said. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">More
broadly, this narrative on public support for the EU is incompatible with a
whole branch of classical political science rooted in the assumption
that man is capable of pursuing his own interests, or as Anthony Downs puts it
(1957:2) “that there is a pattern – or ordering of political behaviour that is
rational, i.e. ‘reasonably directed towards the achievement of conscious
goals’. This is fundamental to the study of voter attitudes, because ‘only if
human actions form some pattern can they ever be forecast or the relations
between them be subject to some analysis’. The alternative approach, that has the currency in European Studies departments, elevates
psychological, social and emotional factors over economic ones in voter
decision-making and is sometimes called 'behavioural economics'. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">My
PhD thesis (summarised in my blog from April 2015) argues that the whole study
of public support for EU membership has become deeply confused and unhelpful
because it is now dominated by this pessimistic approach to voter motivations,
incorrectly specifying two distinct and conflicting dimensions to public EU
support: soft (cognitive / economic / rational) and hard (emotional / identity
- from the unconscious). No consistent theory is supplied about how these
dimensions might be related and when each component becomes more important, and
hence no rational theory is possible for what causes over time change in
attitudes. It is really a failure to find a third way approach between believing
in the wisdom of crowds and believing in their stupidity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=3127" target="_blank">This link</a> is an easy to understand exposition of the behavioural
theory from Prof. Richard Thaler, given in a lecture a few months ago at the LSE.
(University of Chicago, co-author of ‘Nudge’ - that attempt to intellectualise
paternalist government).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I dislike the
sneering tone of Thaler, seemingly a common trait with most behavioural
economists. The lecture is full of tiresome jokes about how daft (other) people
are. The most ghastly behavioural economists (like Thaler) love anecdotes
deriding their opponents and are deeply patronising of the public.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Paul Dolan, a professor at the LSE also talks
briefly after Thaler (at 39:40). He says one preposterous thing. Before GE2015,
he was a huge fan of Betfair as 'a really brilliant prediction market' in
politics - suggesting, somewhat inconsistently, belief in the predictive power
of 'crowd wisdom'. However since the election in May his view has undergone a
180 degree volte face, because the market got it wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is just one example of how people who
try and occupy the middle ground between believing in crowd wisdom and
psychological theory are just confused.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Of course, the informative value of a betting market on a future outcome
cannot be judged on one case, however important that case may be.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Favourites do not always win, they only win a
percentage of the time. Therefore the predictive quality of markets must be
judged probabilistically, on multiple cases over time.</span></div>
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</div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">One of Thaler's buddies is Cass Sunstein, who
wrote a largely admirable book on crowd wisdom called 'Infotopia' (2007).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unfortunately he is also a 'nudger' like
Thaler, believing that failures in crowd wisdom are caused by groups becoming 'cocooned'
by 'information cascades' (essentially herding), and need to be corrected by the
great and the good - the nudgers like him.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But when do we know that such action is required?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And who can we ever trust to nudge?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What do you think?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Listen to the podcast and don't waste £11.99
on Sunstein and Thaler's book.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial"; font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial";">* The late Philip Gould was well meaning. He thought through his focus groups New Labour could actually listen and measure what the public wanted. This was an improvement on Labour in the 1980s, but the 1997 Labour election victory was not 'an end to the elitist politics that has governed Britain for the last 100 years' - see <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJ3RzGoQC4s" target="_blank">here</a> at 3.46:00. In government Blair maintained the old paternalism.</span></div>
</div>
Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comLondon, UK51.5073509 -0.1277582999999822351.1912379 -0.77320529999998222 51.8234639 0.51768870000001777tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-18248076289414345602015-09-14T14:17:00.001+01:002015-11-14T14:56:06.247+00:00An African City<span style="font-size: large;">A BBC World Service programme worth listening to early on Saturday and Sundays is "Weekend". It's is a marathon 150 minute discussion of current affairs and global cultures, hosted by the excellent
presenter, Julian Worricker. It happens between 0500 and 0730 GMT (0600 and 0830 British
Summer Time). </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Two interesting guests appear every week to comment on the show's content, without anything more than an a layman's interest in each topic. They are usually well selected natural combatants. A few weeks ago, the iconoclastic Peter Oborne made a guest appearance and it was early morning fireworks. More recently Giles Fraser made his debut, the pious Guardian columnist and South London clergyman. Unfortunately his performance is no longer available online.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The Reverend had to comment on a new African hit drama, which tracks the lives of some very posh and beautiful young Ghanaian women (who turn out to be sometimes loveable, othertimes ghastly). They have returned to their homeland from America and Britain, encountering a range of Third World problems jeopardising their new First World life-styles. </span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ggCvrcVCUTI" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: large;">Episode 4 can be watched by clicking here</span></a><span style="font-size: large;"> where one of the ladies attempts to recover her shipment of luggage, most keenly her personal sexual aid, entombed in Ghana's inefficient customs system. The ten episodes comprising the first series are only twelve minutes long and only available on YouTube. A second series is coming, aided by crowd-funding and now bought by a range of African broadcasters, aware of the proven popularity of the show. Getting funding for home-grown television in Africa is clearly harder than in Britain.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGsnDsqQQW7Eyx0vCzWUtfYRcfUFQGXQLHDnZq32vNLOwT4EYhWtbI-HMUA4q7SVSpfWurwZUyZ1zLPB1sE04Z98AMj2DzTUQTGMI9mennRtdzuhz66I9W8WUO_Gr1MRjD8WasLJPMc1wi/s1600/an+african+city.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></a><br /></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQQ3r635-574NtJXMlVSKSx4XJDRigLEFxjY9YjEocM5xAzkPktBD70uq5AIMVX7fZdhQPF9f7hJ-RviWPK5OsHnRLiW1jPo7o3Tfj7KHaRq9LmXwbBrSzaF3N7blXXWcV2XuxOnwNfuya/s1600/an+african+city.bmp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQQ3r635-574NtJXMlVSKSx4XJDRigLEFxjY9YjEocM5xAzkPktBD70uq5AIMVX7fZdhQPF9f7hJ-RviWPK5OsHnRLiW1jPo7o3Tfj7KHaRq9LmXwbBrSzaF3N7blXXWcV2XuxOnwNfuya/s400/an+african+city.bmp" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">For a mass of Africans, particularly its women, An African City is popular because of its aspirational flight of fantasy, rather like Sex in The City. But people like Giles Fraser would prefer it if African television was concentrating on the continent's existing miseries: poverty, violence, disease and general squalor. In short, he wants Africa itself to adopt his missions through its popular culture, never losing sight of its burdens that must be vanquished.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
Upon his sincere expression of shock that a mention of Accra's slums never featured in any of the twelve programmes, he was duly reminded by the marvellously robust producer of the series, Nicole Amarteifio, that she retained the right to produce successful entertainment, the value of which, lay precisely in its unreality. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Her pain and anger at Giles Fraser's criticism was authentic and clear to hear. And it takes an objection from an African for it to resonate. Africans want to get on with their own lives, on their own terms, without their changing culture being forever trammelled to the confines of a patronising Western image. This is the West's love of pigeon-holing the great continent as a 'basket case', an outlet for its own guilty conscience that prefers to govern than watch, listen and enjoy.</span><br />
<br />
<o:p> </o:p>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-65206593701917141452015-07-08T21:46:00.000+01:002020-05-26T21:15:26.425+01:00One pager from Dominic Cummings on "Why do I want Britain to leave the EU?"<br />
<span lang="EN" style="font-size: x-small; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><em><strong>I've added this short polemic to my blog because it represents modern British Euroscepticism at its most cogent (and concise). It's a positive economic case that doesn't get heard enough.</strong></em></span><br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span><br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">The EU suffers a combination
of huge debts, mass unemployment, a rapidly ageing population combined with
unsustainable pension obligations, and an anti-entrepreneurial and
anti-technology culture. It has created a euro that damages prosperity, undermines
democracy, and encourages extremism. Its dysfunctional bureaucracy is
manipulated by corporate interests who like to use the EU machinery to crush
competition (just as people from Adam Smith to the democratic left have warned
about big business). From public procurement to international trade, our
membership undermines good government and sensible policy and wastes billions
annually. It is so bureaucratic and slow-moving that it cannot adapt
quickly to challenges and is the opposite of the sort of agile institution
necessary to cope with contemporary and imminent global challenges – for
example, it is so slow moving that it remains stuck with agricultural
subsidies dreamed up in the 1950s and 1960s that raise prices for the poor to
subsidise rich farmers while damaging agriculture in Africa.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Meanwhile, we need new forms of
governance to cope with the spread of markets and technology. We need <em>global</em>
cooperation on many issues including profound technological changes such
as genetic engineering and robotics. Such cooperation is
undermined by the dysfunctional and parochial EU.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Whether they abandon the euro,
muddle on, or make a great leap forward to the long planned political union,
Britain will do best for herself <em>and Europe</em> and by removing itself
from this experiment and showing an alternative path. We could help <i>strengthen</i>
international cooperation on the biggest issues facing humanity. By
demonstrating the success of a different approach, we could have <em>real</em> influence,
rather than the chimera of influence vainly chased by the Foreign Office from
meeting room to meeting room since the 1970s – a chase that simply led to
concession after concession rather than influencing Brussels to change path.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">A NO vote will force a profound
rethink of how we organise politically and enable us to develop new systems
based on <em>decentralised cooperation</em> and <em>distributed decision-making</em>.
This is vital given all the problems the world faces. My </span><a href="https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/the-odyssean-project-2/"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="color: blue;">2013 essay</span></span></a><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> and this blog (</span><a href="https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/standin-by-the-window-where-the-light-is-strong-de-extinction-machine-intelligence-the-search-for-extra-solar-life-neural-networks-autonomous-drone-swarms-bombing-parliament-genetics-amp/"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><span style="color: blue;">here</span></span></a><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">) described many of these problems and suggested
some ideas about how Britain could place education and science at the heart of
its national policy instead of EU membership. This would be far preferable to
our current behaviour – petulant and embarrassing whining and
obstructionism on the euro-federalist project, combined with a complete
lack of useful alternative ideas born of post-Suez Whitehall defeatism.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">We can do much better…</span><br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span><br />
<br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><em>Originally published on Dominic Cummings' blog - June 19th 2015. See (bottom of) https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2015/06/19/on-the-referendum-4-an-exploratory-committee-and-the-beginning-of-a-no-campaign/</em></span>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-82414915245424828302015-05-07T13:00:00.000+01:002015-07-18T11:10:32.535+01:00Predicting GE 2015: Which group of forecasters should we rely upon: 'the expert crowd', 'the betting crowd' or the 'mass public crowd'?<strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Author note: Albert Tapper (@mincer) was political market-maker at the Sporting Index spread betting firm for the 1997 General Election and is now researching Ukip and this year's General Election for a forthcoming book by Dr Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo.</span><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></strong><br />
<strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></span></strong><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="color: black;">
</span></span><span style="font-size: large;">
</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="color: black;"><strong><span style="color: red; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 18pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Postscript, Sunday 10th May 2015:</span></strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black;">The article below was written on Thursday
7th May, before the polls had closed on this extraordinary UK
Election. Then the unexpected result came through, met by universal shock. Against all the expert forecasts
and final odds of 14/1 on Betfair, the Conservatives won the 325 seats required for an 'overall majority' in the House of Commons, delivering one of the greatest upsets in British electoral history. David Axelrod, President Obama's election strategist described it as </span><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11592840/Independent-inquiry-announced-into-what-went-wrong-with-election-polls.html" target="_blank"><span style="color: black;">the most stark failure of polling that he has ever seen</span></a><span style="color: black;">. The British Polling Council (BPC) called an immediate inquiry. The final tally of 331 Conservative seats was 41 seats higher than the last betting market estimation from Sporting Index of 290 seats. It was 50 seats higher than the daily average of 281 seats from the three main academic forecasters: Electionsetc.com, Electionforecast.co.uk and the Polling Observatory (16 April 2015 - 6 May 2015 inclusive). The final prediction from Electionforecast, released on the 7th May was also for 281 Conservative seats. Given these forecasts and the betting markets had barely moved ten or fifteen seats in the preceding six months, the scale of the sudden movement was stunning. If, that is, the change was 'a sudden movement' or 'late swing'. The Conservatives may have been leading all along, just never measured as doing so. The 'stewards inquiry' by the BPC will discover this and </span><a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-shy-english-nationalists-who-won-it-for-the-tories-and-flummoxed-the-pollsters/" target="_blank"><span style="color: black;">its causes</span></a><span style="color: black;"> (Lib Dem / Labour 'switchers' or Ukip 'penumbra'?) Either way, the betting markets and the academic forecasts had got the result badly wrong, particularly the 'expert' academics. Both groups will struggle to pass blame onto the miserable collective effort of the pollsters, upon which their forecasts were very largely constructed. The emphasis given to polling data in any forecast model or individual voter or betting decision is intrinsic to the quality of that decision, each forecaster has the power to reject such information.</span></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black;"><em>(Footnote: The betting market figures are taken solely from the Sporting Index spread market, the most liquid of all political betting markets where seats are traded like a share price. By contrast, the seat forecasts from fixed odds bookmakers such as Ladbrokes and Betfair are derived of probabilities from their relatively illiquid constituency betting markets and are therefore a less reliable guide to crowd wisdom. Crucially these fixed odds company predictions are not tradable and are produced for public relations purposes only. Unsurprisingly, during the course of the campaign these poorer predictions have been in regular arbitrage, notionally at least, with the tradable spread betting markets.)</em> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br /></div>
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<span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">In this regard, this article provides new insights into
how the betting markets and the expert forecasts moved during the campaign, both relative to each other and over time. On Twitter, the more vocal elements on both sides have struggled to conceal their antipathy towards the other at times. Bettors have charged experts with arrogance and unworldliness, whilst experts readily dismiss bettors as simplistic or partisan. No surprises then that large differences between the two sets of forecasts have opened up, despite their self-professed mutual reliance on the same (now suspect) polling data. <span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">In the light of these differences and the systemic issues revealed in the polling, it is worth speculating whether the betting markets were, late in the day, becoming increasingly sceptical about the reliability of the polling, and if so why? In short, the market could have grown wise with age by beginning to discount the polling info - whilst the academic forecasts made no change to the powerful influence of vote intention polling on their models. </span></span></span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">One rationale for discounting, given prior to the event, comes from Matt Singh of <a href="http://www.ncpolitics.uk/" target="_blank">Number Cruncher Politics</a>, who argued that the relatively low vote share polling 'snapshots' for the Conservatives were incompatible, historically, with the relatively high polling numbers for Conservative 'economic competence' and 'prime ministerial competence' ratings. No previous party had failed to win overall power with such good fundamentals. If the market was making this judgement against the reliability of the polls, it may explain the last few day divergence between the betting line predictions and the expert forecasts (see fig 3 below) - although a differential was in fact opening up long before the last few days of the campaign. This would be a rational or economic explanation for the divergence, as opposed to the common charge used against betting market accuracy of right-leaning bias. Punters tend to be right-leaning, particularly the city based clientele of Sporting Index, and they like backing their favoured team, the Conservatives. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: x-large;"><strong>Original article, Thursday 7th May (describing the performance of experts and betting markets in predicting the election):</strong></span><br />
<strong><span style="font-size: large;"></span></strong><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: red; line-height: 115%;"></span></span> </div>
<span style="color: red;"><span style="font-size: large;">
<span style="color: black;">
<strong><span style="font-family: Arial;">Prediction matters</span></strong></span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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</v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Getting political prediction right, counts. From influencing capital markets to cutting through the bluster of political bandwagons, decent forecasts are also central to political strategy, like when to adopt riskier vote-winning plans or shore-up core support with basic messages. Perhaps most importantly, voters must also judge correctly how well parties are faring if they are
to vote tactically.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As Stephen Fisher
of Oxford University has pointed out, in the ultra-competitive contest of GE2015, new
types of tactical behaviour are emerging called </span><a href="http://electionsetc.com/2015/05/05/coalition-directed-voting-comes-to-britain/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">‘coalition-directed
voting’</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">. An example of this are Labour voters supporting the Conservatives in the short term, against a feared
SNP bid for a coalition with Labour, so long as Labour aren’t doing sufficiently well to get an overall
majority themselves (in which case the SNP would be less of a threat). Where though, should
these voters turn for a reliable prediction of the result to inform such tactics? Are the betting lines or the expert academic models best? Is there an alternative source of crowd wisdom beyond the potentially biased judgements of academics and betting crowds?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">From late 2014, I began noting down the daily forecasts made by three separate groups. Firstly a collection of academic 'expert' judgements,
secondly the forecasts of groups of ‘punters’ reflected in betting
markets, and finally, a more random sample of the mass public predicting their own local constituency results. Analysing this basic data, I ask now which group has been leading or following the
other?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The results show that academics
have done well in leading insights on the high likelihood of an SNP landslide
in Scotland and also a hung parliament outcome, should these outcomes materialise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>However the experts and the public still diverge on the relative
performance of Labour versus the Conservatives. Because of this, there are going to be very public winners and losers when the actual results become
known from tomorrow.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In summary, if the
Conservatives beat expectations and get in excess of 290 seats (and Ukip get
more than two or three seats), then it will be a vindication for the betting
market and mass-public crowd.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If Labour
does well, say more than 275 seats, the academic crowd will be closer to the actual
result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Either way, we must remember this is only one
skirmish between each crowd – just one roll of the dice. One side will have won
a battle and not the war, although it may feel worse for the losers tomorrow
morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The debate will rage on about
which crowd is the wisest. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Experts v The Public<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Before the final definitive verdict tomorrow, your instinctive
preference for either the expert or the mass public view will probably depend on a
hunch rooted in one of two alternative views of human knowledge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For millennia man has debated whether the
best guide to the world around us is the knowledge or reason of the few (a
Platonic tradition), or the practical experiences of many (an Aristotelian
tradition).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Suffice to say here, some
forecasters believe future voting behaviour is a highly technical matter, which
is best understood by a few experts, capable of weighing up the validity of key
theories and managing masses of data to refute or corroborate them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The mass public wanders
ignorantly, befuddled, helpless, deaf and dumb, without discernment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you believe this elitism, then you probably follow
the academic crowd for now, until they are proved right or wrong by the
results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alternatively, you may feel
sceptical that a collection of academics, or punters, can be sufficiently diverse
and independent in forming their opinions, and are more prone to either behave
in a partisan or ‘herd-like’ manner. In this case you are a pluralist or a 'liberal' in its truest meaning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You
may also feel that voting behaviour is too complicated and delicate a matter,
driven by a mass of local-level (constituency) information that is beyond the
comprehension of a bunch of academics and their whirring models, or even a
crowd of incentivised bettors. If you take the argument this far, you are probably an economic liberal like Margaret Thatcher's favourite economist / philosopher, F.A. Hayek. There is certainly a strong element of Hayekian epistemology (theory of knowledge) in why betting markets are superior to the cleverest individuals at prediction: the environment of the voting decision is like a vast information storage system, which can't be fathomed by any single individual, like the mass of supply and demand cues of an economic market cannot be understood by one 'planner'.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">In this
case, somewhat bravely, you could turn to the crowd in its purest form, trusting
mass publics across every constituency to tell you, collectively, who they think will be their
next MP. This is perhaps the ultimate compilation of localised crowd-sourced intelligence in a British election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the first time in electoral studies, online
polling technology is revealing new insights into these predictive views of the mass public,
allowing us to ask more of them, more regularly and more cheaply. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Much has been made about the increased volume
of polling on how people intend to vote because of this online polling
revolution.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the last six months of
2009 there were just 103 vote intention polls.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the last six months of 2014 there were 283.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the vote intention question is mainly
fodder for the academic models and betting calculators, as is the welcome addition
of Lord Ashcroft’s constituency polling by telephone, recognising the need to
find local patterns in voting swings in a post-UNS (uniform national swing) multi-party election world.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> By contrast, t</span>he true ‘crowd wisdom’ question is not how
people will vote, but who do they think will win?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To do this on a constituency-by-constituency
basis, to mine a new mass of localised knowledge, requires vast national
surveys calling on enormous online panels. Even YouGov’s 600,000 strong UK panel is
not really big enough for the job, yet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This type of
crowd forecasting will improve with time, as we are able to ask sufficient volumes of people in
each individual constituency for their predictions. The key assumption is Condorecet’s Jury Theorem which states that if
group members have a greater than fifty per cent chance of making the correct
decision (they have at least sone wisdom), then the probability of a correct majority vote will increase rapidly
towards unity as the group size increases to infinity (Condorcet, 1785, </span><a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/citizens-forecast-a-hung-parliament-with-the-conservatives-as-the-largest-party/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Murr,
2015</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">). So if the crowd are 50.001 per cent right then that is good enough. The prediction will only get better as more people are asked the question. Unfortunately, the same logic works in reverse. If the crowd are 49.999 per cent right, the crowd will get more reliably wrong as members are added.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Despite a rather small sample for the job, this idea got an
early run out at this election thanks to the fascinating work of Rookie political scientist Andreas Murr
of Oxford, who drew on an internet survey of 17,000 voters conducted by YouGov
in February of this year (that is an average of just 25 members of the public
in each constituency).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If it does well,
then the future of predicting elections could be about to change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We may become attached to asking vast online
panels what they think will happen, harnessing new seems of local information in vital local areas previously passed over previously by group of
experts.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Online panel growth is the
disruptive technology that may be changing not only how future political events are forecast, but sporting ones too. Swap 'parliamentary seats' for 'Division 2 season points' and the same benefits from exercising crowd wisdom apply. The wisdom of crowds idea, made applicable because of the internet and growing online panels, dangles valuable new insights for bookmakers and the betting public alike. And the online panel companies understand this. They consider their panels not just a source of predictive information, but also the basis of new social communities of predictive activity, a sort of gambler's Facebook. Rather than asking panellists boring survey questions to obtain obscure football league information and aggregated wisdom, why not offer them the chance to reveal their knowledge by playing games at the same time, such as Fantasy Football Manager? The growth of online poker showed how gaming communities spring up quickly between ego driven poker players. Predictive sporting tourneys may be next. YouGov are the most advanced British online panel company to attempt the 'gamification' of their panel experience, in a bid to morph from market research firm to social media giant. It faces stiff competition from the bigger American firms such as Research Now, who now have over six million global panel members. It remains to be seen whether British YouGov have the capacity to out innovate their American competition to grab the bigger prize. I shall return to the constituency level crowd wisdom model at the end of this article.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Expert Academics<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Back to March of this year, just over two months before the election poll.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The scene is a large purpose-built lecture room at the
London School of Economics. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like a sugar
addict in a sweet-shop, I was enjoying my favourite day in academia since
leaving the bookmaking industry in 2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The subject of the scholarly inquiry was prediction, but the personnel
involved were far removed from shift-race-goers or grubby betting shop
types.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Sixty of the world’s finest political scientists
specialising in voting behaviour and opinion polling were having their
traditional pre-election day get together.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Here were the brightest collection of individuals I’d seen
assembled under one roof. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And they were
staking their hard won reputations, not money.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Many had flown in from around the world to review a dozen different seat
forecast models predicting the UK General Election, the blue-ribbon political horse-race
of the global elections calendar.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
winning model would be the one that contained least ‘total seat error’ between
predicted seat totals for each of the parties and the actual result on May 7<sup>th</sup>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">This year the contest had the makings of a
classic. Heightened interest among the betting public was making it the biggest
non-sporting betting event of all time, with turnover up three-fold on 2010,
according to Ladbrokes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The British
contest, already tight, had become even more of a challenge, spiced by the
presence of two live dark horses in the field with little previous form: the
SNP and Ukip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The extent to which these
unknown variables could weigh heavily on the voting result was causing much
debate and uncertainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Many academics who had
based their careers on the reliability of the grand old model of UNS (Uniform National Swing) were
feeling sombre.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There was a deep concern
that the British first-past-the-post system might not be able to cope with the
new multi-party dynamics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These concerns
it was felt, were made more serious by the central implication of the new Fixed
Term Parliament Act, designed to facilitate the last coalition government,
which makes an emergency ‘ad hoc’ election now more difficult to call.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Therefore the academics worried.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The British polity could be condemned to five
years of unstable and ineffective government based around vote-by-vote deals,
uneasy coalitions or delicate ‘confidence and supply’ arrangements.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">The academics faced a quandary.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As top forecasters, they recognised the deep
uncertainty of the General Election result, but also knew that in the current
academic era, there was public demand for a confident forecast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Deep down, they felt there were no simple
answers, no one idea that explained it all.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>In the terminology of expert political judgement (</span><a href="http://press.princeton.edu/titles/7959.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Tetlock, 2005</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">), those in
the room were ‘foxes’ not ‘hedgehogs’, scrappy creatures who believe in a
complicated synthesis of many little ideas and multiple approaches towards
solving a problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The best electoral
forecasters in the world had not gained their reputations through one knock-out
punch, but hard research and gradual learning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But now journalistic simplicity was required of them, whilst maintaining
their honesty. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Their industry was
booming and gold was on offer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
political science of predicting elections was in rude health, popularised by
Nate Silver’s best-selling book ‘The Signal and the Noise’ (2012).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And in an era where academics are demanded to
make an impact on wider society to secure research funding, a premium is placed
on being ‘outward-facing’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Torn
therefore, by intellectual modesty and humility on the one hand, and public
demand for simple answers on the other, some stars of the field are emerging
within British political science who can do both.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Among those presenting models was Rob Ford,
well known for his book ‘Revolt on the Right’ on the rise of Ukip, co-authored
with Matthew Goodwin which won the Political Book of the Year in 2015.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(Matthew is writing an eagerly awaited update
book on Ukip, for which I am a researcher).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Also demonstrating his model was Chris Hanretty from the UEA and his
team (Benjamin Lauderdale, Nick Vivyan and Jack Blumenau), whose
electionforecast.co.uk is now an integral part of the BBC’s Newsnight coverage,
and who also provides the UK election model for Nate Silver’s booming </span><a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/uk-election-2015/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">FiveThirtyEight US media
business</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Presiding over the event
were the eminent John Curtice and Simon Hix, with guest of honour, Sir David
Butler, inventor of the Swingometer and a founding father of psephology, now
90.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, here was the ‘expert
crowd’ of GE2015 in one room.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If good
judgement on the General Election is related to high IQ and years of learning,
this was the place to find it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Fig. 1 ‘The Expert Crowd’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The young
rising stars of British political science (in background, Chris Hanretty, Rob
Ford and Stephen Fisher) are grilled about their General Election predictive
models by older established names, John Curtice, Sir David Butler (90), Simon
Hix (standing) and Vernon Bogdanor – Foreground<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The twelve predictions are listed in table 1 below, along
with the remarkably similar results of an ‘expert survey’ of 465 Political Studies
Association academics, 45 journalists and 27 pollsters.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Of the forecasting conference predictions,
all predict a ‘hung parliament’, half with the Conservatives and half with
Labour holding the most seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
average seat prediction shows Labour winning just four seats more than the
Conservatives (283 versus 279).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ukip are
predicted to win three seats, the SNP forty-one and the Liberal Democrats
twenty-one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would be a
disappointing result for the Conservatives, with the party falling short of
being able to cobble together a minority government.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Assessed against the final</span> polling it looks a fair
collective judgement, although it may prove to be slightly short of the SNP and Conservative seats and long
of Labour.<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span><br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Table 1. ‘Expert Crowd’ predictions 2015 Forecasting Conference, LSE, 27<sup>th</sup>
March 2015<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></b></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"> </span></o:p></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">For all the wisdom of these academics, what possible reasons
may exist to doubt their aggregated judgement as a ‘crowd’?<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">I think there are two possible doubts about the claim made
by the researchers of the Political Studies Association expert survey (Chris Hanretty and Will
Jennings) that averaging academic forecasts engenders ‘wisdom of crowds’
benefits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first problem is the
<em>diversity</em> and <em>independence</em> of the group.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Both these factors are fundamental assumptions of </span><a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Wisdom-Crowds-Many-Smarter/dp/0349116059"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">James
Surowieki’s theory</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">, discussed in an excellent early podcast (2004) from the
man </span><a href="http://thedianerehmshow.org/audio/#/shows/2004-07-07/james-surowiecki-wisdom-crowds-doubleday/@00:00"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">here</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">,
yet the congregation at the LSE in March and the Expert survey of PSA members
looks little more than unrepresentative ‘expert panels’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, the models and the judgements of
both may be drawing on insufficiently narrow sources of information,
concentrating heavily on vote intention opinion polling, compared to the
information resources utilised by the mass of the general public up and down
every constituency in the land.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The fear
exists that the expert models sink or swim with the polling, however well
aggregated and weighted, along with some adjustments for historical behaviour
such as a late Conservative rally or ‘reversion to mean’ (voters tend to fall
back on what they did before) which turns ‘snapshots’ of polling into
predictions of future results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Worse, a
certain ‘group-think’ or ‘herd mentality’ may be in-play, making the academic
crowd not independent of each other.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
particular, for the members of the Political Studies Association, their high
level of political knowledge may be of each other’s well publicised work,
continually circulated to each other, particularly the models of the Polling
Observatory, Elections Etc, and Electionforecast.co.uk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Yes they have produced different forecasts,
but to what extent are these differences the result of widely sourced data, or
merely subjective adjustments to their working parts, or their assumptions?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Voting behaviour scholars from America,
particularly Michael Lewis-Beck, made this objection to the British models at
the LSE conference.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He felt there were
just too many ‘moving parts’, too many formulas and assumptions in the models
for the results to reflect the data rather than inevitably the forecasters subjective viewpoints.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And here we come to the second problem.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Potential bias inherent within the academic
community.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Academics have a habit (often irritating to the public) of
insulating themselves from the charge of bias by claiming superior knowledge,
in particular command of their own data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
More than often it is justified, but it is a problem when it</span> this becomes almost cultural, to the extent that
new information from other sources can be dismissed without proper
consideration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The charge here is of a
certain intellectual arrogance or hauteur, and it's not hard to find among
political scientists, however ‘fox-like’ they are when approaching their own
data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Take for example a letter that was
sent among an elite sub-group of the PSA members that specialise specifically
in voting behaviour and elections (EPOP), about the relative results of their
own grouped opinions in the recent PSA survey.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Somewhat contemptuously, it reminded the rest of the group that:</span></span></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span></i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Colleagues will have
noticed the PSA’s survey of election experts last week… (We) have separated out
the predictions from those who actually know things about elections (ie, us)
from those who don’t (everybody else).</span></span></i></blockquote>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><o:p></o:p></span></i><br /></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Whilst this may have been ‘tongue-in-cheek’,
there is little hiding the considerable doubt held by academics about the quality of public judgement more generally, a theme running through voting behaviour work dating back to the seminal 'American Voter' studies of the 1960s. These painted a picture of the public as intellectually disorganised, affective in their motivations when not largely uninterested and uninformed about representative government (Campbell et al, 1960; Converse, 1964). Why should this group be any better at predicting politics than they are practicing it, as measured by the public forecasts implied in
betting market prices. </span></span>Here is not the place for a debate about whether
betting prices benefit as ‘opinion backed by money’ or mislead with a
republican / conservative confirmation bias, simply to show for now the
arbitrage or mismatch of estimates between some of the academic models and the
public markets.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Most startling was the
initial forecast of the Polling Observatory, which opened on the 16<sup>th</sup>
March forecasting 265 Tory seats whilst the leading city spread betting firm,
Sporting Index, was forecasting 282.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
is hard to say whether there is partisan bias in the markets or the academic
forecasts from this alone, but the arbitrage between the two throws some caution on both, a
dispute which will only be resolved by comparisons of a long run of forecasts
with results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For now, whilst the
academics can charge the markets with a pro-tory bias, the bookmakers can
equally claim that the academics do not represent national political opinion
either, as this self-selecting survey, conducted by the Times Higher Education
Supplement this April </span><a href="http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/news/almost-half-of-sector-to-back-labour-the-election-poll-suggests/2019944.article"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">showed</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just four out of 1,019 respondents said
they supported Ukip, eleven per cent Conservative and forty-six per cent
Labour. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Without knowing the final result as yet, how can we resolve
who has performed better over the course of the election campaign, and
therefore shed light on who is less prone to bias or wiser to information: the
betting market crowd or the academics?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One method is to look at which side has converged in its predictions on
the other (indicating that it is following), or whether one side has diverged
in its opinions (indicating it is opposing the other), or whether they have
mutually converged on each other in their estimations as the campaign has
progressed (indicating increasing agreement).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><strong>Con v Lab</strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Firstly, let’s look at the question of bias within betting
markets, favouring the right because punters tend to be conservative leaning,
and also within academic crowds, because public sector university workers tend
to be much more left-wing than average.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
fact, as figure 2 shows, there is actually very little disagreement between the
average of the three academic models predicting Conservative seats, and the
betting market from city spread firm,
Sporting Index.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Figure 2<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-no-proof: yes;"><!--[endif]--><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><o:p></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The betting market average line for the last 50 days of the
campaign is just 4.4 seats higher than the average for the academic lines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The model from Stephen Fisher has indeed been
more consistently bullish about Conservative chances (averaging 290.8 seats)
than the Sporting Index market, averaging 285.5 seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However the academic average is lowered by
the bearish forecast from the Polling Observatory, averaging just 269.5 seats
for the Tories over the last part of the campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite drawing on pretty much the same
polling evidence, a range of over twenty seats between the bottom academic
forecast of Tory seats and the top, must leave the public wondering who to
believe?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The charge that a set of
subjective assumptions is ultimately driving these models, which are over-laden
with ‘moving parts’, has added weight.<o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">At this stage, I am dropping the top and bottom forecasts to
concentrate on the middle forecast of Hanretty, Lauderdale and Vivyan
(electionforecast.co.uk) in comparison with the betting lines from Sporting
Index, as it seems closest to the average of the academic prediction, and
therefore fairly representative. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Figure
3 shows the daily over-time trends in both lines since 1<sup>st</sup> December
2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How have the two predictions
related to each other over the course of the long campaign?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly, both lines are clearly close to each
other in forecasting Conservative seats, and it is not immediately noticeable
that there is much difference in the predictions prior to mid-March.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the first part of the date range between 1st December and 15<sup>th</sup>
March, the daily average for each was between 282.4 (academic) and 282.2
(betting).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is only in the run-up to
polling day from the 16<sup>th</sup> March that the lines start to diverge, as
the added volume of money for the Conservatives pushes the betting line above
the academic forecast line, ending nine seats higher on polling day at 290 seats
versus 281 seats from electionforecast.co.uk.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Here there is genuine disagreement between the betting crowd and the
expert crowd. Was the market coming to distrust the static polling lines?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bettors think that the
polling, by itself, underestimates the Conservative seat total by around 14
seats (using YouGov’s ‘Nowcast’ for 6<sup>th</sup> May of 276 Conservative
seats which translates their polling numbers into seats on that day). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The academic line, driven largely by polling,
also overestimates the final Tory seat tally compared to the YouGov 'Nowcast' estimate, because
it also expects a last minute rally for the party.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But compared to the YouGov number, this is only
five more Conservative seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a tight
contest, who is right in this dispute could be crucial, and we will only know
tomorrow morning.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Figure 3<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><strong>SNP</strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">The battle between the betting crowd and the expert crowd is
multi-faceted at this election, it does not just depend on who gets the balance
between Conservative and Labour seats right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One of the major stories of the campaign has been the rise of the
SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here the picture paints expert
wisdom in a favourable light to betting market wisdom, because the forecast of
electionforecast.co.uk was spectacularly efficient in estimating early – way
before the betting markets – a deluge of extra seats for the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Figure 4 shows how the betting market line of
Sporting Index SNP seats took a while to converge on the expert academic
line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This moment was one of the major
opportunities to make money in this campaign and shamelessly, I must admit to flagging it up
</span><a href="http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2015_01_01_archive.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">here</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">,
at the beginning of December, although I didn’t have a bet myself!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The betting public have been reluctant to
join the SNP bandwagon, and once again, this may be because punters (south of
the border at least) have been reluctant to support the Scottish Nationalists
for partisan reasons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is noticeable
that once again, in the dying days of this campaign, the Sporting Index betting
line has dipped below the academic line.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This shows there are plenty of SNP sellers about still, and the firm
Sporting Index, may be in the enviable position of cheering on SNP wins, whilst
shedding tears at tight Conservative victories tomorrow morning.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Figure 4<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question of whether there will be a hung parliament, has
also been central to this election campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>One of the psychological traits of the punter is an aversion to cheering
on draws.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bettors like excitement and
dramatic results, sometimes letting their hearts rule their head.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When I worked at either Sporting Index, Ladbrokes
and Betfair, a 0-0 score in football was usually the best result for the layers
(the bookies).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For this reason, ‘No
goal-scorer’ (includes own goals) is usually your best bet in any football match, without looking at
any form, because it is the most unpopular one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For the same reason, punters in this election have been keen on betting
on an overall majority, in particular a Tory one, on fixed odds lines and
spread lines.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would be a terrible
result for the fixed odds firms in particular.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because of this,
the line denoting the betting crowd’s prediction of a hung parliament has been
consistently lower than the electionforecast prediction, which now makes it a
100 per cent certainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Punters still
hold out for a 6 per cent chance of a Tory majority and it is only in the last few days that it has dropped below the 10 per cent mark, seemingly for good.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Figure 5 shows that betting wisdom, or lack
of it, has gradually converged on the consistent view of the experts (the black
line), that no party will win 326 seats required for a majority in the House of
Commons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As with the case of the SNP,
following expert wisdom on the question of a hung parliament would have been
lucrative, and there is still room to oppose a Tory majority for some cash.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"></span></o:p><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">Figure 5<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: large;"><strong>Ukip</strong></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Finally we turn to the question of Ukip, which has been the
subject of my own research during this election for Drs Matthew Goodwin and
Caitlin Milazzo’s forthcoming book.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Has expert
wisdom or public wisdom proved a more reliable guide here? (See figure 6).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a more complicated story. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The graph shows that both the expert predictions
of Ukip’s vote share (electionforecast in mauve and electionsetc in khaki) and
the recently established vote share market from Sporting Index in red, hold out
for an impressive Ukip performance of around 10-14 per cent of the vote, up
from 3.1 per cent in 2010.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
prediction may have declined slightly since the 1<sup>st</sup> December 2014
and in the last few days, but the estimated Ukip vote has hardly been
'squeezed' as some commentators have suggested.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The betting market prediction
for Ukip seats has however collapsed, from over ten at the start of December, to
less than 3.5 now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Both the academic
forecasts shown in the graph for Ukip seats (in light blue and black) had never
been higher than five and the electionforecast prediction never higher than
two.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So we might think that the market
has been unwise, and overly exuberant about the ability of Ukip to convert
seats into votes, the opposite of its attitude to SNP seats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One interesting psychological aside here is
the predisposition of Ukip voters to take risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This relationship is shown clearly in all
British Election Study surveys that have asked the question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In short, Ukip voters, like their leader are
punters through and through, and have enjoyed backing their candidates around
the country, seemingly against their realistic chances.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">However, this criticism of the Ukip betting crowd, draws
heavily on hindsight and ignores how the campaign has played out.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Farage has failed to spark a serious media
bandwagon, perhaps because the SNP took it (analysis of media citations of
party leader names over the course of the campaign, suggests this).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>When Sporting Index opened their market, I
discussed the matter with their market-maker (Aidan Nutbrown), and there was considerable
uncertainty about what Ukip could achieve, as well as recognition there would
always be buyers of Ukip out there.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ladbrokes even
had a market on the party gaining 100 seats or more.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The situation was too uncertain for the
betting market to apply a strict mathematical formula of votes to seats, like with
the academic models, because expectations existed at the time that they could break
through.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Further, there are strong
reasons that the electionforecast model was
not recognising local campaign effects which could play into the hands of
Ukip.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whilst a small and inexperienced
party at campaigning, it could at least target ten or more seats relatively
hard.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Difficult to assess micro level
factors were never really considered by the largely macro models of electionforecast,
and arguably still aren’t.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is still
quite possible that Ukip could win 3-4 seats, 3-4 times what electionforecast
have consistently predicted.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like the
Conservative / Labour seats battle, the Ukip question will only be resolved
tomorrow.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: xx-small; mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Figure 6.</span></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Conclusions<o:p></o:p></span></span></b><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The research above has looked at whether the ‘expert crowd’
or the ‘betting crowd’ has performed better as a guide to the likely election
outcome.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>On certain questions, requiring a high level of quite technical political knowledge, notably SNP seats and
whether there will be a hung parliament, the experts have led the way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The betting public have gradually come into
line with what the experts have been saying, pretty much all along.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, looking at the Labour-Conservative
contest, and whether the betting crowd has displayed a right-wing bias or the
experts a left-wing one, it is perhaps still too early to say.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We will have to wait for the result to assess the bullish betting market forecast about Conservative seats, relative to the expert academic forecast.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One notable feature of the academic models at
least, as opposed to the survey of 500 'trade association' members, is the
remarkable variance in their forecasts. Taken individually, they leave the
public and potential tactical voters none the wiser as to what will happen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The average however is close to the view of
the betting markets (just 4.5 seats lower), so the bias theory in either
direction may be overstated.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Forecasters
are as keen as the betting public to get this election right.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Lastly, let’s give final consideration to the mass public as
a whole - the voters who will decide this election.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although regularly reviled for their lack of
wisdom and herd-like behaviour ever since the damning 19th Century crowd studies of </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Crowd-Study-Popular-Mind/dp/0486419568" target="_blank">Gustave Le Bon</a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">, the mass public are the largest group and inherently diverse and more independent when compared to academics or bettors. However, their view, with the exception of endless anecdotal TV and radio interviews particularly by the BBC, has often been drowned out in this election by elite opinion echoing through social media channels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bookmakers too have been guilty of not giving voice to their punter’s views, instead talking about their own opinions, as if the views of their traders and PR men matter more than their customers. Good bookmakers, very rarely ignore the betting behaviour of their customers. Ladbrokes in particular, via its otherwise excellent spokesman Matthew Shaddick, has been all to keen to rubbish the crowd wisdom behind political betting, also a cardinal sin in bookmaking PR. For example, on 27th March he said that betting markets are 'not a particularly good predictor of the results'. If a Ladbrokes spokesman is not capable of standing behind the inherent forecasting value of his own markets, who is?</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The addition of a massive free-play public prediction tournament (100,000 players plus), rather like the hugely successful SkyBet Saturday Super Six game on football, conducted online, and yielding crowd sourced seat forecasts, would have added greatly to our understanding of mass public crowd wisdom on the election. Demonstrating a trust in public judgement that has been sadly lacking during the election,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> It could have been run by the media, bookmakers or both</span>, pitching the wisdom of the widest possible crowd against expert opinion, extending the range of participants beyond the narrower confines of those who place real money bets on politics and their associated biases.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The mass public have also been tapped for their insights via focus grouping, as featured in Lord Ashcroft's regular polling reports. Sometimes however it feels this element of Ashcroft research is included to carry a joke or two about politicians or to add colour next to the dry survey reports, rather than uncover some serious insight on mass crowd wisdom. There have also been two monthly quantitative surveys by other polling companies, which include items looking at general election public prediction, one by TNS and the other by ICM for the Daily Telegraph / Guardian. The most recent was by ICM for the Guardian <a href="http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_final_prelim.pdf" target="_blank">yesterday</a> (6 May). Whilst the vote intention question showed support evenly divided between Labour and Conservatives on 35 per cent each, the prediction question suggested a three point victory margin for the Conservatives on 35 per cent versus Labour on 32 per cent. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The wisdom polling asks the respondent to predict the next government or Prime Minster. </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The problem with national 'wisdom' polling, as with the mechanism of Uniform National Swing that translates vote shares into seat shares, is it may obscure critical patterns in local support at the constituency level that have developed as our two party system has fragmented. To garner information from the local publics on this key local information, more promising are 'local MP' questions, with the hope of tapping information held by the public about their own constituency campaigns, such as the amount of activity being expended by the candidates and other rumours and political gossip, currently locked away in local networks. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">At this level, polling companies are becoming promising
conduits for the expression of mass-crowd wisdom, via
their burgeoning online panels.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>These are growing at such a rate, it is not difficult to envisage that in
2020 we will be able to properly test sufficient sample sizes of voters in every
constituency to measure their own understanding of their own local results.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is a hugely exciting development.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For now, hardly noticed for his presentation
beyond the walls of the LSE conference, we have the research of </span><a href="http://www.politics.ox.ac.uk/academic-faculty/andreas-murr.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">Andreas
Murr</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">, and his pioneering 2015 constituency crowd wisdom model. Whilst calling on only 25 voters per constituency this time around (in February), his analysis generated an estimate
of 292 Conservative seats. This prediction is remarkable for its closeness to the current betting market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> What is more, w</span>ith ever growing online
panels facilitating larger surveys at future elections, the accuracy of
this type of crowd sourcing can only increase.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>If the total of Tory seats tomorrow morning hits the 292 total (or more), then the purest and most localised form of crowd wisdom will have scored an early and notable success, not least for being higher on Conservative seats than eleven of the twelve academic models. This may be at the start of a revolution in how we forecast not just elections but referendums and non-political events too. In the age of the Internet and massive online opinion poll panels, we can start t<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">rusting the public more than the experts.</span></span></span><br />
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Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comGreater London, UK51.500091672354813 -0.1281559467315673851.183978672354812 -0.77360294673156738 51.816204672354814 0.51729105326843261tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-9108431275308349452015-04-13T08:00:00.001+01:002021-12-30T16:37:12.887+00:00Short summary of PhD, April 2015.<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">How the British public changes its support for membership of the European Union.<br /><br /><br />This thesis examines over time trends in the public’s support for EU membership. Specifically, it investigates the effects of two major political events on public attitudes towards the EU. The first is the financial crisis of 2007 and its aftermath. The second is the highest level of immigration to Britain since records began, following the expansion of the EU in 2004 to include seven former 'eastern bloc' countries.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The 20th Century project of European integration, in both its initial design and subsequent management, has been the preserve of political elites. Unsurprisingly therefore, most academic research has been conducted on elite-level behaviour and attitudes. Whilst the volume of work on the mass public's relationship with integration has increased, at the same time voters have been recoiling from the European project across Europe, regularly voting against it at country-based referendums. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">This has often been a source of frustration to European elites, and EU supporting academics too, who have often shown little respect for public opinion on the EU. In perhaps the best known and most widely read history of Britain's relationship with integration, top of most undergraduate reading lists, the late Hugo Young (1998) wrote that public attitudes were always 'changeable, ignorant and half-hearted', rarely achieving 'what pollsters call salience' (1998: 287). As a matter of study, 'if it revealed a consistent pattern', it was 'that the people tended to go wherever they were led by the political class' (508). In short, existing theories dispute whether voters have the capacity to respond to new information on the EU in a coherent manner at all, and if this is the case, locating meaningful patterns in public opinion is likely to be a frustrating task. When patterns or structure in public opinion has been located, it has generated conflicting expectations in public behaviour (Boomgarden et al, 2011). All in all, the mechanisms by which the public changes its support for EU membership remain unclear. The unique contribution of this thesis is to set out a single consistent rationale for why and when voters choose to learn from new information when revising EU attitudes, and when they do not, based upon a Bayesian process of adaption.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The ideas of English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes (1701-1761) have previously found application in more common areas of voting behaviour study, particularly how voters identify to political parties (party ID). In this thesis, Bayes' logic is now applied for the first time to understand public attitudes towards the EU. The central Bayesian assumption is that for EU support, like party ID, voters make the same probabilistic calculation of the importance of new experiences set against their own existing prior beliefs. They choose whether to update these prior beliefs as a ‘running-tally’ of new information and experiences, but only when they consider the new information sufficiently valid to update their old preferences (Fiorina, 1981). This approach, grounded in assumptions of voter rationality rather than psychology, provides a powerful framework for understanding the notable changes in preference for the EU - both for and against - that have occurred in Britain during the last ten years, cutting-through existing theories that lack any 'a priori' logic for why voters, by themselves, can adapt their preferences.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">By contrast to the economic approach of my thesis, existing theories of public opinion towards the EU have tended to follow a more psychological tradition in voter behaviour studies. At other times, theories have diverged from the mainstream body of voting behaviour literature all together, portraying voter behaviour on EU matters as an exceptional concern compared to behaviour towards parties and at domestic election time. Students of 'European Studies' are taught of the complexity and remoteness of supra-national government, new cultural values of 'Europeanisation', its unique institutional structures and the way it engenders for the voter questions of national identity, cutting across the main left-right field of political contestation that shapes domestic politics. This 'sui generis' quality to European political affairs, has become a favourite justification for the independence of the field of European Studies from political science. It is one of its own, with its unique characteristics. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">All too often however as a result, the uniqueness of EU opinion theory has become a self-fulfilling prophecy in research, and useful core assumptions used to ground voter behaviour theories have become lost. In particular, work on attitudes towards the EU has become complicated with a thick under-brush of post hoc justifications for two unrelated and potentially conflicting attitude dimensions structuring the voter decision: economics and identity. Crucially, there is no supporting theory as to how the voter, himself, connects the two to make rounded and evolving evaluations. Instead, we are left with 'non-rational' models of behaviour that claim change is the result of forces external of the voter, somehow mobilising at different times the unrelated (“soft-economic" and “hard-identity”) dimensions in his attitudes (Hooghe and Marks, 2009). Emotional forces of nationalism especially, as well as domestic party competition involving populist parties, are used to explain voter behaviour (Taggart, 1998). Following this traditional academic narrative on voter support for the EU, politicians of the highest level have perpetuated the gloomy assessment of the voters' capability to make sense of Europe. Most recently for example, Tony Blair claimed during the 2015 General Election campaign that British voters cannot be trusted to make ‘sensible choice’ on the EU (Telegraph, 07/04/15).</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">This thesis rejects this pessimistic view of British voters and the Europe issue. Using evidence from 2007-2009 IntUne surveys, it shows that the attitudes of these voters towards EU membership are one-dimensional, and bi-dimensionality in the structure of attitudes is an artefact of the measurements tools not the empirical data itself. The voter can balance “soft” economic appraisals with “hard” identity based ones, and the later may embrace nationalist and populist feelings. But the preferences that are formed best reflect a singular understanding of his interests. The voter is not as irrational as the bi-dimensional model insists.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The PhD also reviews the history of the debate between those for and against Britain’s membership of the EU from 1970, and how the issue has been framed within the traditional party political system and more recently by insurgent movements: the Referendum Party and Ukip. Evidence from a series of 144 British Election Study monthly surveys, conducted between 2004 and 2015, shows the non-rational approach is poorer at explaining over time change within the historical development of the issue, than the new Bayesian model. Public opinion has evolved in a predictable way to changing information generated by the specific political context. Most recently, record immigration to Britain from the EU, the financial crisis both at home and in the Eurozone, and subsequent economic recovery have become important determinants of EU support. This runs contrary to the unsatisfactory and counterfactual conclusion of the main existing work published on the financial crisis and EU support, that the Eurozone's difficulties did not 'substantially bring back in economic factors as an important source of Euroscepticism' (Serrachio et al, 2013:51). </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">The results of the research reported in this thesis shed favourable light on the capacity of voters to respond to new information, a conclusion that belies the prevailing view of British voters as uninterested and uniformed on the EU membership question. They are also increasingly relevant to the decision as to whether an EU referendum should be called. Further, the conclusions also provide economic and political scenarios under which public opinion may change in the future, developing new insights on the likely outcome of such a referendum. Such a referendum would shape not just the future of Britain's relationship with Europe, but also the nature of domestic politics in Britain.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-58274082456464387932015-02-11T11:29:00.000+00:002015-07-18T11:11:56.968+01:00Who's best at predicting the 2015 General Election? 'The academic experts' or 'the public'?<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">In the chart below, see how the public betting market on a 'hung parliament' seems to be converging on the top academic forecasters' predictions from Electionforecast.co.uk. These academics have consistently predicted more chance of a hung parliament than the public (89% probability compared to 79% as of yesterday), and the public now seem to be coming into line. Are the 'expert academics' winning this tug-of-war of prediction over 'Joe Public'? </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivy2HxlAMOtR0Se878JvqoOqwzIZ_6UTdHqIIL_Sce9SCj97SREUStgAg1p5GyIR9e8kPeHKyDETaT_nMBr9US_OpksJ5_mcjuE6W60Sflsd7MCYP16fQ2b-6ftt6zmOf4JPRIXxhuZwk0/s1600/hung_parliament.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivy2HxlAMOtR0Se878JvqoOqwzIZ_6UTdHqIIL_Sce9SCj97SREUStgAg1p5GyIR9e8kPeHKyDETaT_nMBr9US_OpksJ5_mcjuE6W60Sflsd7MCYP16fQ2b-6ftt6zmOf4JPRIXxhuZwk0/s1600/hung_parliament.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: black;">The conflict between academic prediction and public prediction is now the key theme of this blog. The next article will discuss how different parts of the betting industry are claiming to represent the public forecast, and which companies can be most trusted to do so: particularly spread firms like Sporting Index or Spreadex, fixed odds firms like Ladbrokes, or the leading betting exchange, Betfair. Over 20 years, I've worked for all three types of betting companies in the UK. Now I'm looking at the 2015 General Election as an academic researcher, for a team led by Dr Matthew Goodwin. </span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black;">The disparity between expert and public predictions, hinges on the public faith in a Tory revival between now and the 7th May, as Ed Miliband's unproven Prime Ministerial leadership credentials are tested, along with Labour competency on key issues such as the economy. However, the polling fortunes of the Conservatives are still not improving fast enough, if at all, to deliver them an overall majority of 326 seats. At the same time, both Conservative and Labour prospects of an overall majority have been badly dented by the rise of UKIP and the SNP, whose support is proving more difficult to erode than the main parties expected.</span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">On Betfair, punters have consistently given a 15%+ chance to a Tory overall majority, whereas Electionforecast have never ascribed more than a 5% chance to that outcome.</span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">Traditionally, past results have shown a revival in the incumbent government's polling fortunes in the final months and weeks of the campaign, and a tendency for voters to 'revert to the mean' (or do what they did before). Neither of these two trends are reflected in snapshot polling as published daily in the media. Whilst both are factored into the top expert academic models and public prediction markets, they are more so by the public, who are invariably more bullish about Conservative chances across all markets. </span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">Have 'the experts' sufficiently accounted for a Tory revival with their model? Are the expert academic models unduly biased towards Labour, or 'the public markets' towards the Conservatives? If the academics backed their own model with their own cash, they would still be betting on a hung parliament on Betfair.com. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><em>Albert Tapper (<a href="https://twitter.com/mincer" target="_blank">@mincer</a>) is a former trader of political markets at the spread betting firm Sporting Index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He now works on a leading academic project analysing the 2015 General Election, led by Dr Matthew Goodwin (University of Nottingham).</em></span></div>
Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-17758684632435346772015-01-28T07:22:00.000+00:002015-05-21T18:05:23.205+01:00Minor party (SNP) for major gain<br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"><strong>Trust political predictions from academics
to make money from the bookies (<u>check the trading updates at bottom of blog</u>)</strong></span></i></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(Original blog from 7/12/14)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">The biggest change in voting intentions since the 2010
election is a collapse in overall support for three main political parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So called ‘Lib-Lab-Con’ support has leaked
away to the SNP and Ukip. Voters are sceptical that traditional parties can
handle key economic and immigration issues, they distrust the political
establishment, and Labour has been scotched north of the border by the
Independence Referendum.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In 2010, over
88% of UK voters supported the three main parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Today’s poll averages suggest just 71%
will.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some recovery of lost ground is
predicted by leading academic studies, but only rising to around 76% of overall
vote share.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">The first implication is a ‘hung parliament’ becomes much
more likely.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In other words, no party
will be able to win the 326 seats required for an overall majority.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Such an outcome is now a 91% chance according
to Dr Chris Henretty and colleagues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Back
in May 2010, bookies rated a hung parliament just a 36% chance (7/4).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Now the best price is 1/2 or a 67% probability (with
sportingbet.com).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It’s still a good
value bet.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;">The second implication is minor parties are going to receive
more votes, principally Ukip and the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Whilst Dr Henretty forecasts Ukip will get 11% of UK votes come next
May, their vote is spread far and wide, yielding just 3 seats to the Farage
team.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The big seat gainers are likely to
be the SNP.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although forecast to win just
3.7% of the UK vote, a panel of polling experts deliver a universally bullish
view on the SNP seat result: Baxter says 42; Bickerstaff, 48, Henretty 37 and Kellner,
45.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: large;">The spread betting firm, Sporting
Index, predicts just 20-22 SNP seats, and this market should be bought at
22.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If they achieve just 30 of the 59
Scottish seats you will make 8 times your stake profit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Alex Salmond’s recent decision to stand for
the seat vacated by the Lib Dem Malcolm Bruce adds another seat to the total.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He is a 1/7 shot to win with Ladbrokes (88%),
despite having to overturn a sizeable majority of 6,748.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But beware, if the SNP make no gains at all
from their current total of 6 seats, you will lose (22-6) or 16 times your
stake.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri; font-size: large;"></span></o:p><br />
<strong>TRADING UPDATE</strong> (03/01/2015).... SNP seat market currently trading at 29-31. This means if you had taken the advice above to buy at 22 seats on 7th December 2014 - you could now close your bet before a vote is cast, and secure a 7 times your stake profit. But remember, just like a share, spread betting prices on politics can go down as well as up. It is a particularly volatile form of betting. A less risky way of supporting SNP success is to bet that the SNP will be involved in any coalition, currently 13/2 with Hills. Another tip!<br />
<br />
<strong>TRADING UPDATE</strong> (21/01/2015).... Hills have cut the price of the SNP being involved in any coalition to 11/2 fro 13/2. SNP seats stand at 28-30 with Sporting Index. Betfair forecast of Hung Parliament now 73%. Steve Fisher forecast of Hung Parliament up to 79% from 61% at the beginning of January 2015. Newsnight / Henretty and Co. forecast for Hung Parliament, currently 90%. In short, all tips given above are currently returning profit. <br />
<br />
<strong>TRADING UPDATE</strong> (27/01/2015).... SNP seats mid-point forecast from Sporting Index now 32.5 (see graph below for how minor party markets have moved since they opened in November 2014).<br />
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<strong>TRADING UPDATE</strong> (04/02/2015).... Following Ashcroft Scottish constituency polling today - SNP seats now trading at 35-37 with Sporting Index. Those who took the advice of this site to buy SNP seats at 22 on 7th December 2014 can now close their bet for a 13 times their stake profit.<br />
<br />
William Hill now make 'any coalition involving the SNP' a 9/2 chance. Tipped here at 13/2 on 3/1/2015.<br />
<br />
<strong>LATEST TRADING UPDATE</strong> (05/03/2015)...<br />
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<span style="color: black;">A final tip (05/03/2015) - Purchase 'turnout' (i.e. Buy!) at 69.6% with Sporting Index - see these two articles:</span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">1) - <a href="http://theconversation.com/general-election-2015-prepare-for-a-high-turnout-survey-shows-38341">http://theconversation.com/general-election-2015-prepare-for-a-high-turnout-survey-shows-38341</a><a href="http://theconversation.com/general-election-2015-prepare-for-a-high-turnout-survey-shows-38341" target="_blank">http://theconversation.com/general-election-2015-prepare-for-a-high-turnout-survey-shows-38341</a> and </span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">2) - <a href="http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/history-guide-turnout-will-72.html/">http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/history-guide-turnout-will-72.html/</a> </span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">Think about:</span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<ul>
<li><span style="color: black;">Scotland's new zeal for political engagement</span></li>
<li><span style="color: black;">Ukip bringing back previous abstainers</span></li>
<li><span style="color: black;">The closeness of the race</span></li>
<li><span style="color: black;">A relatively large left / right policy differential between Miliband and Cameron</span></li>
<li>Sunny, warm conditions on polling day because of global warming...</li>
</ul>
<br />
All these factors may see turnout top 70%.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><em>Albert Tapper (<a href="https://twitter.com/mincer" target="_blank">@mincer</a>) is a former trader of political
markets at the spread betting firm Sporting Index.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He now works on a leading academic project
analysing the 2015 General Election, led by Dr Matthew Goodwin (University of Nottingham).</em></span></div>
Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-20090046888806151362014-09-17T16:40:00.001+01:002015-02-13T16:39:32.865+00:00Opinion polling on Scottish independence and EU membership referendums<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><strong><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pollsters have had a good
independence referendum. However, improved explanations about why voters
have swung to ‘Yes’ would be helpful.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
This blog discusses public attitude change</span> and how it might be better explained during a future EU referendum campaign.</span></strong></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Opinion pollsters have added insight and direction to an engaging campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Without the polls we would be unaware just how close the contest had become, lost in a fog on punditry. We would be subject to endless claims
and counter-claims from each lobby about who was really speaking for the people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polling keeps politicians honest, telling us
about the evolving credibility of each side’s message.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Interviews and focus groups with voters may
have their own value, but they leave us little wiser about the overall outcome
of the event.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> By contrast</span>, polling forecasts
have moved financial markets, changed campaign strategies, perhaps even caused
the No lobby to concede ‘Devo Max’ to the Scots.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given the increasing demand for polling
predictions, and the internet technologies that make the supply of polls cheaper,
we should expect increased polling activity if and when an EU Referendum is
called.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But the product itself can
be improved.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Whilst the Scottish experience has been great news for the
pollsters, it has also given them a couple of headaches.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly, it may go horribly wrong by Friday
morning.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Any celebrations of their
impact could prove premature if the actual result reveals an industry-wide
miscalculation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Given that the
independence ballot is a one-off, methods cannot be tweaked from previous experiences
to correct for <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">non-random</i> (systemic) error.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polling companies are therefore less
sure than usual about the accuracy of their surveys, particularly those using
online panels that rely upon heavy weighting to the initial samples.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The +/- 3 point ‘margin of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">random</i> sampling error’ may not tell the
full story of polling reliability.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>To
the pollsters’ credit, they have been both honest and humble about their
methods, taking every opportunity to raise their own self-doubts about their
figures. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An excellent discussion of
referendum polling accuracy can be heard on the BBC Radio 4 <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">More or Less</i> programme, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04gcfml" target="_blank">here</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, and the matter is
well reviewed in a blog by Stephen Fisher <a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/accurate-will-scottish-independence-referendum-polls/" target="_blank">here</a> </span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">and Anthony Wells <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8987" target="_blank">here</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">. </span>The general feeling seems to be that, if
anything, pollsters are more likely to be overestimating rather than
underestimating actual support for Yes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Even if they get it wrong this time, they deserve credit for sticking their
stake in the ground, being open about their methodology so it can be improved
upon in future. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Assuming the pollsters have told us correctly what will
happen, to be confirmed tomorrow, they are less impressive at telling us why it
is happening.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ultimately, what really
matters is change in public attitudes because it’s this change which could
split the United Kingdom apart.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Understanding why
support has changed requires a fuller range of survey indicators than the
simple and less reliable self-reports by voters of their own motivations – the questions
which are asked currently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The public
need to be probed in more detail about their national identities, partisanship,
economic evaluations and levels of political trust that are all key causal
variables.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Also such indicators need to
be analysed over time rather than as one off measurements, to pick up on trends.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Very little of this over time analysis has
been conducted on attitudes towards independence, in part through lack of data.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This may explain why it took a shock poll
from YouGov, showing Yes in front for the first time, to jolt public interest
and the No side into serious action, less than two weeks prior to the ballot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whilst traditional polling based on
individual snapshots of opinion <a href="http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/15/scotland-odds-shift-favour-no-victory/" target="_blank">did not see a close race coming</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">,
it was in fact predicted by <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/30/scottish-independence-vote-is-too-close-to-call/" target="_blank">researchers at Southampton University</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, using a rare (Bayesian) model of
vote intention based on trends and probabilities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Better partnerships between public facing
polling companies and academics versed in time-series methodologies could
improve the offering and its overall impact.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Understanding underlying trends in support is crucial to
framing the right campaigning strategies on both sides, shedding light on what
is working and what is not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Misunderstanding of why support has moved, could explain the poor
performance of the No campaign. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a
matter of weeks, opinion is now split close to 50/50 between Yes and No, having
been 60/40 against, a shift described by Anthony Wells of YouGov as a ‘real and
sustained large change’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Polls may be
overestimating or underestimating support at any one time, but on the question
of over time trends they are unequivocal.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>As the ‘poll of polls’ below shows, this growth in support for
independence has actually been going on for months rather than weeks:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<u><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/poll-polls-12-september-version-2/" target="_blank">Poll of Polls – 12/09/14 (ScotCen SocialResearch)</a></span></u></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span></o:p><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Pollsters and political scientists who specialise in public
opinion tend to be conservative about shifts in attitudes, particularly
short-term ones.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="http://blog.policy.manchester.ac.uk/featured/2014/09/polling-observatory-scottish-referendum-special-who-is-ahead-and-how-close-is-it/" target="_blank">As the Polling Observatory make clear</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, these can often be nothing more than
random noise, artefacts of measurement instruments rather than a significant
signal of attitude change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However,
long-term change as evident in Scotland cannot be so easily dismissed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The question of explaining attitude change is also a
theoretical one about how voters form their opinions, extending beyond
practical questions of data and polling methods. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem here is a lack of clear underlying
theory why individual voters have actually shifted their attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Within some quarters of academia, there is
outright denial that voters possess the capacity to change their views in
response to campaign information, at least in a meaningful way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Dr Rob Johns, <a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/settled-wills-the-psychology-behind-stable-referendum-polls-by-dr-rob-johns-university-of-essex/#." target="_blank">writing on the British Election Study website</a></span><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, warned in July – just before the No campaign
started to implode: ‘do not expect major shifts in opinion in the run-up to 18 September and that ‘the millions to be spent on persuading voters between now
and polling day will be largely wasted’.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What appears in hindsight as irresponsible advice, reflects
a gloomy appraisal of the voter. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather
than behaving in a largely economic (or ‘rational’) fashion by consciously
weighing up the costs and benefits of Yes and No, Johns argues voters develop
their preferences in an irrational or psychological manner, working against
change.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Preferences are deeply rooted in
‘early upbringing and personality’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
idea dates back to the seminal ‘Michigan School’ studies of the American Voter
in the 1950s, an account of electoral behaviour that stressed the role of
‘enduring partisan commitments in shaping attitudes’, formed early in life and
remaining stable through adulthood (Campbell et al. 1960).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Despite
concerted attempts in voter studies to revise the Michigan School approach with
more dynamic ‘rational choice’ type models, the older approach has never really
gone away. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Indeed national identity
attachment is ingrained in academic literature as the dominant variable for
explaining support for the EU (Hooghe and Marks, 2009).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The question is, when significant opinion
change does happen, as it did during the Eurozone crisis in respect of
attitudes towards EU membership, and now again during the Scottish Referendum
campaign, is the Michigan School theory up to the task of explaining it? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Under the Michigan model, when the voter is confronted by
new information, he is likely to become polarised in his existing opinions
because he assimilates news through the prism of his long-standing biases: ‘the
individual is more a rationaliser (of his existing prejudices) than a rational
decision maker’ (Lodge and Taber, 2013:26).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>For example, in the Scottish case, the voter who watched the televised
referendum debates, if a nationalist, would tend to dismiss Alistair Darling’s
arguments whilst agreeing with Alex Salmond, without judging the competing
arguments on their merits.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The unionist
would behave similarly, blindly agreeing with Darling and rejecting the words
of Salmond.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hence, not much change in
the polls would result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If one side
enjoys a short-term bounce, it is likely to be superficial, dissipating as
voters powerful long-term attachments kick back in.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is another specific reason why this psychological, non-rational
model theory of the voter is popular in explaining opinion on the Scottish
referendum. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Independence is an issue
akin to the question of EU membership, long considered difficult for the public
to appreciate in a thoughtful way.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Academics like to argue that because the economic and constitutional
questions of EU membership (or Scottish independence) are so complex, an
essentially lazy and ill-informed public cannot engage with them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Instead, EU membership or Independence stirs
passions that are not reconcilable with rational discourse – so the argument
goes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These passions are based on national
identities and populist distrust of the governing elite, which combine in a
heady cocktail of emotion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Whenever we
hear the media framing the debate as ‘hearts versus heads’ this line of
thinking is in play.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The assumption is
the public cannot reconcile competing (affective-cognitive) dimensions in their
support, meaning their evolving attitudes are unstable, and usually constructed
externally of them.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In the simplest
terms, rather than the voter consciously and reasonably weighing up different
aspects of the debate and making informed choices himself, the different
dimensions in his attitudes become mobilised by the media and politicians
instead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And this becomes the
explanation for changing preferences to Yes – the Yes campaign could
effectively mobilise voters key underlying attachments against Westminster,
together with Scottish nationalism.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
No campaign was always likely to struggle to mobilise Scottish voter’s economic
calculus against separation by highlighting its risks.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the Yes campaign wins, it will be said
that hearts have triumphed over minds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The result was somewhat inevitable and No’s big mistake was allowing the
referendum to happen in the first place.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">There is an alternative explanation of why attitudes have
changed in Scotland which gives more credit to the voter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It does not deny that Scottish voters’
beliefs are strongly influenced by their national identity and that many have a
passionate distrust of the British political establishment, nor does it take a
view on the worthiness of these attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It simply maintains that these emotional aspects of their support are
more closely related to their economic evaluations than the psychological
theory of voting insists.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather than
voters’ support for independence being structured along two unrelated
dimensions, attitudes are simply a mix of the voters own prior beliefs and new
evaluations.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Voters update their prior
beliefs as a ‘running-tally’ of their new evaluations of information, changing
these prior beliefs when they consider the new information to be sufficiently
valuable to affect their interests – and ignoring it if they consider it
invalid (Fiorina, 1981).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The voter isn’t
so conditioned by his background and psychological processes, rather he has
subjective views of his own and is capable of making choices.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem with the No campaign wasn’t
necessarily the dry emphasis on economic and political costs and benefits, but
that the public either didn’t receive sufficient information early enough; they judged
the message too disorganised and confused; or discounted the information because
they distrusted the source.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If No loses, it was not inevitable, their arguments weren’t necessarily
wrong but their presentation was.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
particular it needed to come from more trusted sources than the declining Westminster
mainstream elite – perhaps the Scottish voters themselves via a more
grass-roots orientated campaign.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(The
importance of grass-roots campaigning and the weakness of mainstream political
parties in influencing their voters is a major lesson for EU referendum campaigners.)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The running-tally explanation of changing attitudes demands
that voter attitudes are modelled over time, to reflect the probability
calculation that voters make between the value of their previous beliefs and
the worth of new information.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It
requires long-running time-series data with the same questions asked in each
poll, such as by the monthly British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New data, new methods and revisionist
theories about the capabilities of voters to make informed choices could all
contribute to make polling on a future EU referendum even more impactful than
the polling on the Scottish independence referendum. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">References:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
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<span style="color: #292526; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Campbell,
A, Converse, P, Miller, W and Stokes, D.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(1960). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i>The American
Voter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>University of Chicago Press.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"></span><br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fiorina,
M. (1981).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. </i>New Haven:
Yale University Press.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hooghe, L and Marks, G. (2009).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A
Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to
Constraining Dissensus.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>British
Journal of Political Science, Volume 39, Issue 1, pp 1-23.</span> <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Lodge</span>, M and Taber, C. (2013). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Rationalizing Voter</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New
York: Cambridge University Press.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My planned PhD thesis is summarised <a href="http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/one-page-summary-of-my-phd.html" target="_blank">here</a></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">. </span>It uses the ‘running-tally’ theory and
time-series methods to explain why public attitudes have moved so sharply both
for and against EU membership in the last ten years, in response to record EU
immigration and financial crisis.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span>Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-4415814568949072082014-04-17T13:45:00.002+01:002014-12-08T11:29:40.593+00:00A note of caution about political betting markets being our guide to British politics<a href="http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/17/betfair-figures-show-that-scotland-totally-dominates-current-political-betting-activity-with-virtually-no-interest-in-the-may-22-euros/" target="_blank">In Mike Smithson's recent post</a>, he draws conclusions on the relative public interest levels in different political events, derived from betting market volumes published on Betfair. Being a former trader of political markets at the Sporting Index spread betting firm (albeit a very unsuccessful one) and an ex-employee of other betting firms for many years, I've set out below a couple of concerns about the noisy claims about British politics that flow from analysing 'punting activity':<br />
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<strong>1. As with any betting market, a 'Pareto rule' applies. A very high percentage of turnover is likely to be the responsibility of a handful of customers. For this reason, using turnover as an indicator of wider public salience is fraught with danger.</strong><br />
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The Pareto effect varies between gambling products. In an online casino as much as 95 per cent of the turnover may be generated by just 5 per cent of the customer base (a fact that tells you much about the appeal to hardened gamblers of online roulette and blackjack - and why low staking limits on fixed odds betting terminals are so heavily resisted by the operators). In the slightly more egalitarian world of sports betting there might be an 85-15 proportion; maybe with political betting the ratio is more equal still. Betting companies see quite a few 'political geeks' open accounts solely to bet on politics, more out of that passion than a wider interest in gambling. They are generally low-staking, risk-adverse types who enjoy picking off the big firms in esoteric events like by-elections.<br />
Consequently, political markets see a majority of small wagers - <em>but the important point is that the overall turnover-level (as in nearly all betting markets) is still largely determined by a very small proportion of high-stakers. Turnover is therefore often an unreliable measure of mass-interest in the political event.</em> <br />
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These dominant high-end players are more interested in the attractiveness of the betting proposition than a fascination with the political event itself, although they may share that too. This is probably why the Scottish Independence Referendum is a relatively high-turnover contest (relative to other political betting heats - but not betting markets generally which I come to below). It is a two-horse race with a clear (but drifting) long odds-on favourite (No) for chunky players to get 'stuck into'. There is <a href="http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/gambler-stakes-record-200000-scottish-1988684" target="_blank">anecdotal evidence</a> of big odds-on punters refusing to countenance the wild and shocking proposition that Scotland will vote to become a separate country and are lured by the 20-30 per cent return on their stake that it won't happen. How much this is irrational 'heart not head' betting is the truly interesting aspect of the market. I remember during the 1997 General Election a similar phenomenon, when I was involved in managing that market for Sporting Index. The (then) largely Tory supporting stock-broking client base of the city spread betting firms struggled to conceive of a 100+ Blair majority. It caused arbitrage situations between the ultimately victorious IG Index layers - who took a bold and vindicated position with Labour (their market-maker was Patrick Jay, grandson of Labour premier James Callaghan), and the rest of the industry who moved their prices largely in response to customer demand - diverging all the time from the opinion poll predictions.<br />
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By comparison to the Scottish Referendum, the Euro Election for serious gamblers is an all too trappy three-horse affair, fraught with uncertainty and a lack of reliable form. If it were a horse race, it would be one of those muddling early season handicaps on heavy ground, with all the runners 'first time out'. Then throw in the UKIP runner, a classic 'dark horse' if ever there was one. Formbook defying UKIP, with disputed performance on the gallop polls (sorry ed) - is a betting proposition for the brave-hearted only. <br />
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2. <strong>Too many wider inferences about British politics are drawn from low volume, low liquidity political markets that exist for the purposes of bookmaker public relations rather than their direct profit - and also the advantage of other political interests eager to create a bandwagon for their runner.</strong> <br />
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Let's be absolutely clear here. Most political markets are tiny economic events relative to sports markets and horse races. Politicalbetting.com accurately report that over £250,000 has been matched on Betfair on the Scottish Independence contest, and claim that by the time of the vote it could be millions, which I don't doubt. However this is a fraction of what would usually be matched on an individual football or cricket match covered on TV. What is more, the 'matched bets' measure refers to the amount of bets that have been agreed on a betting exchange, where many punters open and close positions again and again to lock in a small profit or loss, inflating an aggregate figure that isn't turnover as you would imagine it in a high street betting shop. Secondly, one or two large wagers struck with the traditional bookmakers may well have been 'laid off' on the exchanges, inflating the matched bets figure.<br />
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With low-liquidity markets, very small volumes drive relatively large changes in price. Too often we hear on Twitter from politicians, pundits and the betting companies themselves that there has been a 'significant move' for a political runner. Yet in reality this price change is often next to meaningless. It is likely to be either a nervous response from an uncertain bookie to a small volume trade in a market that itself is low on volume and confidence. Then it becomes a stoked up revelation from a eager PR man, either a bookmaker seeking publicity or a political interest hyping their own success. The markets which are particularly prone to this are the weakest ones of all - such as 'next Cabinet Minister to leave', the 'next leader of a political party' or by-election results. Again and again we get this spin effect, linked up with some recently occurred political event, rather like the reporting of suspect short-term opinion poll 'bounces' that don't really demonstrate any significant long term trend but merely 'noise' in the system. There seems to be an unhealthy lack of checks and balances among all those involved - the bookmaker, the pundit, and the political interest - without any input from someone who knows about the weakness of political markets, to blow the whistle. <br />
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In the world of opinion polling, the likes of the <a href="http://pollingobservatory.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Polling Observatory</a> and <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/" target="_blank">Anthony Wells</a> provide some corrective rigour to those who might misuse the numbers, but as for the public debate involving political betting, well it resembles the Wild West where the loser is the uninitiated layman. Too often the conclusions become the contorted plaything of those with an axe to grind. <br />
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So why has yesterday's <a href="http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/04/17/betfair-figures-show-that-scotland-totally-dominates-current-political-betting-activity-with-virtually-no-interest-in-the-may-22-euros/" target="_blank">article</a> by Mike Smithson got my heckles up? Well it's a good example of how the operation of political betting markets are abused by pundits in making a political point - in this case the inference that the wider public don't care much about EU matters. The contention is this: the betting volumes on the Indy referendum dwarf those on the Euro elections which, according to Mike Smithson "really does suggest that the people of Scotland, where I am at the moment, are taking a huge interest in September’s vote. Their future is at stake." No doubt the Scots do care deeply about this big decision (look at the betting on referendum turnout), but the conclusion made from the betting market volumes on Betfair is utterly invalid. Then the cheeky political point follows (from a self-confessed Lib Dem and probable Europhile). With somewhat mock surprise, he wonders why there is not more interest in the Euro elections, "despite a possibility that the purples could come out on top". Once again, through subtle suggestion we are being reminded, via a bogus contention that bet volumes relate to wider political interest, that public salience for anything Euro is low, perhaps even among UKIP supporters. (Remember also how UKIP voters are more interested in immigration than the unrelated? EU question).<br />
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<strong>So how can political betting inform us about our politics?</strong> <br />
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There is much to be said for the idea that 'money talks'. Political betting could be a reliable guide, informing on changing public narratives towards political outcomes, but only when the markets are sufficiently liquid and recognising that key high-end punters are not representative of the general public. Divergences between political markets and opinion poll trend lines raise interesting questions of each predictor. General Election markets have the greatest volumes, particularly closer to the event, and therefore greater reliability and usefulness.<br />
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In respect of judging political interest in events, 'number of bets' rather than 'volume of bets' might be a slightly better indicator, but I don't think it ever gets published by any betting company. And there is a good reason for this. It would reveal just how low salience political markets are at the mass-level, belying claims made in press releases. When vague references to the number of political bets taken is revealed by bookies such as 'we have been inundated with wagers' or 'flooded with cash' - I feel a burning sense of scepticism. If only we could interrogate their backend bet capture systems. It would be nice to know just how many Scottish punters have engaged as Mike S suggests they have, but how will we really ever know? I would hazard a guess of a hundreds across the board via traditional online betting sites - at the very most - not thousands. I would love to be proved wrong and I don't really know these days, but don't be fooled into thinking that for the Scots the Referendum is the great betting event to rival even a Scottish Grand National at a soggy Ayr.Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-30905447232643642802013-05-06T19:08:00.003+01:002015-07-18T11:11:34.437+01:00British Euroscepticism - the same old plot? How Hugo Young’s much revered analysis is still unjustifiably influential<span style="font-family: Calibri;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">No book
since 1945 on the subject of Britain and its relationship with Europe has
received more adulation from supporters of greater political and economic
integration than Hugo Young’s 1998 classic: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This
Blessed Plot: Britain and Europe from Churchill to Blair.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Its central tenets deserve regular review as
the popularity of British Euroscepticism develops apace. Painstakingly researched and elegantly
written, it has both scholarly value and a fluent journalistic style that sets
it apart from other leading Europhilic histories such as Stephen George’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Awkward Partner</i> (1990) Roy Denman’s <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Missed Chances</i> (1996).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The thrust of the argument is broadly similar
however and not hugely original.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In summary,
it contains two core strands.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The first
is that the Europe issue has been dominated by elites, with public opinion ‘changeable,
ignorant and half-hearted’, rarely achieving ‘what pollsters call salience’ (1998:
287).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If public opinion ‘revealed a
consistent pattern’, it was that ‘the people tended to go wherever they were
led by the political class’ (508).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In
particular, one thinks of the 1975 membership referendum as a classic example
in British politics of the power of political cueing by mainstream elites on a
complicated, often abstract positional question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Now, with
the possibility of another referendum by 2018 quoted by bookmaker William Hill
as a 50/50 ‘even money’ chance, the question of the strength of today’s main
party pro-EU cue is an interesting one, especially within the context of
declining political trust in Britain, and forms the subject of my own PhD
research.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Evidence from the British
Election Study’s monthly survey of voter attitudes to EU membership since 2008
(<a href="http://alberttapper.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/has-british.html"><span style="color: windowtext;">see here</span></a>), shows decline in the pro-EU
influence of the main parties on voter opinion on EU membership, controlling
for other causal factors in EU support such as individual economic and
immigration attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Contrary to the Young view, v</span>oters are
becoming more independent of the traditional political elites in forming
judgements on Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In 1970, Lindberg
and Scheingold argued that a ‘permissive consensus’ existed among European publics
where they deferred to elites on the question.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It was within this schema that Young developed his history of Britain
and Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since the passing of the
Single European Act in 1986 and the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, passive support
for integration has been punctured into what Hooghe and Marks have termed a ‘constraining
dissensus’ (2005: 426) characterised by heightened issue salience around
periods of party elite polarisation.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Across Europe, pro-EU elites have repeatedly failed to carry public
opinion in referendum votes on further integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> For</span> Liesbet Hooghe, ‘the era in which
relatively insulated elites bargained grand treaties in the shadow of
uninterested and generally approving publics has come to an end’ (2007:5).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>During the current financial crisis, pressures
of political divergence between Eurozone and non-Eurozone countries, combined
with economic failures associated with the single currency are presenting
further challenges to the remorseless functionalist logic that more integration brings
with it ever greater peace, stability and prosperity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The recent
weakening of the 'pro-EU elite cue' might have two causes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Firstly it could be a result of the changing
supply in information to the public. Specifically, mainstream politicians in the
public mind are not now so associated with the case for continued membership
because they are not adequately making the argument.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In their place, contrary messaging is
received by the public direct from a fragmentary media.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>These competing media cues instil public
blame of EU institutions for the crisis, because of the seemingly endless drip-drip
of bad news stories from the Eurozone.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Alternatively, and more seriously for the integrationist lobby, it could
be a matter of voter demand: the public are discounting what they hear from the
main parties when making increasingly Eurosceptic judgements because they don’t
trust those parties.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The second
strand to the overall Young narrative is the normative element, a highly
critical assessment of British political elite culture. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Young is as gushing as his reserved, but often
haughty style permits about the triumph of Ted Heath’s resolute pragmatism in
gaining Britain entry to the EEC in 1973, ably supported by the influx of
pro-EC civil servants that populated the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in the
1960s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In unashamedly elitist - even
conspiratorial tones - he writes of bureaucrats like Roger Makins and Michael
Palliser that ‘the interests of their country and their careers coincided; it
was an appealing symbiosis’ (1998: 177).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">However, other
than during this heroic plot of entry, for Young, British elites have generally
got Europe horribly wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The troubled
history with the Continent is traceable to irrationalism among the British
political class, possessed by cultural attachments derived from the country’s
exceptional history of war and empire.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Principled concerns over loss of sovereignty and national identity, made
Britain awkward, often arriving late at the European party or missing the boat altogether.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For too long, he declared of British sceptics,
‘attachment to Britain’s cultural and historical differences got the better of
their political judgement’ (1998: 3).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">And here is
Claudia Trauffler’s main beef, set out in her <a href="http://bit.ly/10YO1Ad"><span style="color: blue;">book
review</span></a> of Young’s work for the LSE’s EUROPP blog, 15 years on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His argument is still in play she thinks:
‘nothing has changed, it only got worse’ – to which I wonder what she thinks
happened in between under Blair?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He was
Young’s great hope for a more visionary approach, but presumably let the side
down by not leading Britain into the single Euro currency. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One should not forget how, at the time, opponents
of British adoption were lambasted with the Young-type invective of missing
opportunities and dwindling away influence. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Right now
however, Trauffler asserts, what British influence is left continues to ‘ebb
away’ with David Cameron’s awkward and confrontational style.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not a month after his ‘threat of divorce’
speech in January, ‘Britain was outvoted in Brussels on a piece of financial
services legislation for the first time in political memory… The plot has never
been more present’ she says, being part of a long line of attitudes dating back
to the post-war years, ingrained as it is the British political psyche. </span></span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br />
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</span><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;">Her fears that the Young analysis needs reviving
should be allayed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It never went out of
fashion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His core assumptions provide
the bedrock of much subsequent discourse on the subject today, bleeding into
academia’s generally sniffy response to the recent rise of UKIP and the
dominant media narrative of the EU issue as a question of party management, largely
detached from public concerns.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A couple
of Young’s verses have merely been tweaked, but the chorus remains the same in
explaining British Euroscepticism: <i>the public are largely disinterested or
ignorant whilst Eurosceptic elites are nothing short of possessed</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With this underlying disdain for public
attitudes on the EU as superficial, any policy repositioning by parties in
response to UKIP is liable to be seen as ideological commitment rather than a
strategic response to electoral incentives. Public contempt for the main
political parties, universally agreed to be embodied in the rise of UKIP, has
apparently little relationship with a largely elitist integrationist policy on
Europe over the last 40 years – a tacit assertion surely worthy of further
research. </span></span> </span><br />
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</span><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Young had
chimed with the times of the late Eighties and early Nineties, focusing on what
Menno Spiering has called ‘literal Euroscepticism, a long-established wariness
not just of European integration, but of all things European’ (Harmsen and
Spiering, 2005: 146).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In examining the
likes of Bill Cash, he diagnosed an extreme case of a national sovereignty
obsessive, indicating ‘a weakness for nostalgia’ bordering on dependence.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Peter Mandelson recently used a similar line to
deny substance to Euroscepticism: ‘the problem we face in this country’ he concluded,
‘is not Euroscepticism at all, but Europhobia – it is a little Englander
mentality, a harkening back to a past glory’ (Landale, 2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
difficulty with this cultural take is that it is largely static.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It struggles to fully explain increasing
Euroscepticism as a response to dynamic political and economic
realities, particularly during the present financial crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is also a rather tired and disparaging view
on British cultural attitudes to Europe, vulnerable to suggestions that Britain
has moved on, in a more post-material, cognitively mobilised direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Haven’t we been holidaying across Europe for
decades now, and love Champions League football, even idolising foreign players
in our own Premier League?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And surely we
no longer draw on the experience of war to describe European political institutions
as a German racket?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Reading the
array of recent academic literature that is critical of Euroscepticism, one
senses that the Young chorus of unconcerned, ignorant publics and dysfunctional
elites is just too orthodox to question, and too obviously a cheap and easy
sneer for Europhiles to ignore.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Rather
than fundamentally reappraise it in the light of new circumstances, authors prefer to give it some new ballast, a
little more floating time in the stormy sea in which the European integration
project battles.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The public may continue
to oppose Europe, or at least support UKIP on grounds of nationalism or polite xenophobia
during difficult economic times (Ford et al, 2011), but for Eurosceptic elites,
there is a new, far more addictive, economically ideological strain to their
obsession.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are ‘falling hopelessly
in love with a distinctly American, liberal model of capitalism whose stress of
deregulation and creative destruction has long stood in stark contrast to the
supposedly sclerotic version popular on the Continent’ (Bale, 2012).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Tim Bale’s ‘<a href="http://www.e-ir.info/2012/11/15/conservative-euroscepticism-the-etiology-of-an-obsession/"><span style="color: blue;">etiology
of an obsession</span></a>’ within the Conservative Party on Europe is the Young
approach reincarnated; the current exposition of Euroscepticism as delusional.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Replacing the cultural attachments of elites
for ones of economic ideology it is hoped, might give the Young thesis a new
lease of life within the context of financial crisis.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He argues that ‘true believers’ in
Thatcherite ideology rather than ‘prosaic pragmatists’ have come to dominate
the direction of the debate, carrying with them a baggage of resentments still
felt towards the pro-EC Tory assassins of their folk leader in 1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Opposing Maastricht (on sovereignty grounds)
was the soft ‘gateway drug’ (the political equivalent of cannabis) ‘that set
the Conservative Party on the road to the hard stuff to which it is now utterly
addicted’. Euroscepticism has assumed ‘an unstoppable logic all of its own’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a similar vein, Tony Blair recently called
Euroscepticism a virus and ‘the right have got it bad… (it) makes you want to
take positions for the sake of asserting them, when a rational analysis says
you don’t need to be in that position’<a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20revival%20of%20the%20old%20plot.docx" name="_ednref1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">[i]</span></span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">In seeking a
‘holistic, nuanced and interdisciplinary approach’ to the rise of British
Euroscepticism (again, largely ignoring the role of public attitudes on party
positioning), other neo-Youngites emphasise the conducive nature of the British
political environment to Eurosceptic ‘drug-taking’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The usual target here is an inflammatory
press, brimming with EU scare stories, and institutional arrangements such as
parliamentary candidate selection and the adversarial nature of British politics,
with its numerous opportunities for factions to score political points
(Aspinwall, 2000; Sitter, 2001; Usherwood, 2002). Structures make the country sick.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For Simon Usherwood and Nick Startin (2013).
Euroscepticism has become a ‘persistent’ and ‘embedded’ phenomenon, where a rational
public debate on ‘the Union’s values’ has become difficult.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The problem isn’t the power of the
Eurosceptic case but a failure for these arguments to be engaged with
institutionally ‘through a more inclusive and popular form of integration’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">So just who
are the addicts here?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Young and his
disciples would maintain that Eurosceptics elites are hooked on either the past
or economic ideology, obscuring them from a rational appraisal of the merits of
European integration and its values.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
public are also duped, in part not caring, in part deceived by their prejudices
that find expression in hostility to immigration and a vapid political distrust.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is yearned for within this analysis is
elite leadership on Europe that puts the rational case within a new
constructive engagement, a call that Tony Blair made in his final interview as
prime minister: ‘The British people are sensible enough to know that, even if
they have a certain prejudice about Europe, they don’t expect their government
necessarily to share it or act upon it’ (Garton Ash, 2007).<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">But perhaps,
in this startlingly frank summary of the false consciousness theory, the real
roots of British Euroscepticism are to be found.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is this patronising elite attitude that is
as much the cause of Euroscepticism as the cure.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The goal of greater European union has itself
become a compulsion, exogenous of changing factual circumstances in Europe and
various economic health warnings about the Eurozone, and ultimately in denial
of validity of public attitudes.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
disjuncture has only served to weaken political trust, which in turn has
undermined the power of the pro-EU main party elite cue.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Despite the
Young analysis, it increasingly looks like the public will eventually have the
final say on Britain’s membership of the EU, and their voice is likely to be
more independent of views of the main political parties than it was in 1975.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The plot changeth, and the Young analysis,
being ultimately a normative argument about the merits of integration, lacks
the scope to understand it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Not only has
British public Euroscepticism hardened, the ability of pro-EU elites to contain
this opposition has never been weaker.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;">Garton Ash, T. (2007). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Like it
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Hooghe, L and
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
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</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Inglehart, R. (1970).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Cognitive
Mobilization and European Identity</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Comparative Politics</span> , Vol. 3, No. 1
(Oct., 1970), pp. 45-70.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
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</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-themecolor: text1;">Landale, J. (2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This
Eurosceptic Isle.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>BBC Radio 4.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>25.02.2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Available at <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJzck6c96pg"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJzck6c96pg</span></a>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Accessed 24<sup>th </sup>April 2013.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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<!--[endif]--></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Sitter,
N (2001).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The politics of opposition and European Integration in Scandinavia: Is
Euroscepticism a government-opposition dynamic?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i>West European Politics, 24:4. Pp 22-39.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Startin,
N and Usherwood, S. (2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Euroscepticism as a persistent
phenomenon.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Journal of Common Market Studies, 51:1 pp. 1-16.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
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</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Usherwood, S.
(2002).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">Opposition to the European
Union in the UK: The Dilemma of Public Opinion and Party Management.</span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Government and Opposition. </span>Vol 37, Issue 2 pgs: 211-230.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-themecolor: text1;">Young, H. (1998).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">This Blessed Plot: Britain and Europe from
Churchill to Blair. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Macmillan.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<a href="file:///C:/Users/Albs'/Desktop/A%20revival%20of%20the%20old%20plot.docx" name="_edn1" style="mso-endnote-id: edn1;" title=""><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="mso-special-character: footnote;"><!--[if !supportFootnotes]--><span class="MsoEndnoteReference"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">[i]</span></span></span><!--[endif]--></span></span></a><span style="font-size: x-small;">
Tony Blair, Business for New Europe event: ‘Europe, Britain and Business’,
Chatham House, 28<sup>th</sup></span><span style="font-size: x-small;"> November 2012.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">
</span><br />Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-79014472065961736362012-11-12T17:08:00.001+00:002014-12-08T11:30:34.304+00:00An important graph<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTCqgUuDqcFPCyXLIxC349uXN_BgqFf046BS1awf3tCwHqerIcm1xaP8jcZ0sPEWQXQzxekZOX7OwjnWBaAc9izBjOFz1Un97LJQnVUfT_QurkSka0M_hAzUAaseQW8OqEU3wS5tVKjq3w/s1600/graph+of+es.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTCqgUuDqcFPCyXLIxC349uXN_BgqFf046BS1awf3tCwHqerIcm1xaP8jcZ0sPEWQXQzxekZOX7OwjnWBaAc9izBjOFz1Un97LJQnVUfT_QurkSka0M_hAzUAaseQW8OqEU3wS5tVKjq3w/s320/graph+of+es.png" height="236" width="320" /></a></div>
Why and with what consequence?Albert Tapperhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05855902271551814482noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-462011993149266258.post-40847964650206663322011-11-01T12:01:00.000+00:002015-07-09T12:07:24.159+01:00Hopefully a helpful bibliography for anyone else studying public support for EU membership (in Britain)
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<u><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In-running Bibliography for PhD, July 2015<o:p></o:p></span></u></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Abedi, A and Lundberg. (2009).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Doomed
to failure?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>UKIP and the organisational
challenges facing right-wing populist anti-political establishment parties. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Parliamentary Affairs 62 (1): 72-87.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> <o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Achen, C. (1975). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mass
Political Attitudes and the Survey Response. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American Political Science Review 69:
1218-1231. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Achen, C. (1992).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Social psychology, demographic
variables, and linear regression: breaking the iron triangle in voting
research.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Political Behaviour, 14:
195-211.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;">Adams, J., Clark, M., Ezrow, L. and Glasgow, G.
(2006).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Are Niche Parties Fundamentally Different from Mainstream Parties?</i> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Causes and Electoral Consequences of Western European Parties’ Policy Shifts,
1976–98.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i></span><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94B2;">American Journal of
Political Science</span><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;">,
</span><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS9488;">50</span><span style="color: #231f20; mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPS94BA;">, 513–529.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anderson, C J. (1998).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">When in doubt, use proxies:
Attitudes towards domestic policies and support for European Integration. </i>Comparative
Political Studies 31 (5): 569-601.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;">Anderson, C J. and Reichert M. (1996) <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Economic Benefits and Support for Membership in the E.U.: A
Cross-National Analysis</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Italic; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Journal
of Public Policy </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;">15:
231–49.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Roman;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anderson, C J and Kaltenthaler, K. (1996).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Dynamics of Public Opinion Toward European Integration, 1973-1993.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>European Journal of International
Relations, 2(2), 175-199.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: "Palatino-Italic","serif"; font-size: 9pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Palatino-Italic; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Anderson,
Cameron. (2006). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Economic Voting and
Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Individual-Level Analysis</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American Journal of Political Science,
50: 449–463</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anderson, P. and Weymouth, A.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Insulting
the public: The British Press and the European Union.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>New York: Addison Wesley Longman. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anderson, P.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(2004).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A Flag of Convenience?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Discourse
and motivations of the London-Based Eurosceptic Press.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Chapter 7, pp 151-170 in Harmsen, R and
Spiering, M eds. (2004).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Euroscepticism: Party Politics, National
Identity and European Integration.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Rodopi, Amsterdam.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Allen, N. (2011).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Labour’s Third Term: A Tale of Two Prime
Ministers</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chapter 1 (1-37) in
Allen, N. and Bartle J. eds (2011) <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Britain
at The Polls 2010</i>. Sage Publications. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Almond, G and Verba, S. (1963).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Civic Culture: Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations. </i>Princeton:
Princeton University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Arrow, K. (1951).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Social Choice and Individual Values</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New York: John Wiley and Sons. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ashcroft, M. (2011a).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Project Blueprint – Winning a
Conservative Majority in 2015</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Accessed 15 July 2012 via </span><a href="http://lordashcroft.com/pdf/14052011_project_blueprint.pdf"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://lordashcroft.com/pdf/14052011_project_blueprint.pdf</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ashcroft, M. (2011b).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Turn down the volume on Europe or
risk losing the next election</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Accessed 15 July 2012 via </span><a href="http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/10/lord-ashcroft-turn-down-the-volume-on-europe-or-lose-the-next-election.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2011/10/lord-ashcroft-turn-down-the-volume-on-europe-or-lose-the-next-election.html</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Aspinwall, M. (2002).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Structuring Europe: Powersharing
Institutions and British Preferences on European Integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Political Studies 48, number 3: 415-442.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 9.0pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bagozzi, R. & Edwards, J.
(1998). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A general approach for
representing constructs in organizational research</i>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Organizational
Research Methods</span>, <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">1</span>,
45-87.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-size: 14pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Baker, D et al.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>(2008).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Euroscepticism in the British Party System: ‘A source of Fascination,
Perplexity, and Sometimes frustration’.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Taggart, P and Szczerbiak, A eds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(2008).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Opposing Europe? The Comparative
Party Politics of Euroscepticism</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Volumes 1 (Case Studies and Country Surveys).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oxford University Press, pp. 93-116.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Baker, D. and Seawright, D. (1998).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Britain
For and Against Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clarendon Press, Oxford.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bale, T. (2012). <i>Conservative
Euroscepticism: The Etiology of an obsession. </i> Article published
on e-International Relations. </span></span><a href="http://www.e-ir.info/2012/11/15/conservative-euroscepticism-the-etiology-of-an-obsession/"><span style="color: blue; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">http://www.e-ir.info/2012/11/15/conservative-euroscepticism-the-etiology-of-an-obsession/</span></span></a><span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> Accessed 24 April 2013.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bale, T. (2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Eastleigh
By-Election: Worst of All Worlds for the Tories</span></i><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1/3/2013.
Article in the Huffington Post, accessed 26 June 2013:</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/tim-bale/eastleigh-by-election-david-cameron-ukip_b_2787990.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/tim-bale/eastleigh-by-election-david-cameron-ukip_b_2787990.html</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Barker, C.
(2005).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Cultural Studies: Theory and Practice</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>London: Sage.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bartolini, S.
(2005).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Restructuring Europe: Centre Formation, System Building and Poltical
Structuring between the Nation State and the European Union.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cambridge University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Benedetto, G. (2008).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Explaining the Failure of
Euroscepticism in the European Parliament. </i>In Taggart, P and Szczerbiak, A
eds.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(2008).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Opposing
Europe? The Comparative Party Politics of Euroscepticism</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Volumes 2 (Comparative and Theoretical
Perspectives.)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oxford University
Press.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pgs. 127-150.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Benhabib, (2002).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Political Theory and Political Membership in
a Changing World.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In Katzelson, I and Milner, H eds. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Political Science: The State of the
Discipline.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>New York and London:
W.W. Norton, 404-432. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Benn, A.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The End of an Era: Diaries, 1980-1990.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Hutchinson.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bentler, P. (1990).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Comparative Fit Indices in Strucrtural
Models.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Psychological Bulletin,
107:238.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Berelson, B, Lazarsfeld, P and McPhee, W (1954).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Voting:
A Study of opinion formation in a presidential campaign. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Trebuchet MS"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt;">Blondel, J, Sinnott,R and Svensson, P.
(1998).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">People and Parliament in the European Union: Participation, Democracy
and Legitimacy.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Clarendon Press,
Oxford; New York.</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bogdanor, V. (2012).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">British Euroscepticism</i>. Social Europe
Journal, 26/04/2012 accessed 20/6/2012 online </span><a href="http://www.social-europe.eu/2012/04/british-euroscepticism/"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">http://www.social-europe.eu/2012/04/british-euroscepticism/</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;">Borisyuk, G. et al. (2007). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Voter
support for minor parties: Assessing the social and political context of voting
at the 2004 European elections in Greater London</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Italic;">Party Politics </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;">13(6): 669–694.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Brineqar, A, Jolly, S and Kitschelt, H.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(2004).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Varieties of capitalism and
political divides over European integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></i>In <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">European Integration and
political conflict. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Eds. Gary Marks
and Marco Steenbergen.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cambridge.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Cambridge University Press, 62-69.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoEndnoteText" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: AdvPSSAB-R;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">European
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Hooghe, L. (2003).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Europe Divided: Elites v Public Opinion on
European Integration. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>European Union
Politics 4(3) 281-305.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Hooghe, L and Marks, G. (2004).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Does
Identity or Economic Rationality drive public opinion on European integration?</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Political Science and Politics, Vol</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">. 37, No. 3 (Jul., 2004), pp. 415-420<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Hooghe, L and Marks, G. (2005).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Calculation, community and cues: Public
Opinion on European integration</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>European Union Politics 6(4): 419-433.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Hooghe, L. (2007).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What Drives Euroskepticism?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Party-Public Cueing, Ideology and Strategic
Opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>European Union
Politics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vol 8 (1): 5-12.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Hooghe, L and Marks, G. (2009).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">A
Postfunctionalist Theory of European Integration: From Permissive Consensus to
Constraining Dissensus.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>British
Journal of Political Science, Vol 39, Issue 1, pp 1-23. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Holmes, M.
ed. (1996). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Eurosceptical Reader. </i>Basingstoke:
Macmillan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Holmes, M.
ed. (2002). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Eurosceptical Reader 2. </i>Basingstoke:
Palgrave. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span class="reference-text"><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Hu, L. and
Bentler, P (1999). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Cutoff criteria for
fit indexes in covariance structure: Conventional criteria versus new
alternatives.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Structural equation
modelling, 6(1): 1-55.</span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Inglehart, R. (1970).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Cognitive Mobilization and European Identity</i>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Comparative
Politics</span> , Vol. 3, No. 1 (Oct., 1970), pp. 45-70.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">Inglehart, R, Rabier, J-R and Reif, K (1991).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Evolution of Public Attitudes toward European Integration: 1970-1986.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>In Reif and Inglehart eds. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Eurobarometer: The Dynamics of European
Public Opinion. </i>London: Macmillan.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
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<!--[endif]--></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Inglehart, R. (1977).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
Silent Revolution. </i>Princeton: Princeton University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">IPPR (2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 19.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">UKIP is becoming the
patriotic party of England</span></i><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 19.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Press Release, 3<sup>rd</sup> May 2013.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Accessed 23<sup>rd</sup> June 2013: </span><a href="http://www.ippr.org/press-releases/111/10732/ukip-is-becoming-the-patriotic-party-of-england"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 19.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.ippr.org/press-releases/111/10732/ukip-is-becoming-the-patriotic-party-of-england</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 19.5pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold; mso-font-kerning: 18.0pt; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> </span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 6pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Ipsos-MORI
(2013) <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Most important issue facing
Britain today.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Issue tracker
available at </span><a href="http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=56&view=wide"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=56&view=wide</span></span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Accessed 17/03/2013.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Ivarsflaten, E, Blinder S and Ford, R.
(2010).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Anti-Racism Norm in Western European Immigration Politics: Why we
need to consider it and how to measure it. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="EN" style="color: #32322f; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-GB; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Journal of
Elections, Public Opinion & Parties, 2010, Vol.20(4), p.421-445</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Jackson, J. (1975). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Issues, party choices and presidential
votes. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>American Journal of Political
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Janssen, J. (1991).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Postmaterialism,
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;">John, P. & Margetts, H. (2009). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The latent support for the extreme right in British politics</i>. </span><i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Italic;">West European Politics </span></i><span style="mso-bidi-font-family: TimesTen-Roman;">32(3): 496–513.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br />
Johns, R. (2010).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Measuring Issue Salience in British Elections: Competing
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pp. 143-158.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="Default" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Johns,
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Study Website.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><a href="http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/settled-wills-the-psychology-behind-stable-referendum-polls-by-dr-rob-johns-university-of-essex/#.VBKVtk10ytV"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/settled-wills-the-psychology-behind-stable-referendum-polls-by-dr-rob-johns-university-of-essex/#.VBKVtk10ytV</span></span></a><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"> Accessed: 12/09/2014.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Jowell, R, and Hoinville G (1976).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Britain
into Europe.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Public Opinion and the EEC.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Croon Helm, 1976.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Karp, J and Bowler, S. (2006).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Broadening
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Karp, J, Bowler, S and Banaducci, S.
(2003).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">To know it is to love it: Satisfaction with democracy in the European
Union. </i>Comparative Political Studies, 36(3): 271-292.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Katwala, S. (2014).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Is
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</span></i>New Statesman, 3 April 2014.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Accessed 4 May 2014 at </span><a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/nigel-farage-hurting-eurosceptic-cause"><span style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="color: blue;">http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/nigel-farage-hurting-eurosceptic-cause</span></span></a><span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Katz, R and Mair, P. (1995).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Changing Models of Party
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Kaufmann, B and Waters M. (2004). (Eds).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Direct
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;">Kellner, P. (2012).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The UK
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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Kenny, D, <span class="grame">&</span> McCoach, D.
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<span lang="EN-US" style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Calibri","sans-serif"; font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Kenny, D. (2014).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Measuring
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Oborne, P. (2012).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Euro’s ‘Guilty Men’ are now steering
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">O’Brien, N and Wells, A.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;">ONS / Office for National Statistics (2013). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">UK</i> <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Immigration
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- Accessed 24th February 2013<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: black; mso-themecolor: text1;"><o:p></o:p></span></i></span></div>
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<span style="mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Oppermann, K. (2008).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Blair Government and Europe: The Policy
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Rallings C. and Thrasher M. (2009).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Another
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Riker, W. (1982).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Liberalism and populism: A confrontation
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Riker, W.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(1986). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Art of Political Manipulation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>New Haven: Yale University Press.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Rohrschneider, R. (2002).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Democracy Deficit and Mass
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Rudolph, T. (2003).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Who’s Responsible for the Economy?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The formation and consequences of
responsibility attributions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>American
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanchez-Cuenca. (2000).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Political Basis of Support for
European Integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>European Union
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanders, D. (1990).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Losing an Empire and Finding a Role.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Macmillan.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanders, D. (2000) <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Real Economy and the Perceived Economy: How
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanders, D. (2012)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanders, D, Bellucci, P,
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sanders, D and Toka, G.
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Scharpf, F. (1997).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">European
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></o:p></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Scharpf, F. (1999).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Governing in Europe: Effective and
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Schattschneider, E. (1960).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Semi-Sovereign People. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Schneider, G and Weitsman, A.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sears, D and Funk, C.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(1993).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Role of Self-Interest in
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in Experimental Social Psychology 24: 1-91.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Shephard, R. (1975).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Public
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: black; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-themecolor: text1;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Serricchio, F, Tsakatika, M and
Quaglia, L. (2013).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Euroscepticism and the Global Financial Crisis. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Journal of Common Market Studies.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Volume 51, Number 1: 51-64.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Shore, P. (2000).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Separate Ways: The Heart of Europe.</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>London: Duckworth.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Silver, N. (2012).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Signal and the Noise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The art and science of prediction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Penguin.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Simon, H. (1985).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Human Nature in Politics: The Dialogue of
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sinnott – see Niedermayer and Sinnott<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sitter, N. (2002).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Opposing Europe: Euroscepticism, Opposition
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</span>Brighton, UK.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sussex European
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Slater, M.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
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<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Smith, A. (2005).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">‘Set in the Silver Sea’: English National
Identity and European Integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></i>Paper
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none;">
<span style="color: #292526; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-size: 8.0pt; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sniderman,
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Political Psychology </i>ed. J Kuklinski. New York: Cambridge University Press.<br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[if !supportLineBreakNewLine]--><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" />
<!--[endif]--><i><o:p></o:p></i></span></span></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sniderman et al. (2004). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Predisposing
Factors and Situational Triggers: Exclusionary Reactions to Immigrant
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span style="font-family: Calibri;">Steenbergen, M, Edwards, E and De Vries C (2007),<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Who’s Cueing Whom?:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mass elite linkages and the future of
European Integration.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>European Union
Politics 2007, 8: 13: 13-35<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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